The WinPsych Experiment

Yeah, I’m 56-years old and so far, I’d say nurture what nature gave seems to be the winning recipe. If you need proof, spend 20 minutes on a golf course with me. :56:

Haven’t read the turtle book but I’m familiar with the project. I believe each started with somewhere around 100K and never risked more than 2% on any trade. Adequate capital and smart risk management, nice! :wink:

When I changed my goals it ended up being an extreme financial lifestyle change, so over-the-top, not something a sane person would normally do. LOL!

In a nutshell, I stopped believing the crazy hype that if I was good at trading FX I could double my account every two or three months. At the same time, I realized an average of 3% to 7% per month was a reasonable and achievable goal.

All I needed to do was add a few 00s to my trading capital. It took just shy of two years but I was able to scrape up the capital I needed, none of it through trading.

:slight_smile: Regarding beliefs and trading, let’s see if I can say this politely and not ruffle any feathers. There is a simple common sense scoreboard in trading, the account balance is increasing, decreasing or holding flat, period. Might be valuable to base our beliefs, expectations, potential and goals on how many points we’ve scored, not how many we think, hope or dream about.

PS Also might not want to over think it!

Couldn’t agree with you more MoneyNVR!

Lets use your sport analagy here. A guy wants to join a team and play a certain position. This guy may have very strong views on where and how he wants to play. He might have grown up supporting a particular team and his dream is to play for that team or perhaps there is a particular style or coach that he wants to play for…bear with me.

Now, a new team comes to the league, no track record, unknown coach etc etc What are people going to feel. 1) scepticism and 2) Hope that this might be the real deal and that it might be their shot right…but predominantly scepticism.

Now, as you may remember in a previous post i suggested that “we”, the “we” being those interested undertake a mini project. This mini project could be seen as a trial and/or a team building exercise.

Up to this point, Tyrone, BlueHenry and yourself have posted a response to the collaboration idea. This could or could not mean that on some level be it level 1 or level 100 there i some type of interest.

Continuing with the sports thing…some guys turn up at the trials or try-outs as you guys call it and the coach says “Ok, lets see what we are working with here!”

If we have established interest lets take the next step. Perhaps those that are interested in the prospect of building a team could answer the following questions

What has been your path in forex so far?
What qualities or skills outside of forex do you think you would bring to a team?
What is your current philosophy regarding forex?
What do you see as your strengths? (we can leave the weaknesses until later hahaha)

Thanks for the 2cents moneyNVR but i want that other 98cents so i have a dollar! :slight_smile: Lets see what we are working with here.

I am actually live testing the Turtle strategy here on baby pips. 301 Moved Permanently. It’s the only long term profitable strategy that works consistently that I know of. I have back tested many trend strategies & they have all got one thing in common. Eventually you will give back more than you make. I didn’t make this up. I found this out through my own hard work back testing. Not saying there is only the one (turtle strategy) that can make consistent profits over many years, but I have yet to come up with a strategy that equals or betters the Turtle’s.

What I would like to work on is finding an edge that is consistent over many years that repeats it’s self & can be implemented mechanically like the turtle rules. There would be no subjectivity. We don’t have to build a trading team. We don’t have to build a trading team…Just bash heads together to find a consistent Edge in the markets we can exploit. We can however build a strategy which we could all monitor individually. Imagine we found a strategy together. We could each open up an individual journal and trade monitoring our results. I for one am a long term trader so would be using minimum daily charts. One of you may try scalping (time permitting), another intraday time frames etc.

So lets not get to serious & bash around a few ideas & maybe we could combine something together. I will back test it if it has mechanical rules. Hopefully a friend of mine would help with the back testing if I ask nicely.

Lets keep this idea simple stupid (KISS) & also this thread.

I will start with - I am good at supply & demand but still looking for the mechanical (100%) rule based way to achieve consistency. I have not yet found it. I am a member of Online Trading Academy XLT since 2011. I make slow money each year but again I am not happy with discretional subjective trading. Especially risking my savings. I want to diversify so a mechanical supply & demand would be beneficial. Sticking to rules is also my strong point.

What else can anyone else contribute?

d-pip,
The turtle book was an example that traders can be made and are not born and nothing else. They were given capital to trade with and were taught by a very successful trader. Luxuries which not all of us have :slight_smile:

I would like to know more about your extreme lifestyle change, the driving factors and what the journey has been like if you care to share. Valuable insight and knowledge in my opinion.

I am glad you took my questions as they were intended and responded as such.

Thanks for your response Tyrone i am definitely going to look at your Testing of the Turtle Strategy thread. You have painted a good picture of where you are at, where you would like to go and what you can contribute.
Lets see where the other guys are at in terms of ideas, direction etc and take it from there.

