The WinPsych Experiment

[Tyrone_Archer]

Hmm I’m not 100% sure I know how to answer. Brief overview of why I trade dailies and use time instead of price as an exit.

I treat Forex like a test. I can decided to “test” myself as often as possible, so can anyone lol. In order to increase my chances of passing these so called tests, I have to pick which level student I am if that makes sense. The more tests I take, the more often I have a chance at failing (risk). I decided I am a mid, lets just say middle school level student when it comes to the market. With that being said I have 5 tests a week, well 6 if I trade Sundays. I split this up over 1 test per day, so I have one chance to pass or fail per day. Since I want my results to really count, I want my 1 test per day to be worth as much as possible so that my time spent enduring the test itself is worth the most amount via return. That being said, If you look at the chart for any pair, the most amount of money one can make in a single candle is typically the day candle (month and year candles are taken out because they do not meet the requirements for a 1 test per day). My goal is to get in at open, that guarantees me a chance to pass or fail the test, any price above or below open voids my result unless I get in below open going long, or above open going short. Reason for this is because a day can close anywhere from .1 pips to hundreds of pips up from open, down from open, or completely flat in which I wouldn’t win or lose. What makes this approach to Forex as fun as it is, Is because I can choose whatever test I want to take per day (any pair I choose). After a lot of research, I narrowed it down to a handful, roughly 10 or so.

I wanted days that typically had the least statistical draw down from open as possible on the day chart, but had the highest amount of linear movement from open (the hundreds of pips right?). Originally I created a risk reward model of 40 pips loss worst case, and a 100 pip tp. The problem with this approach I realized was I was still getting stopped out at times, and most times I wasn’t achieving my 100 pip goal, PLUS several days I noticed the market went beyond my 40 pips stop only to completely reverse and go in my direction above or below open and close for the day. So I scrapped the idea all together. Which as you can see is why I use time as an exit rather than some predetermined price.

Several pairs like EN I have seen drop over 100 pips, completely reverse and close above or below open by an additional 100 or 200 pips. These trades are not desirable to me unless I can some how spot the high draw down before It happens, then get in way after open to take advantage of such big moves. Which is why my system now is a continues work in progress at the moment. I have been getting much much better at picking good trades via low draw down and high return as you can see in my trade journal. Yesterday was a prime example of a trade that went 60-70 pips against me to close 10 or 20 pips profitable at the end of the day. That trade was not desirable, but I didn’t realize it until after I was able to fix a major flaw in my spreadsheet.

Time is critical for my exit because I give the market a set time interval that is identical for every single trade for me to “Pass” or “Fail.” Anything can happen in a day and that’s what makes trading so much fun to me… I can be hella wrong (not desirable of course) and then instantly the market goes in my favor and I pass for the day… Sometimes it can happen in the last 5 mins, you won’t believe how many times I have seen this. If I give the market some sort of distance as an exit instead, my accuracy would be sh** because distance is not predictable (at least not yet, I have several models I worked on in the past that gave me insanely close predictions on movement, will be getting back into that in some time). But what is predictable? Direction! Direction is predictable as long as you eliminate the variable that is not constant… movement. Like I said I wanted to take tests and be rewarded for passing or failing. If I pass I am guaranteed a reward that can vary from .1 pips to 100’s (which is why I do not set tp’s… I want my test to be worth as much as the market makes them worth, not set some predetermined value via TP). So there must be a lot of time invested in figuring out which tests are likely to pay out the most, and which tests are least likely so I know what test is “hot” for the day so to speak. That’s where my statistics come in :). Fortunately excel does all the work for me, I just paste the data I require into my premade excel sheet, scroll down and read the results, then decide which test I would like to take… Take it and be rewarded or scolded hehe. The time doesn’t go into making the trading decision and analysis, that literally takes me at most 10 mins a night. The time goes into finding the high probability patterns in the spreadsheet I use as my guide, and determining which of those patterns constantly repeat themselves over time. As you can imagine I have spent over a year testing and trading 1000’s of patterns, at some point I was bound to have some sort of breakthrough you would imagine. I didn’t just trade bogus patterns either, I determined what I thought had value in the present to trade the future. It just took a long time to figure out what the “market” values, not necessarily what I thought. And to me the answer is as clear as day. The market values Money. Money drives price, people drive money, thoughts and emotions drive people, news drives thoughts etc. It’s a chain reaction… My focus is on the money, I could care less about the sh** that that influences it, hint the other chain links above. Most traders focus on the those things other than the money, and do not succeed… so why should I do what they do?

