The WinPsych Experiment

Thanks for the response BlueHenry and yes those boring 8hr jobs can put a real dent in your trade journal reading time :wink:

You came up with some great points and that is exactly what brainstorming is all about. Its both a practical and a creative task which is why there is no structure to it. You throw everything out there, the ideas, the concerns, the solutions to problems which may or not happen way down the line or to things that may happen in 10 minutes time.

“In your mind you can plan the wedding, but in real life you still have to ask the girl for a first date!” :18:

We have all at some point jumped from step 1 to step 75 only to find out we have to go back because we don’t have something we didn’t even know existed which later became known as step 46 :slight_smile:

As you may know, Brainstorming is part of a larger process called Project Management and its this process of project management that makes the difference between having an idea in your head and having that idea play out in the real world. It runs all the way from inception to delivery of the final “product” as it were.

A guy doing a simple project on his own will only need the basics of project management and will probably be using them without even knowing and that’s great, why complicate things? The more people you involve and/or the more complicated the task the more the value of project management rises. The shape of any team, organisation or collaboration should always reflect the task being undertaken and will change, grow and mature just as the problem which you are essentially trying to solve will.

Every idea, every concern and every problem you come up with in Brainstorming is valuable because it comes from the viewpoint of your own unique experience. I will save all these points you bring up and we will go through them all at the right time in the process. Nothing is wasted, yes some things will be discarded but only because we have found a better or more appropriate solution.

I am not saying be patient. I am saying be eager! The process will get us there and as Tyrone suggested we will keep it simple.

When i get a spare moment today i will post my answers to the questions i posed to all of you and then we can get this thing rolling:)

[B]What has been your path in Forex so far?[/B]

Common story, started on the low time frames 1min 10min mostly with the usual indicators etc. Got in a lot of screen time. Moved up to the higher time frames 4hr and Daily using price action alone which really helped when I moved back down to the 10min 30 min 1hr type time frames. Longest time in a trade 26 days…and I will never do it again! (even though it was a winner), hence the move back down. On my travels I learned to trade the news (Draghi and Novotny‘s speeches especially were trade-able/ profitable). Not only the 5 seconds after a speech, announcement or figure is posted, but I eventually noticed patterns 1hr ,1 day ,2 days after these events. I also learned to trade what I call sentiment lifecycles.

[B]What qualities or skills outside of Forex do you think you would bring to a team?
[/B]

Apart from the usual “filler” lol

I have background in Electronic Engineering both hardware and software which puts me on level pegging with Florists, Window Cleaners and Lawyers in the world of forex however, it does give me transferable skills. Electronics at design level is 90% Mathmatics. I know about statistics, probability, distribution curves etc etc which is why some of the statements in threads I read about “Consistency” seem inaccurate.

Being able to derive a formula from first principles gives you a slight advantage over someone who only knows how to use the formula. I have also been involved in medium and large commercial projects at every level so the project environment is one I am very familiar with.
I will add, at school maths was always my worst subject , I was a humanities and languages type of a guy with a passion for sports, so of course I chose a maths based degree at university and continued into the profession. Did it give me satisfaction knowing that my worst subject became equal to and in some cases better than the best subject (Maths) of my colleagues? At the time yes…now, I couldn’t care less lol It has however given me a unique skillset and perspective in an environment where everyone else’s skills and perspectives are incredibly similar, this helped with promotions and delivering projects etc…the beginnings of a contrarian perhaps?

[B]What is your current philosophy regarding Forex? [/B]

I think that Forex like most; if not all markets/ games or businesses have been designed to separate Group (A) from their money and put it in to the hands of Group (B). The 95% that lose fund the industry and everyone who makes money from it. If I was designing a game to consistently extract the maximum amount of money from a largest possible group of people over an extended period of time it would have to fullfill various criteria. Forex fullfills many of those criteria.
A decent frequency of wins to for the player to keep them in the game , mathmatics, statistics, muliptiple computer screens, charts etc to make you feel like you are doing work and various levels to make you feel like you are progressing if only in knowledge alone.

