EU looked a little cleaner to me, i went short at 1.3112, looking for 1.3040
Got the 1-31, had to suffer being charged for trading through my mobile ( 1 pip to open a trade, 1 pip to close it ) but still worked out +33. I won’t trade anymore now until I get to look at the charts when I get home.
Only reason I took the 1-3065 long was because I meant to leave the buy order for that in place before I left for work this morning but I forgot. So when price dropped to it I knew I would trade it. But I’m still not confident enough to trade through my phone’s chart unless my levels have been pre-determined.
Just noticed what I think is an interesting little predicament surrounding that trade Sanj. Your target is 1-3040 and the daily S1 comes in at 1-3046 according to what I can make out on my phone. As I write this price is around 1-3055, so would you let it ride to take every pip and run the risk it hits S1 and turns? Or do you think “nope, that’ll do me nicely.” and cut it off manually, banking 55 ish pips.
I think that’s a very interesting little scenario. Interested to here thoughts on that one, assuming price hasn’t already hit 1-3040 by the time I post this
They say that bad luck comes in 3’s. but for the purpose of this little tale, you may feel free to substitute the “bad luck” part for the expression, " blindingly stupid mistakes".
As I mentioned a few posts ago, I went long EU at 1-3065 earlier today. I used my iPhone to make the trade. The reason I used my phone to make that particular trade was before I went to work this morning, I looked at my charts and thought, “if price drops to 1-3065, I would buy at that price.”
So I left a buy order on my platform for 1-3065, targeting 1-3165, with my stop just below S1 at 1-3042, or so I thought !!
Later on today I checked my phone and saw that price was around 1-3060, so now I’m thinking, “Good, the order will be filled” so I checked my phone app, but found that I had no open positions. So I assumed I had just forgot to put the order on properly, which was strange because i remembered doing it.
So now I put the order on through my phone, which by now, coincidentally, was at 1-3065. And it did go up and hit my new target, which was 1-31.
But now I have came home and opened up my trading platform on my PC and guess what ??? I DID put the original order on at 1-3065. So what went wrong ??? Couldn’t work it out, put the order on and after price filled the order, it rose to around 1-3120 ish.
Then I spotted my mistake, and yes, it was MY mistake. Buy at 1-3065, but instead of putting my target at 1-3165, I’ve put that at 1-3065 as well !!! Order got filled at 1-30649, and then closed at 1-30652, which meant I made a whopping 3 cents for my trade.
So hopefully I’ve now filled my quota of 3 blunders for the mean time, and some kind of normal service can now be resumed as soon as possible.
HoG
Frustrating day so far for E/U bears. EZ stock markets down 2.5-5%. US down 1.5% and we’re basically unchanged since LO. Must be a fair bit of wood to chop through ahead of 1.30.
Think we’ve all made a balls out of a limit order at one time or another. At least you made a few cent from it!
I’m trying to console myself with those words right now PipBandit, but I’m not too sure it’s working mate. Maybe a good cup of tea will help !!
This is ‘The Traders Arms’ Hog… we’ll have none of that tea drinking in here! Just bought a three litre bottle of cider. :18:
Still think its unlikely that PA will break the double bottom on EU. Personally, I’m looking for longs… 3053 would catch my interest.
I fear it may be confession time RC, you’ve “outed” me. I’m Tee-Total, have been for almost 15 years. These days a good cup of Tea and a chocolate hob-nob is about as wild as it gets LOL !! Wonder what the reaction of the locals would be if we renamed it The Trader’s Arms - And Cafe ???
Question for you. I read a thing on the Bloomberg App today ( I’m allowed to mention Bloomberg just now cos ST is away right now LOL ) saying that the Top 3 Most Accurate FX analysts over the last year, have all came out and said the EU would be down around 1-24 to 1-26 by year end.
Interestingly though, Analysts 4 to 9 have all said the EU will be around 1-35 year end.
So interested to hear your thoughts on the top 9 most accurate forecasters being so wildly divided on that topic.
HoG
Ah ‘anal-lists’ my favourite gripe! LOL. They tell you what will happen and when it doesn’t explain in great detail why. Pretty sure they were all weather forcasters in a previous life! :18: Personally, I’m 100% tech’s even to the point of not looking to the news save NFP and interest rates when I’ll sit on the sidelines. I look to h1, h4 and daily, but just for you Hog I’ve pulled up a monthly EU chart and overlaid it with my preferred poisons… hmm… top was 4942 (05/11) bottom was 2623 (01/12) so I’d be looking north from where were at… split the diff… 3700 at least!
Strange you should pick 1-37 RC. As you’ve probably read I’m running my own daily average pip range from the first day of trading 2010 until the present. ( currently now 154 ) Just as a matter of interest ( or boredom probably ) I’ve just averaged out the closing ASK price from the same date (4 Jan 2010 ) until now. Average daily closing price is actually just under 1-36.