We’ve spoke about this before. I trade the Slingshot strategy which is also a timed based strategy like yours. The difference is you use an equation while the slingshot uses price action. It would be great to see if there is a winning pattern if both were combined, however it would be impossible to back test but forward testing could be an option. If say I knew your bias for a particular pair for the day, I could cross check the slingshot to see if there is a pattern emerging. Kind of looking for filters to reduce losses. We can talk about this in detail some other time.

[WinPsych]

WinPsych, yes - I have some ideas on co-operation, conflict res and agreement and so on, but it depends a lot on the nature of this experiment.

Question
assuming the experiment is set up and underway , now ask about motive.
Are you(the team) co-operating because you now have a fund building up in an account (joint money)
or do you have money in an account BECAUSE you are co operating.

Think about that again

1. Are you making money because you are co-operating
2. or are you co-operating because the account has money.

The motive in (1.) is that traders like co-operating on strategy and refining the strategy
The motive in (2.) is almost a captive one. you have money invested, or the account has grown to some point where you feel you MUST co-operate.

WinPsych I am sure you are totally set on motive 1, and no-one wants to find themself part of something where they dont have the same motive as other members. (One would assume you wouldnt take part if there was any suggestion of motive 2 but its is still a real consideration)

Member number 3 now feels he would like his money out, but agreement was reached that the team would go for 2 years. Member 3 is trapped, Members 1 and 2 not happy

Its just an example but it leads to my suggestions on setup/
Considering the legal, tax and account setup implications of a joint account I will then strongly suggest that the experiment is joint in communication only, but not in any other way.
Let each person use their own account, own starting capital, no money transfers, no payouts between members, no sharing of funds,
No unhappy members, no conflict to resolve except possibly during the strategy discussions.
The phrase “Keep it Simple” was used early on, and I guess this is therefore the simplest.

This certainly avoids any unhappiness, and no disputes on who is entitled to what.
It simplifies anyone joining or leaving at any time.
start with any money you want.
Opinions?

I will try and give you a holistic answer to your questions BlueHenry.

The reason that some people spend 8 hours per day in jobs they hate or 8 hours per day in jobs they love is the same reason that they start companies, take 2 year round the world trips, or just stay home… on some level they feel it is in their best interest to do it right now.

When a need arises a solution is born to fulfill that need. I’m sure you have heard the story about the lady that starts off baking cakes in her kitchen just because she loves baking who gives the cake away because she couldnt reasonably eat that many cakes. The friends love the cakes and start wanting to buy cake from her, she has too many orders to make them all in her own kitchen so she uses a friends kitchen too. At some point she’s outgrown the home kitchen set up and needs to rent a commercial kitchen to supply the demand…to cut a long story short by the time her cakes are sold in every supermarket in the country her cakes are made in factories. Alot is going to change on that journey from baking cakes at home for a few friends to fulfilling supermarket orders and her organisation will change with that journey.

Tech start-ups have no money. The people involved offer their services in return for shares in a company that is currently worth nothing. They get funding and the company is still worth nothing. If the company goes all the way and is floated on the stock exchange they all become millionaires, if it doesn’t work out they have gained alot of real world experience and a network of people who know their value. when the next opportunity arises they will get a call asking them to get onboard.

People are drawn to forex in part because they want to be the captain of their own ship. Why would a captain of their own ship sign up to anything they didn’t want to do? They wouldn’t. They would only do things that they felt on some level or other was in their interest to do.

If i ask a question in this thread why do i get an answer?
If i read a question why do i answer it?

As you will have seen in this and all the other threads… these guys and you yourself put in a hell of a lot of work into this forex thing. When you wake up at 3am in the morning to use the bathroom don’t you check your phone first to see what the eur/usd price is?

We realise the value of co-operation. Exchanging ideas, concepts, equations and even chit chat… all these things shorten that learning curve and drive you forward. If there was/is no value, how long would it/will it last?

Regarding visitors to the thread i encourage them to say something, it may have value, its a win win. If you just want to read thats fine too.

It’s not that old world anymore where you have to hide stuff and force people into things they don’t want to do and talk nonsense about people or generally be a pain in the you know what etc

[WinPsych]

Going to be hard to back test. It’s going to take some time to determine the logic behind the entry eq. For example, do we want price to have consolidated for 1 hr before entry? 2 hours? 20 mins? How big of a move are we looking for? what is the acceptable range from high to low for the consolidation period? Without these answers. I can’t really progress forward.