:wink: Odd that you dubbed their capital as a luxury.

Wonder what Richard Dennis could’ve been thinking when he gave them that much cash! :confused:

The capital ins’t a luxury, the fact that it was given to them…well that’s another story :wink:

It’s all in the detail!

[B]What has been your path in forex so far? [/B] My path has been simply, “Nose to the grindstone” Ups and downs, Stressful, great days, smothered by 1 bad trade, time after time…

[B]What qualities or skills outside of forex do you think you would bring to a team?[/B] Persistance, perfectionist? Could be a bad thing.

[B]What is your current philosophy regarding forex?[/B] Its a game amoungst big Banks, and Banks are shady. With all the uproar in the entire banking system itself, it leaves a gray area of absolute collusion. I firmly believe retail trading will be eliminated, Via Dodd-Frank in the future. Might be another 5-6 years, maybe soon… Its for the consumer protection. When you throw out numbers like 95% loss, then, well, some people need protected from themselves… Most see FOrex as gambling, and it is… But once you gain a skill, and utilize it over a time frame favorable to prove you have an edge, and its no longer gambling, but a investment, with almost 100% curtency you will profit… Also, MOST of Forex is electronicly automated, and I see the traders that manually trade, are basicly just filling their life with activity to consume Time. You can get burned out. If you have a robot, that can take every single trade in your strat, you could succeed stressfree if it proves itself.

[B]What do you see as your strengths? [/B](we can leave the weaknesses until later hahaha) Im not really sure, to be honest… Im not rich yet, so to truthfully say, I have not one given strength that I could exploit… Oooooh, weakness, now, Thats definitely News, and how it effect each pair across the board… Getting better tho… And, I can be almost sure, that each potencial team memeber will have that " One Enormouse Fault" that might hold each from success./
As long as your on the right side of the tracks, it makes all the difference…

Great profits to You Winpsych

Thanks for stepping up MoneyNVR. There is alot that sounds familiar in your answers hahaha.
Still in the game and getting better cant be a bad thing!

I will of course answer the same questions i asked you, but just because i started the thread i don’t want this to become the WinPsych show. I want to give BlueHenry the chance to respond first and am also hoping that a certain Mr “d-pip” and even Mr systems himself “Leg0nd” might decide to leave those comfy seats for a minute or 2 having seen a spark of passion and step up just as you and Tyrone have.

I hope you got a piece of that nice eur/usd move today too.

[B][I]What has been your path in Forex so far?[/I][/B]

I’ve been trading FX Live for about 3 years now. My goals since the beginning have changed some over time, but one universal goal remains the same: Develop a perfect system. As you can imagine I have gotten hella fire for this since I started. You can bet I have heard it all, “It’s impossible,” “It can not be done,” “You will lose trades period.” I naturally go against the flow and am a nonconformist by nature. My mother told me a story about when I was a kid. At 18 months old, they had to hold me back and put a life vest on me when they took me to the beach. My parents where afraid I would drown because I had no fear! I would run straight into the ocean, waves taller than me… knocking me down only to get right back up and do it again and just keep going! I treat the Foreign exchange the same way and I’m 23 now. I don’t care how many times I get knocked down, I still get up and always get right back at it. I will always pursue perfection regardless of if I achieve it or not. Remember the wright brothers? Everyone told them they couldn’t fly, guess what they did? built a plane and took to the skies. I’m a firm believer that anything is possible if you set your mind to it.

All that being said, I moved away from charts and indicators a year ago to the date. I graduated from charts and indicators to the wonderful program, Microsoft Excel! As most of you know, I use the data given to me from my broker (for free of course) Oanda. At first I traded patterns in movement, and time in simple sheets I made using Microsoft excel. Over time I started trading simple patterns I found in Volume. Over time I kept asking, what drives the market, what actually moves the market etc. This led me straight to Volume. After heavy heavy individual research, thousands of trials and error, I am where I am today. After a lot of studying, and testing, one day It hit me leading me to believe I figured out how to mathematically calculate the real volume (net amount) using my 1/P*M equations (read more in my journal about this). Since Then I have calculated all kinds of fine details about the market that I have yet to find or hear about elsewhere (also in my journal). As time has progressed, I started getting a lot smarter about the concepts I create to trade the market, which leaves me to where I am today and the most powerful real world concept I have developed and trade today. What has me the most excited about the current concept is unlike all the previous simple patterns I used to trade, the pattern I now trade is very distinct and has several characteristics I have had to learn how to identify to trade it successful. Also, I am still learning how to trade it which makes this system quite unique. All that being said, the answer to the question is: My path is solely a mathematical systematic approach to high probability trading without any indicators, other technicals or fundamental analysis.