Probably means absolutely sod all, but thought I’d add it anyway.
With you on the looking for longs though. But right now I like GU better than EU. Seems to have found a pretty solid bottom around the 1-58 area according to my 4 Hour.
Also if I was a braver man, I’d think about a long EUR/CHF since it is so close to the floor. The dip below it recently puts me off though. That and the fact that I reckon I only have around another 40 years to live max, and that may not be long enough for the EUR/CHF to move more than 3 pips.
You crack me up Hog… Eur/Chf… LOL… I’ve less time than you by a long stretch!
Yep 4h GU looks pretty solid at 58 but the 1h high is 5875 so expect Asian to head south! LOL
Sorry for the late reply, hectic day, had to fly back from the UK to Poland (my temporary home) where im doing my work placement for university at the moment… Only literally just walked in to my place and unpacked, and its now 12.15am as i write this, im due to be up in 5 and 1/2 hours to do my daily analysis for tomorrow and get ready for work - joy!
Just had a look at my trade, seems my analysis was sound - the drop did happen, but unfortunately, i had to leave for the airport, so i took off 1/4 of my trade and locked BE when i was +20 pips and just let it ride to see what happened, had nothing to lose at that point and couldnt monitor or check it after that… Looking back at the charts now, price came back up, literally stopped me out nearly to the pip, and continued collapsing around 50 pips in my direction lol…
It wouldnt have hit my TP anyway but still could have closed out with more profit than BE+1… But ah well…
If im completely honest, since starting trading, til date, i haven’t used or thrown up, or even looked into daily pivots. I understand their widely used by a lot of people on here but i’ve never really looked at them tbh. Now i trade purely based on PA, S+R, fibs, and a little of volumes… Only the last 4 weeks of my trading (since implementing some proper trading rules) have i made my first month ending with profit - not that thats anything to go by lol…
Im aiming to go live with around £200 (which is about all a student like me can afford atm lol) in around July when i move back to the UK for good… So up until then this is really just my practice stages… Currently i actually feel ok with what i am using so far to trade, but i’ve been meaning to look into daily pivots to see if i could fit them into my way of trading - as this practice time should be used for exactly this, experimenting…
Im pretty tired to do any analysis atm so will save it for my 5.30am alarm! Off to bed for me, will post tomorrow…
Happy trading!
Are you sure it’s me ?? Or have you made a start on that 3 litre bottle of Cider you mentioned earlier ?? LOL !!
I think pivots are really nothing more than another set of S&R to look at Sanj. It did cross my mind at one point to do some sort of analysis to find what the percentages were of how often price turns at a certain pivot support or resistance level. Didn’t do it though because I’m not entirely sure there is a law there to be obeyed anyway.
But asking you the question did sort of remind me of a question Nikitafx once asked on the Beginner’s Disaster thread. In short she basically asked, " at what point of a trade do you start to think - yeah I’ll just take that thank you very much," or do you always hang on to either Target or Stop.
Each to their own I suppose, but one “skill” I still struggle with is moving my stop to BE and then letting the trade run. I suppose I fear price turning around and taking back what was on offer at one point. I tend to just shut a trade down when it’s giving me a profit I’m happy with.
Anyway, not too far away from bed time for me as well.
Talk Later
Ok - couldnt resist some bedtime analysis of my trading today… Overall down just under 2% - which yeah, sucks lol
My EU trade i think analysis wise for me anyway was spot on (despite getting the TP wrong), it’s just my entry should have been much better…
Had my entry had been at the close of the almost perfect shooting star, bouncing off the daily high, back into the 62-79 fib zone, i wouldnt have been stopped out and would have bagged more pips even if i had only managed to close the trade right now…
At the time i was actually packing for the airport and thats why i missed the shooting star entry and just managed to get in just before it broke the 62 fib… So really, analysis was ok, it was my own fault i lost out today…
Chose my TP based on the 127 fib extension… Guess i need more practice picking my TP’s…
Ok now im really off to bed LOL!
Nope deff not you Hog… I was refering to your dry humour… that pair is… err… how shall I put it, rather slow! LOL Yep well into that bottle now! :18:
Enjoy my friend, time for me to hit the pillows. I see nothing in the charts that makes me want to get involved so it’s a night of dreaming about other things rather than candlesticks and pivots.
That being said, my trading platform has it’s own Dow Jones FXCM Dollar index and to be honest I think it’s showing a little sign of weakness right now. It’s only 4 points below it’s fractal high on the 1 hour and it may tempt me to go for a little long GU or EU. But I think bed wins RC.
Goodnight, talk to you later.
HoG
Agreed sometimes rest is more important. Somehow though I think your plattform is calling your name. I think I can hear it from here. Come on HOG you know you want to lol gnite man