Just a thought but why not reverse engineer it? Find a movement that satisfies the criteria and then analyse its trigger. We want the shortest time between distance A and B with an acceptable level of stability. The distance, or number of pips, is governed by the force of the trigger. This means you can play around with it and see which time frames suggest which distance and what is the correct velocity that confirms your theory… any help?

[Tyrone_Archer]

Just a thought but why not reverse engineer it? Find a movement that satisfies the criteria and then analyse its trigger. We want the shortest time between distance A and B with an acceptable level of stability. The distance, or number of pips, is governed by the force of the trigger. This means you can play around with it and see which time frames suggest which distance and what is the correct velocity that confirms your theory… any help?

Sounds like a breakout strategy. Now the conventional wisdom is the longer the consolidation the bigger the move. If we want to think outside the box then we should do the opposite.

This is what im thinking. When price starts its strong momentum move with conviction, you don’t normally get the retracement. What you get is a rally base rally which equals or greater than the initial move. The base part may have only one candle then breaks out again. The less candles base the stronger the momentum move. So I will work on a mechanical way of finding these patterns and taking the breakout from here. If im successful, I will make a video again to explain in detail. Again im looking for KISS approach.

[WinPsych]

Sounds like a breakout strategy. Now the conventional wisdom is the longer the consolidation the bigger the move. If we want to think outside the box then we should do the opposite.

This is what im thinking. When price starts its strong momentum move with conviction, you don’t normally get the retracement. What you get is a rally base rally which equals or greater than the initial move. The base part may have only one candle then breaks out again. The less candles base the stronger the momentum move. So I will work on a mechanical way of finding these patterns and taking the breakout from here. If im successful, I will make a video again to explain in detail. Again im looking for KISS approach.

That is the type of thought process i have been waiting for. Happy hunting. Look forward to the video.

[Leg0nd]

I’m testing my current up to date spreed sheet. But in a little while I intend on doing with Tyrone is doing as well. I have a few ideas. Will be sure to post them soon.

[mihk]

Ok, here we go again. Because of the money I lost, to me Forex is like a robbery in progress. Really, it is.
Now while we wait for Tyrone’s video, I know a scene I think looks exactly like Forex these days. You know it, right?

You see, the restaurant is like a pair we trade, where there are many traders around.
Now, the fortunate ones have left, but we are still inside to take the loss.

Pumpkin and Honey Bunny are traders that do things differently. They do the hold up.
I mean, how many chances are that you would do the same thing?
Honey Bunny doesn’t know ****, but Pumpkin says to rob the place and take all the wallets (retailers positions).

And they rob. That’s easy because they know how to hit (almost) everybody’s stop loss.
Jules however is a cold bloody MF. He eats traders like the 2 in no time.

You see, WinPshy is the shepherd here (in this thread), hence Jules in the movie, that shepherds me, the weak into the valey of darkness. Right ? I mean, I like it. I’m game. Totally.

Then, when he is threatened, he opens the suit case (liquidity, 1,2,3 spikes +55 pips long, beautiful) and what does Pumpkin do ? Nothing. Doesn’t react. A second later is too late. The price has stabilized.

Now, although he is pissed off by the 2, is only asking for his wallet back. Is the one that has written on it “BMF”.
He is not giving up the liquidity and gets it back (from the market) because that’s not his money. Is Marcelus Wallace’s.

Vincent is not looking at the charts during this time.

I am probably one of those scared guys laying on the floor, and I’ve been given my wallet to Honey Bunny.
I mean, my 1200 euros I lost last month, have filled Honey Bunny positions ? I’m angry.

[WinPsych]

Ok, here we go again. Because of the money I lost, to me Forex is like a robbery in progress. Really, it is.
Now while we wait for Tyrone’s video, I know a scene I think looks exactly like Forex these days. You know it, right?

You see, the restaurant is like a pair we trade, where there are many traders around.
Now, the fortunate ones have left, but we are still inside to take the loss.

Pumpkin and Honey Bunny are traders that do things differently. They do the hold up.
I mean, how many chances are that you would do the same thing?
Honey Bunny doesn’t know ****, but Pumpkin says to rob the place and take all the wallets (retailers positions).

And they rob. That’s easy because they know how to hit (almost) everybody’s stop loss.
Jules however is a cold bloody MF. He eats traders like the 2 in no time.