[B][I]What qualities or skills outside of Forex do you think you would bring to a team?
[/I][/B]

I’m going to keep some of these remaining questions short. Creativity, originality, persistence, perfectionism, discipline, a unique perspective on how the market actually works and what drives it.

[B][I]What is your current philosophy regarding Forex? [/I][/B]

There is so much I could write here. I am going to put down something I have come to realize over the past several days I think could be very very disturbingly true. I believe 98% of traders fail because they all trade Forex the same way regardless of system. 98% of traders use "technical analysis (I’m referring to premade indicators), fundamental analysis, and price action to trade the markets. In my epiphany, I have come to realize all platforms are the same (not exactly but pretty damn close), all indicators are made to entice traders and are not necessarily going to produce worthy results. Sure it may be possible to mix and match these indicators a certain way like a combination to achieve some success, but I believe they have a shelf life and the market adapts over time only to destroy the actual validity and use of these indicators. It’s like these indicators have a half life or something, may work well for a year, then accuracy drops 10-20% the next year, and so on and so forth. I believe fundamental analysis is a bunch of bullship. I don’t want to go into any details on why I am completely against fundamentals, I have already written a lot so far… I’m sure I will get hella fire for all this but I could care less, I am very biased as you can tell… “Married to my system” as some would say. But even taking all the reasons I think 98% fail, think about it this way… how many solely statistical traders like myself are out there? I would be not be surprised If it where the 2%, possibly even less! Sounds remarkably scary I imagine, but It is the truth I believe. [B][I]If conventional wisdom and knowledge was all you needed to succeed in Forex, why are there hardly any successful traders on this forum?[/I][/B] That previous statement was just some food for thought. I have yet to meet another trader on this forum that uses only the data to make trading decisions. If there are any, please show some face, I would love to meet you and hear about your idea’s :slight_smile:
[B][I]
What do you see as your strengths?[/I][/B]

I will list just a few:

  1. Complete and utter relentlessness
  2. Complete dedication to succeed no matter the time it takes. I will literally die trying If I do not succeed.
  3. Fine attention to detail
  4. Patience
  5. Leader, not a follower

Well that was fun, I think I learned a lot about myself just typing this. Thanks for the opportunity WinPsych! Hope it was an entertaining read for ya.

[B][I]What has been your path in Forex so far?[/I][/B]

I’ve been trading FX Live for about 3 years now. My goals since the beginning have changed some over time, but one universal goal remains the same: Develop a perfect system. As you can imagine I have gotten hella fire for this since I started. You can bet I have heard it all, “It’s impossible,” “It can not be done,” “You will lose trades period.” I naturally go against the flow and am a nonconformist by nature. My mother told me a story about when I was a kid. At 18 months old, they had to hold me back and put a life vest on me when they took me to the beach. My parents where afraid I would drown because I had no fear! I would run straight into the ocean, waves taller than me… knocking me down only to get right back up and do it again and just keep going! I treat the Foreign exchange the same way and I’m 23 now. I don’t care how many times I get knocked down, I still get up and always get right back at it. I will always pursue perfection regardless of if I achieve it or not. Remember the wright brothers? Everyone told them they couldn’t fly, guess what they did? built a plane and took to the skies. I’m a firm believer that anything is possible if you set your mind to it.

All that being said, I moved away from charts and indicators a year ago to the date. I graduated from charts and indicators to the wonderful program, Microsoft Excel! As most of you know, I use the data given to me from my broker (for free of course) Oanda. At first I traded patterns in movement, and time in simple sheets I made using Microsoft excel. Over time I started trading simple patterns I found in Volume. Over time I kept asking, what drives the market, what actually moves the market etc. This led me straight to Volume. After heavy heavy individual research, thousands of trials and error, I am where I am today. After a lot of studying, and testing, one day It hit me leading me to believe I figured out how to mathematically calculate the real volume (net amount) using my 1/P*M equations (read more in my journal about this). Since Then I have calculated all kinds of fine details about the market that I have yet to find or hear about elsewhere (also in my journal). As time has progressed, I started getting a lot smarter about the concepts I create to trade the market, which leaves me to where I am today and the most powerful real world concept I have developed and trade today. What has me the most excited about the current concept is unlike all the previous simple patterns I used to trade, the pattern I now trade is very distinct and has several characteristics I have had to learn how to identify to trade it successful. Also, I am still learning how to trade it which makes this system quite unique. All that being said, the answer to the question is: My path is solely a mathematical systematic approach to high probability trading without any indicators, other technicals or fundamental analysis.