Part of designing the game would be in understanding how the mind works and exploiting human error to the point where that fear of error would make people afraid to use the advantages that their own brain gives them in certain conditions causing the more “advanced” players to fully automate and give up value in those conditions.

Example… We know a Noob will over say a 100 or 150 pip losing trade, add to that losing position at 2, 3, or even 4 times seemingly random intervals moving their stops as they go but when he is in a winning trade he wont add to that trade or move the limits to make more money at all…… doesn’t that give the house an edge worth millions alone? There are a long list of such instances.

At this point in the game I think the solution is to find a hole or weakness in the games design (nothing illegal of course) and exploit the hell out of it for however long or short that period may be until the hole is closed up. I think you will know when you have been successful when either the brokers or the government or whoever it may be steps in and changes the rules and tells you are not welcome anymore.

“There are no model T fords parked on the driveways of the homes on the street that I live on” ( where did I hear that?). That’s how I feel about the longevity of a winning system right now. Tech guys make an amazing app or website which fulfills a need and when it starts getting hot they sell it to Google for billions and get the hell out of there in case it tanks…also known as robbing the bank. Once you have robbed the bank who cares? It’s all myths and legends by then.

To summarise…when you have found the design flaw in the game that works for whatever reason at whatever particular time however short it may be….EXPLOIT, EXPLOIT, EXPLOIT…hit it quick, hit it hard and get out… I think if you stay in for an extended period you will eventually give it all back. I suppose I have become a contrarian.

[B]What do you see as your strengths?[/B]

Apart from even more c.v “filler”

-Logical thinker…. If there is a hole in the logic behind your system there wont be a place for it to hide
-Attention to detail… as above
-If you are in real trouble, although there are 500 numbers in your phone mine is realistically 1 of only 2 numbers you will think of calling (or so I’ve been told)
-Good organisational skills
-Workaholic tendencies lol don’t flame me for it.

Very nice post win! Great read by the way and I couldn’t agree more with you about how to design a game “forex” to get a to separate with their money only to profit b. I think we need to create a team of individuals that is willing to work on a new or existing concept so that we can build a successful system we can all profit from. I love the hit it quick and gtfo out mentality.

Glad my rant didnt scare you of off :18:

You have just hit the nail on the head!!! I’m going to start calling you “That Guy”!

So far here is what i’m thinking and it is in no way set in stone it’s all up for discussion and just a way of kicking things off.

We have Tyrone a mechanical systems guy whose interest and experience lies in backtesting
We have BlueHenry who is interested in the organisational/ project management side of things for now
We have “That Guy” aka Mr systems who has a unique approach to forex
We have MoneyNVRsleeps, the level headed, wont give up, team building exercise perfectionist
Last and maybe least we have myself whose word count in the above post means i probably shouldn’t say anything more about myself for at least 6 months.

Without going into masses of detail before hearing what you guys have to say…
I’m thinking that if we take the kind of system that Tyrone has suggested as a base and test, money manage etc etc in the standard way while …at the same time modifying that system, to exploit a specific situation…the type that “That Guy” is probably thinking about as he reads this, the one we find by reverse engineering the “forex game” and finding that tiny flaw.

We can run it side by side the standard system and see exactly the increase in profitability it brings.

The “standard” system is a standalone one which will satisfy Tyrone requirements so if he doesn’t feel he wants to get involved with the modified system there is no conflict at all.

Remember… these are just my immediate thoughts.
If it’s acceptable to you all we can start by throwing around some ideas on the lines of… should the standard system be a new or existing system? What sort of system do you have in mind? etc, the basics

When we know what we are going to do, we can decide how we are going to do it and who should do what.

Maybe BlueHenry could put down his thoughts on organisation in these early stages, conflict resolution etc.

