The Vulcan Crypto Trading Journal - AI Projects & Futures Trading

[MikeVulcan]

Hi everyone, I am MikeVulcan.

I have been a long term member and inconsistent trader for many years with a mainly crypto focus since 2017.

On 8th November 2017 i place my first trade on bitcoin at $7291 which would be in the early phases of the bull market during that cycle. That would have been fine however i continued buying in increasing amounts with my biggest purchase coming on 16th December 2017…The cycle top was the next day.

After buying the top, it was only the right of passage for a new trader to then sell the bottom after it crashed.
I have learnt a lot since then and this will be my third “Crypto Cycle”.

I will use this thread to document and journal my trades with two main focuses:

• Trading A Portfolio for AI Related Crypto Projects (Mostly Spot Positions)
• Crypto Futures Trades

[MikeVulcan]

AI Crypto Related Portfolio

Although not my main focus in my trading, this will most likely be the main focus of my journaling here.

The idea behind it is simple…

The crypto market historically has followed a 4 year cycle which evolves around the Bitcoin halving due to laws of supply and demand.

The last 3 cycles:

9th July 2016
Bitcoin Price on halving date: $648
Total Market Cap on halving date: 10.51 Billion

Bitcoin high during cycle: $19,688
525 days after halving
Total market cap peak 546 days after halving

11th May 2020
Bitcoin price on halving date:$8624
Total Mark Cap on halving date: 235 Billion

Bitcoin high during cycle: $69,214
546 days after halving
Total market cap peak 546 days after halving

20th April 2024
Bitcoin price on halving date: $64,000
Total Market Cap on halving date: 2.31 Trillion

Date after 546 days will be: 18th October 2025.

During every cycle there is “alt coin season” and normally always one particular type of crypto whch performs the best. This year I am assuming it will be AI related crypto projects.

I have made a list of AI related cryptos which i have will have in my portfolio.
They are (In order of highest to smallest market cap):
TAO
RENDER
FET
VIRTUAL
QUBIC
AI16Z
PAAL
AIXBT
NMR
GOAT
ALI
SPEC
FREYSA
HGPT

Please note - I have not done a lot of research on most of these only that they have some relation to AI. Researching crypto projects is not my strong point and most likely never will be.

I have made sure the list includes a mixture of bigger and smaller market caps to try and maximise any gains and cover a broad range.

In the next few posts I will explain the TA I am using and also my April recap.

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio

Basic Technical Analysis:

Timeframes:
Daily, 12 Hour & 4 Hour

Indicators:
200 HMA
200 SMA
12 + 21 EMA

Support + Resistance:
Drawn on candle closes of daily chart

Trend Lines:
Drawn mostly from candle wicks on daily chart

The 200 HMA on the daily chart will act as one of my main decisions for entering and exiting positions.
When a daily candle closes above the 200 HMA, I will use this as a strong indicator to be in a position.
When a daily candle closes below the 200 HMA, i will use this as a strong indicator to fully close the position.

I also use the 200HMA on the 4 hour and 12 hour to close positions / trim profits and for re-entering.

Other invalidations which will lead me to closing positions - partially or fully are:
Closing below a daily resistance level
Closing below a strong daily trend line

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio

April Recap:

This was my first month trading this portfolio.

Number of trades taken: 37
$ Invested: 1680
Portfolio value at end of month: $2107
Profit: $427
ROI: 25.4%
Holding BTC for the month comparison: 14%

Biggest winning position: TAO
Bought: $675
Sold: $970

Biggest losing position: PAAL
Bought: $125
Sold: $106

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio

In short April was a good month, most entries were well made and the AI related crypto projects performed very well - particularly TAO, VIRTUAL & AIXBT.

I have made a few sub optimal decisions so far in May which involved taking profits too early on VIRTUAL & AIXBT and a few poor trades on RENDER & FET.

These mistakes were mainly due to allowing my bias for my short term futures leverage trading interupt my decision making for this portfolio.
My leverage trading bias for the past week was for a pullback and this resulted in me selling some of my position early away from my trading plan.

AIXBT:
I missed out on 44% move up on AIXBT because of exiting too early and not following my plan (although this has since retraced 14%.

VIRTUAL:
Sold prior to the recent 44% move up.

Once i had went off my plan, it took me a little time to decide how i would guide myself back on course. As i type this i think i am back to a position i am happy with, more updates to come.

Part of trading as i have learned:

• Review the trades
• Accept the mistake
• Make a thought out decision how to get back to my plan
• Move on with no emotions regarding the losses/missed gains the mistake has caused

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio

End of week market overview:

Total Market Cap:
Hit resistance at the 200 day SMA, looking to see if it can hold above the daily resistance level at 2.92T.
A potential move down to the previous daily resistance level at 2.82T would see a good pull back across the board for potential buying opportunities.
We have cross below the 200 HMA on the 4 hour chart and will be looking for a close above the give me confirmation that any pull back that happens is over.

[MikeVulcan]

Total 3:

The total 3 chart which is the same as the total market cap BTC and ETH removed shows a similar picture to the Total chart.

Eyeing up the 781.13B level which was the previous daily resistance and also will align with the 200 SMA on the 4 hour chart.

Alternatively, we make a quick turnaround I will be looking to enter position on closing above the 4 hour 200 HMA.

[MikeVulcan]

Others.D

This is the chart for the crypto market excluding the top 10 coins to provide a more alt coin focus.

We failed to break the previous high at around the 8.21% level which lead to my short bias i mentioned in my previous post. Although my execution of this bias has been quite terrible tbh - More on that later.