You see, WinPshy is the shepherd here (in this thread), hence Jules in the movie, that shepherds me, the weak into the valey of darkness. Right ? I mean, I like it. I’m game. Totally.

Then, when he is threatened, he opens the suit case (liquidity, 1,2,3 spikes +55 pips long, beautiful) and what does Pumpkin do ? Nothing. Doesn’t react. A second later is too late. The price has stabilized.

Now, although he is pissed off by the 2, is only asking for his wallet back. Is the one that has written on it “BMF”.
He is not giving up the liquidity and gets it back (from the market) because that’s not his money. Is Marcelus Wallace’s.

Vincent is not looking at the charts during this time.

I am probably one of those scared guys laying on the floor, and I’ve been given my wallet to Honey Bunny.
I mean, my 1200 euros I lost last month, have filled Honey Bunny positions ? I’m angry.

Mihk i dont think there is a single trader on these forums or anywhere else that hasn’t felt like you are feeling now, especially at times when we lost a little; or a lot more than we should.

I don’t know anything about you. I don’t know how long you have been trading, how much experience you have or how you trade. I don’t know if you earn 2000 euro per month in your job or if its 6000 euro per month. I don’t know if you have 1000 euro in your savings account or if you have 500 000 euro in your savings account.

Do you have a 500 euro trading account that you added to when you lost or is your trading account 5000 euro.

All i do know is that a few days ago you posted that you were having trouble sleeping and that now you are angry because of your 1200 euro loss.

I’m going to give you some advice and you are probably not going to take it but i will give it anyway.

STOP TRADING!!!

Do not trade on a real money account or on a demo account for a minimum of 2 months.
Do not read about forex online or in books or visit forex forums for a minimum of 2 months.
Tell everyone that is important to you in your life, your wife or girlfriend, your friends, your colleagues, your parents that you lost 1200 euro on forex immediately. Do not hide the the loss.

If YOU decide after 2 months to go back to forex spend 2 months finding out why you lost and educating yourself. After that spend 3 months on a demo account testing what you have learned. After those 3 months if you are winning take another month to decide if it is worth doing this and if you decide it is then open a VERY SMALL account.

Forex has no emotion it doesn’t care about you! Anything you risk it will take and not care, it doesn’t even know. It will take your house and car and leave you on the street without food if you risk it and carry on as normal.

I know it sounds mean but your 1200 euro are gone. If you don’t follow the advice i gave you above then you will probably lose another 1200 euro this month or maybe 5000 euro.

YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR MONEY. There are no shepherds or hold ups.

I hope you take the advice i have given you. Use the time instead doing things you enjoy with the people you like being around. You will feel a lot better.

Take care Mihk.

[Tyrone_Archer]

Ok, here we go again. Because of the money I lost, to me Forex is like a robbery in progress. Really, it is.
Now while we wait for Tyrone’s video, I know a scene I think looks exactly like Forex these days. You know it, right?

You see, the restaurant is like a pair we trade, where there are many traders around.
Now, the fortunate ones have left, but we are still inside to take the loss.

Pumpkin and Honey Bunny are traders that do things differently. They do the hold up.
I mean, how many chances are that you would do the same thing?
Honey Bunny doesn’t know ****, but Pumpkin says to rob the place and take all the wallets (retailers positions).

And they rob. That’s easy because they know how to hit (almost) everybody’s stop loss.
Jules however is a cold bloody MF. He eats traders like the 2 in no time.

You see, WinPshy is the shepherd here (in this thread), hence Jules in the movie, that shepherds me, the weak into the valey of darkness. Right ? I mean, I like it. I’m game. Totally.

Then, when he is threatened, he opens the suit case (liquidity, 1,2,3 spikes +55 pips long, beautiful) and what does Pumpkin do ? Nothing. Doesn’t react. A second later is too late. The price has stabilized.

Now, although he is pissed off by the 2, is only asking for his wallet back. Is the one that has written on it “BMF”.
He is not giving up the liquidity and gets it back (from the market) because that’s not his money. Is Marcelus Wallace’s.

Vincent is not looking at the charts during this time.

I am probably one of those scared guys laying on the floor, and I’ve been given my wallet to Honey Bunny.
I mean, my 1200 euros I lost last month, have filled Honey Bunny positions ? I’m angry.