Remember guys, 1)Research 2) Design 3)Testing 4) Implementation

Now is a good time to post those ideas you have been saving up for such an occasion. Get this team into shape MoneyNVR!

Well done Winpsych.

You’ve got the ball rolling. I too like the idea of get in get out quick. Exploit the moment then wait patiently for the next opportunity.

This means we need volatility or a chart pattern that produces volatility. News could be part of this but difficult to back test. Over extension in price is good for a contrarian approach. Divergence could be used as a filter. Just a couple of ideas to keep the ball rolling.

Well in my opinion you can’t really have a successful… anything without the “that guy” guy. So I’m glad you guys found him early!.. Having a guy who knows his statistics ain’t bad either (:

Lol I’m confused.

lol, me too…

Winpsych, impressive breakdown…

For a moment I thought WinPsych is my manager. The same electronic background, works in software development, is project manager … OMG! Scary! Is my manager secretly trading on Forex without anyone’s knowledge ?

Im currently testing Renko Blocks, which I love… Just have PC issues when they start building quickly… Allows like Renko, but finding the right indicator was a battle, and finally found one that works properly… It just when price moves fast, MT4 freezes… Like today at 2pm, est, it froze for 8 minutes… If i leave it alone, it eventually unfreezes and continues. I tryed to clean my PC, but i have alot of pics and videos, and cant get more then 115 pics on a disk, and then only 3 videos… So, Im going to have to invest in another PC most likely…

If you dont know about renko blocks, they form blocks per pip bunch… So, if i set it to 3 pip blocks, a block wont develop till 3 pips have been accumulated. So its kinda Volume geared, and not time related… If the price moves fast, the blocks build in fashion…

Your comment has got me thinking about volatility and how to model the news to allow for simulation and thus backtesting. Will sleep on it and pick your brain tomorrow. Am hoping the other guys will also comment on your suggestion

I have joined the trinity of confused team members, unless of course you meant …without “That Guy”

See you at work in the morning…lets keep this between us :18: kidding
What type of software do you work on mihk and tell me a little about your forex journey if you care to share.

I will give take a crash course in Renko blocks. What are your criteria for entering trades etc in short how do you have to adjust when using volume over time?

Tyrone’s suggestion focuses on volatility… volatility and extreme volume, could Renko increase accuracy in either entry or exit etc…maybe something for you to discuss with Tyrone

I will take a crash course in Renko blocks. What are your criteria for entering trades etc in short how do you have to adjust when using volume instead of time?

Tyrone’s suggestion focuses on volatility… volatility and extreme volume, could Renko increase accuracy in either entry or exit etc…maybe something for you to discuss with Tyrone

Oh. That would certainly explain why everyone is confused.

Consistency Confirms Authenticity

CCA Inc…

Going to read back and try and catch up. It’s amazing how much you miss when you take a break from the conversation due to other things going on.

Okay that’s a lot to take in. Before we discuss possible entry rules and what to look for to place the trades like volume or volatility ( great ideas by the way ) I think we should focus first on what kinda if system we desire. So far it sounds technical (me likes). I’m under the impression we are working on a new concept? Back to my point… Are we going to be making a scalping like system? Or is anyone interested in entering a trade based off a time interval kinda like I already do just hopefully much shorter. For example… We enter at open on a 15m or 30m candle and get out at the close of the candle (or sooner if we are up hella pips). Or is it a more traditional 2:1 or 3:1 set our stop x pips down with a set tp kinda system so our trade length could indefinitely vary?

Well if we stay with the principle get in quick, ride fast, get out, I would of thought momentum style movement is what we are looking for. So I would have thought trailing the low/high of every new candle letting the movement/strength of price dictate profit margin until target hit or stopped out. Again patience waiting for next setup. Here’s a video to explain what I was thinking about. It’s unlisted on youtube so it can only be viewed by this link - WinPsych Experiment - YouTube