[B][I]What qualities or skills outside of Forex do you think you would bring to a team?
[/I][/B]

I’m going to keep some of these remaining questions short. Creativity, originality, persistence, perfectionism, discipline, a unique perspective on how the market actually works and what drives it. Might I add my skill at identifying repeating patterns. I also play piano and keyboard by ear… The keys make chords and scales… All patterns. I love music as well because of the infinite patterns one can use to make a song.

[B][I]What is your current philosophy regarding Forex? [/I][/B]

There is so much I could write here. I am going to put down something I have come to realize over the past several days I think could be very very disturbingly true. I believe 98% of traders fail because they all trade Forex the same way regardless of system. 98% of traders use "technical analysis (I’m referring to premade indicators), fundamental analysis, and price action to trade the markets. In my epiphany, I have come to realize all platforms are the same (not exactly but pretty damn close), all indicators are made to entice traders and are not necessarily going to produce worthy results. Sure it may be possible to mix and match these indicators a certain way like a combination to achieve some success, but I believe they have a shelf life and the market adapts over time only to destroy the actual validity and use of these indicators. It’s like these indicators have a half life or something, may work well for a year, then accuracy drops 10-20% the next year, and so on and so forth. I believe fundamental analysis is a bunch of bullship. I don’t want to go into any details on why I am completely against fundamentals, I have already written a lot so far… I’m sure I will get hella fire for all this but I could care less, I am very biased as you can tell… “Married to my system” as some would say. But even taking all the reasons I think 98% fail, think about it this way… how many solely statistical traders like myself are out there? I would be not be surprised If it where the 2%, possibly even less! Sounds remarkably scary I imagine, but It is the truth I believe. [B][I]If conventional wisdom and knowledge was all you needed to succeed in Forex, why are there hardly any successful traders on this forum?[/I][/B] That previous statement was just some food for thought. I have yet to meet another trader on this forum that uses only the data to make trading decisions. If there are any, please show some face, I would love to meet you and hear about your idea’s :slight_smile:
[B][I]
What do you see as your strengths?[/I][/B]

I will list just a few:

  1. Complete and utter relentlessness
  2. Complete dedication to succeed no matter the time it takes. I will literally die trying If I do not succeed.
  3. Fine attention to detail
  4. Patience
  5. Leader, not a follower

Well that was fun, I think I learned a lot about myself just typing this. Thanks for the opportunity WinPsych! Hope it was an entertaining read for ya.

Actually I feel I’ve already thrown my best and most valuable pitches. Anything more would be just tips on how to keep the trains running on time. :wink:

Thanks leg0nd, i really enjoyed reading that. You are that guy that some shrewd gazillionare investor, against the advice of his closest advisors, says “Give him a desk in the corner over there and let him get on with it. If this guy actually cracks it…you’ll find out what rich really is!” lol

Some of your ideas like the time exit thing have already got me thinking.

Lets see if BlueHenry responds tomorrow and then i’ll focus the interrogation on myself.

Nice 130 pipper by the way.

Eloquently put d-pip :wink: I understand your decision. Wont stop me calling on you for your opinions once in a while though lol

[QUOTE=“WinPsych;619330”] Thanks leg0nd, i really enjoyed reading that. You are that guy that some shrewd gazillionare investor, against the advice of his closest advisors, says “Give him a desk in the corner over there and let him get on with it. If this guy actually cracks it…you’ll find out what rich really is!” lol Some of your ideas like the time exit thing have already got me thinking. Lets see if BlueHenry responds tomorrow and then i’ll focus the interrogation on myself. Nice 130 pipper by the way.[/QUOTE]

XD. Great motivation my dude. I understand I have a my way or the highway strong headed mentality. I am working on being more open minded. I have just dug myself so deep in research over the past year it’s hard to go back to “conventionalism.” Despite my high risk and pay no attention to low risk anthems… I still think I am doing incredibly well since implementation of my new (still infant) concept. I have never been profitable for this long, over a month now.

Today was smooth, I knew I was gambling on an unfamiliar pattern in EU. It kinda worked like a hedge trade though. Won’t happen again :slight_smile:

That EJ pattern I traded today? I will post it in my journal later if you are curious what a beautiful pattern looks like. Work for a gazillionaire investor? Hahaha not a chance unless for a very very hefty sign up fee. I would rather be self made, but I might go corporate/private for the right price xD.