Hey don’t wait for me to supply & answer to making money. I’ve been at this for nearly 6 years & am only just making money. Im still not happy. I wont be ready for another couple of years before I start pumping money into trading. You sound like your still at the very early stages of trading experience. Let me tell you something for free. If you cant take it now then get out now for good, because it will only get much harder down the road. You have to have the mental stamina to get anywhere in this business. I too have lost plenty at the start. I wish you luck but your negative attitude wont help anyone especially you.

[mihk]

I am actually back in the game. Since 26.03 I took 2 transactions, both > +100 pips.

[Leg0nd]

1200 euro in a month? I lost $550 in a day, then $300 the next day last summer before I started developing my edge. I can’t really remember how I felt to be honest, but after the money was gone, I just instinctively worked harder to “beat” the market and profit from it. I don’t think it’s a bad thing to get mad, but you should try to use it intelligently in your favor. Don’t trade if you are mad or upset, you need to be neutral. However, use the aggression as determination to develop an edge you can benefit from long term. That’s my 2 cents.

[WinPsych]

Let us be open minded in our research, accurate and efficient in our trade execution and let us continue with our dedication to learning and improvement. Hope you all have a good week in the market guys!

[Leg0nd]

I intend on doing so xD. Hope you so as well!

[WinPsych]

I intend on doing so xD. Hope you so as well!

Hella accuracy this week lol

[Leg0nd]

Hella accuracy this week lol

You wouldn’t believe it! I sent my spreadsheet to uppcomer fx (sorry if I spelled your name wrong mate), and he was asking about a particular column in spreadsheet and what it represented. So, I pulled up the spreadsheet… reviewed over it, and as I was replying to his message and explaining it to him, I had a huge breakthrough/epiphany. Like major major major! I have a new system this week I intend on trading, thats how huge the breakthrough was. I’m going to test test test this strategy for a few hours now thats how thrilled I am about it (I don’t even like testing normally). I’m going to use my previous system in alliance with this new concept and I am absolutely thrilled about it. I can not wait to see what happens. I no longer think the money invested etc matters, I mean it does, but since I can not calculate it, I will only use volume. Volume is all that is necessary!

Anyways, It’s way over my head to really even fathom how to accurately explain this huge breakthrough… But I intend on really pushing it to the limit to see what it really can do. Be back later with some incredible finds. Might even post a picture of what I really “discovered” so to speak. Can’t wait for open!

[WinPsych]

You wouldn’t believe it! I sent my spreadsheet to uppcomer fx (sorry if I spelled your name wrong mate), and he was asking about a particular column in spreadsheet and what it represented. So, I pulled up the spreadsheet… reviewed over it, and as I was replying to his message and explaining it to him, I had a huge breakthrough/epiphany. Like major major major! I have a new system this week I intend on trading, thats how huge the breakthrough was. I’m going to test test test this strategy for a few hours now thats how thrilled I am about it (I don’t even like testing normally). I’m going to use my previous system in alliance with this new concept and I am absolutely thrilled about it. I can not wait to see what happens. I no longer think the money invested etc matters, I mean it does, but since I can not calculate it, I will only use volume. Volume is all that is necessary!

[B]Anyways, It’s way over my head to really even fathom how to accurately explain this huge breakthrough[/B]… But I intend on really pushing it to the limit to see what it really can do. Be back later with some incredible finds. Might even post a picture of what I really “discovered” so to speak. Can’t wait for open!

Master those verbals dude
Always great when you find something that was sitting there all along.
yep i agree, test the hell out of it! No all ins day 1 though

[Leg0nd]

Lol. My language skills increase in sophistication when I have moments of glee due to a forex solution I believe to be revolutionary xD.

No 100% on day 1? Uh oh. I don’t think I can promise that haha.

[Leg0nd]

I need to do some more testing of course, but I’m really think I am getting the hang of this new concept. It’s phenomenal. I wouldn’t base any trades of these “predictions” any time soon, but I am posting this for my own review and to look back at in the future.

What my expectations are for the day:

Today these pair should close:
AJ Short (I’m taking this trade)
GN Short
NJ Long
EU Short
AU Buy
EN Short
GU Short
CHFJ Long (going to take this trade too)

Going to pull NU when I get home as well as GA, maybe gold, and probably GJ.

[Leg0nd]

Aww! I posted In the wrong trade journal… Oh well. Guess I gotta copy and paste

[WinPsych]

Aww! I posted In the wrong trade journal… Oh well. Guess I gotta copy and paste

That accuracy lasted 10 minutes max lol
Over excited about the new concept maybe?