After rejecting at the 8.21% level and breaking below the upward trend line we then broke structure around 8.10% level and came back to retest before further downward movement.

This coincided with a lot of crypto’s breaking below the 200 HMA on the 4 hour which lead to me taking some profits on positions - but again could have been executed much better.

Current in a range between the 7.67% and 8.21% level.

Looking for a reaction if we hit the 7.67% level which is the daily support and would also be a retest of the diagnal downward trend line.

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio

My TAO Plan

TAO is the biggest market cap coin in my crypto portfolio and is the coin i will be looking to take the biggest position in with possibly upto 50% of my portfolio going into this.

I recently sold half of my TAO position around the $360 level when price crossed below the 200 HMA.

My current portolio is 33% invested and 73% in cash.
19% of this is positioned in TAO with up to 31% more to add.
My break even price for my current TAO holdings is $172.

Plan moving forward:
Wait and observe price action if it comes down to the $342 level where the dotted black line is.
The same applies to the potential testing of the upwards diagnal green trend line.

If we lose the $326 to $340 area then price will most likely com back down to test the previous daily resistance at $270.

Conversely if price manages to hold above the previous daily resistance level its currently sitting on at $355, then i will be looking at the $464 level for the next stop with the daily 200 SMA as a hurdle on the way.

I will look to establish a balance between not rushing into a position whilst also being cautious not to miss an explosive move up.
Before entering into a position i will most likely wait for price to at least close above the 1 Hour 200 HMA and potentially also the 4 Hour 200 HMA.

As always i will be observing the TAO chart together with the TOTAL, TOTAL 3, OTHERS.D & USDT Charts to help me come to a greater understanding of likely next moves.

[MikeVulcan]

Crypto Futures Leverage Trade - May Trade #1

AI16Z Short
Entry: 0.2559
Stop loss: 0.2764
Risk: 1% / Half unit of risk
First TP: 0.2397
Second TP: 0.2145

Futures leverage trades are taken on a different account to the AI Portfolio.

[MikeVulcan]

First trade of the month lost .
0/1
Moving onto the next one

[MikeVulcan]

Crypto Futures Leverage Trade - May Trade #2

BNB Short
Entry: 596.1
Stop loss: 607.8
Risk: 1% / Half unit of risk

[MikeVulcan]

Lost - 0/2 for month of May

[MikeVulcan]

AI Rleated Crypto Portfolio Update:

A little busy for full update right now but as mentioned above, we got the reaction on OTHERS.D at around the 7.67% level and on TAO at the black dotted line.
I am now almost fully invested in this portfolio.

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio Update:

So great day for the portfolio so far with a lot of big green candles.

Status of Portfolio:

Start amount first month (April): $1680
End of first month: $2107
Additional amount added: $393
Start of second month (May): $2500
Current Value (08/05/25): $2621

Current Portfolio:
TAO: 38%
FET: 8%
RENDER: 7%
VIRTUAL: 7%
AI16Z: 6%
AIXBT: 5%
ALI: 4.8%
HGPT: 4.7%
QUBIC: 4%
GOAT: 3%
FAI: 2%
NMR: 2%
PAAL: 2%
USDT: 2%

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio Update:

TAO Review:
So in my last TAO review i mentioned if observing price around the $342 level.

Well we got the move up and we are not at the hurdle of 1 day 200 SMA, which if we can pass means that $464 is the likely next stop.
Will be interesting to see the reaction, I am happy as long as we stay above the 4 Hour 200 HMA.
If we go below i will most likely look to close some of position.

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio Update:

VIRTUAL has had a very good day with a 38% move up which this time i was in.

Carried out one of my favourite patterns (which recently have not been to good to me on my futures trading - more info on the later another day).

It broke above the a previous 1 day resistance at 1.41659, then came back down to test it before continuing higher.
This also aligned with the 1 day 12 EMA and the 1 day 200 SMA - A lot of confluence.

Looking for a nice strong candle close and a clean hold above the previous local high here.
Also look

ing for it to hold above the 4 hour 200 HMA.

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio Update:

OTHERS.D Review:
In my last Others.D update i mentioned the range between 7.67% and 8.21%.
I also mentioned i would look for a reaction at the 7.67% level which is the daily support.
We got a good strong reaction with price breaking up and closing above the 4 Hour 12EMA, 21 EMA and the diagnal downward trend line.

We have also now closed above the 4 Hour 200 HMA.

Currently at a point of interest with previous support and resistance at the 7.97% which is about 50% of the range from swing low to swing high.

Will be keeping a keen on this level and i may look to close partial position if the 4 hour price closes below 200 HMA of a rejection at this level coupled with the individual AI Cryptos closing below their respective 200 HMAs.

Ideal next target would be around the 8.19% level

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio Update:

OTHERS.D:
Well it did not waste any time getting back up to the daily resistance / range high at around the 8.21% level.
Currently looking like respecting the resistance a little high with at least a slight rejection so far.
Will be interesting to see what happens here, a break to the upside of this level would be important.

[MikeVulcan]

AI Related Crypto Portfolio

USDT.D Update:
Conversely to OTHERS.D - The USDT.D chart has hit daily support at around 4.60% level and is also around the daily 200 sma level.

We blew straight past the 4.88% support level, so could possibly come back up to test this level before a continuation back down.

Two very interesting and strong levels here both on USDT.D and OTHERS.D.

I am staying in my positions for now - Waiting to observe the reaction rather than guessing the reaction.