Hi - firstly, sorry I am not spending as much time reading comments on trade journals as Id like. Still have to spend 8 hours a day at a boring job.
secondly - with only about 8 months experience I am still very much a beginner. I have made my mistakes. It wouldn’t in my mind be reasonable for me to be part of any collective project in a trading sense, but may like to be part of it from a organisational point of view, if that were even relevant. Until I have proven my trading to myself, I will keep any opinion and comment to myself in that regard. By the end of the year if I have been consistently successful and turned my balance into as much as it can become, then I may comment on trading. In the meantime its the psychology of it which is relevant to everyone, and I enjoy investigating all avenues, inclucing a joint venture.

Do you plan on trialling the cooperative trading in a demo account first - to get used to how it may work.
Do you have any rules or plans on how it may work at all,
As I write this - I think the following. To start with - how about a demo account with 3 subaccounts (or however many people are chosen to participate)
Lets say you start with a total of $300, $100 each in 3 accounts. Each trader will start off trading ONLY in their subaccount. The proof of their worth will be in what they can do with that subaccount in 2 or 3 or 4 months.
Risk means different things to different people, acceptable risk to 1 trader is not acceptable to another. If you end up blowing your subaccount - clearly Risk management was not part of your plan. This affects other traders in the joint venture.
But actually knowing what risk was involved I suppose could be witnessed on a daily basis by the other traders seeing what trades exist in each others subaccounts and what the level of risk was.
If many months had passed I guess you trust each other enough to go live, or if you chose not to wait that long, and just dive in and go live with whatever amount was agreed upon, then so be it, but trust will still need to be developed.

How will you handle one trader consistently doing very well on their subaccount and another doing a mild return. Will everyone have equal claim to an exact equal share of the profits.
Do you set aside a 4th account to actually grow the nestegg, and may not be touched by anyone?
and if subaccounts is not what you had in mind, then if trading occurs in a single account, how would you reach agreement on trade entry. may be difficult to co-ordinate mutual meetings for discussion.
Subaccounts may be more practical, because ecah trader does whatever they do best, and dont need agreement from others.

How do you control the withdrawal of funds. Lets say at some stage one trader has run into personal problems and needs to extract their share. can they? when is that an option?

If for argument you settle with 8 traders to do this with, after 6 months 2 have lost interest, 1 wants their share, 2 are doing mildly, 3 are doing well. Does this at this point represent the best that could be done with the multi trader strategy?

or more optimistically, 4 traders all doing acceptably well, after 6 months still doing well,a few hiccups, the account is growing nicely, some traders more active than others, but it doesnt matter. after 1 year, account balance quite healthy. what now, everyone happy to continue as such? for how long? when do withdrawals get done, or put more simply, when can traders start drawing a "salary"
how do you treat applications from other traders? can people join in after a year? I would guess not, unless they can buy in at the current value of 1 share. So lets say after 1 year the account is $40000 and has 4 traders. Each is entitled to $10000, so a fifth trader would need to buy in at $10000, but is the level of trust there?

The security of the venture will also need to be controlled, as you now have multiple people with access to ALL your equity. Imagine the catastophe if one person goes rogue?

Should there be an overseer? or are 4 traders able to do their duty without an overseer?

Well thats a lot to chew on. I like the idea. Its exciting and has great potential!! Lets see!

and if a trader ruins their subaccount - are they out? or can they buy their place back into the team?
Is there a penalty for not managing risk and blowing your subaccount? because really you are affecting the nest egg of everyone involved. I use the term nest-egg loosely, but you understand my meaning.

Will be following this discussion for a good while. Very intriguing and the concept sounds solid! Hella safety precautions would be necessary for the traders sake and for the sake of the firms capital. You do understand this is a firm that would be being created.

Interesting and entertaining reads. Although as a small note on the turtle traders I do believe Dennis ultimately crashed and shut down shop when the markets stopped trending so nicely in the late 80s. I suppose as the market grows and general knowledge grows, information required to stay ahead of the game does too eh?

[QUOTE=“LiquidGenius;619408”]Interesting and entertaining reads. Although as a small note on the turtle traders I do believe Dennis ultimately crashed and shut down shop when the markets stopped trending so nicely in the late 80s. I suppose as the market grows and general knowledge grows, information required to stay ahead of the game does too eh?[/QUOTE]

I think the information has always been there. Silently waiting for the right person to find it.

I believe he didn’t stick to his rules. There were reports he tried different approaches. We all know where that leads…Dooooom.

Some Turtles went on to become very successful, others failed because again they altered the strategy.

I’ve said it before on babypips but I’ll say it again. We could all follow a proven set of rules but if we trade different instruments, percentage’s & time frames then we would all have different results. Period.