Just wanted to post some thoughts on the cable and fiber last night. I missed LO opportunity to go short on fiber and cable. With Fiber I was looking for a larger Judas swing into Resistance at around 1.3300-1.3310. There was somewhat of an OTE during LO based of the AR high, but I was expecting a little more push up so never got the entry signal. The reason I was scoping out 1.33 level was because it’s the big fig leve, I have daily R2 there as well as the weekly R2 and Traders Trinity 1.62 level from this week both converging exactly at 1.3310. In addition I have a natural resistance level there as well as price entering OTE short on the daily timeframe here.
Missed the Cable for similar reasons. Was looking for an OTE on the 5min charts during LO, which never materialized. However as I look back I can see an OTE short based on Monday’s high. Reason’s for looking short here at 1.5910-1.5930 are: I have them marked as major Resistance levels on high timeframe, Weekly R1 and TT 1.27 level both converge at 1.5930 as well as the daily R2 level. We are also in the OTE short sweet spot on the daily charts, not to mention overbought with Williams %R.
Both of these would have been profitable trades, but I missed them based on not finding an exact entry. Fiber I feel I was being too specific and Cable I just missed the OTE from Monday’s high that would have got me in. It’s good to know when your analysis would have turned a profitable trade though. Now just gotta wait for te next bus to come along… could be tonight…
also - This daylight savings time is really messing me up. I was in a good routine getting up checking LO between 2-4AM, but with LO shifted an hour these past two weeks have really thrown me off. I believe everything gets back to normal next week though
Just thought I’d share some interesting psychological issues I’m facing since I started my live account last week.
It was a pretty bad start as my first two trades hit SL and I was down 4%. I got kind of scared and next time I found a setup, I just nervously reduced my lots drastically (like from 5000 units to 100). Both these trades panned out just as I’d hoped, so that felt good. But now I keep thinking “why did I reduce the lots so much, even though I made more pips in total, my balance is down”. I know I shouldn’t be focusing on that, but the thought lingers. I’m working on getting over it.
Also, I thought I’d put my trade today up here for review. It was long on EUR/USD at 1.3220 right around NYO with first TP at 1.3249. (On my demo - still nervous about the live one lol, dam emotions!)
The H4 market flow was long.
The pivot for the day was 1.3220, and there was what seemed like a stop raid an hour before NYO.
The stop raid just clipped the 61.8 fib retracement.
Ok my knowledge of the Judas swing may be incorrect, please correct me if I got this wrong. But I remember from the video that the concept is after a spike most people expect the price to pullback and reverse, but what happens instead is a second spike that takes out all the new stops, and THEN price reverses.
Well in the first hour of the NY session, the price dropped again to the 1.3211 level before shooting upwards. Judas?
When it dropped, I placed my buy limit at 1.3220.
I hit my first TP and closed half my position. The second half is still going, but looks like its going to get closed at B/E+1.
Good trade, bad trade, just luck? Thanks for the feedback!
EDIT: Holy crap it just taanked…I guess I was just lucky, not smart to pull this trade…hmmph
Yes sir works great. The only thing I notice that does not hold up to well as far a concepts from ICT with those pairs is kill zones. At least not lately anyway that might change though like everything else.
The Judas Swing (as I understand it) is a movement in price above or below a previous support or resistance level which is coreographed by the banks to clear up people stops. Once the swing has broken that support / resistance it will then reverse and continue in the oposite direction for an extended period of time / movement.
This is as I understand it. You mention a second spike which I think you might be getting confused with a retracement from the initial bounce. This retracement should not go any lower / higher than the initial bounce and could offer up an Optimum Trade Entry should you miss the oringal swing.
I hope this helps and I believe this is the case surrounding the Judas. Of course I will be happy to be corrected should my understanding be incorrect.
Guy I want to update the trade I made on monday on the aussie and try to drive a point I seem to see has been forgotten on here. ICT one shot one kill. See your setup stalk it and kill it. If you go to Nikitas thread pure price action for dummies you will see the same thing over and over again. 1 shot 1 kill each week. Although you all seem to be doing well. I see some of you are exposing more of your account than you really need to. Thats what leaving some on the table can do. Another lesson I learned from the man. Honestly since doing what he said way back when try only 1 trade a week. I have brought home more pips than I ever have before. Although to truly understand it I did take 3 months off in my trading to learn my enemy (me). I just wanted to bring up this point again as it seems to have gone away. Any how here is how my trade is doing so far. Still holding for 1.0400. Came close but not quite.
Thanks for the feedback and clarification. I think I am still a bit puzzled however. If I figure out how to show this image, I will try to explain what I was thinking.
Ok so the support level is at 1.3220, it is a pivot level. So when I saw the chart at NYO (yellow line), it looked like price broke support and went to 1.3212 or so and went back up. It went up a solid 20 pips before coming back down and going past the support again to 1.3212 before shooting up.
I think I made a mistake calling it a Judas, you are right. I just looked over some notes…I think what I meant to ask was could this be classified as a turtle soup pattern. But as I’m reading, I don’t think that fits either since the second time price came down it didn’t pass the previous low.
Again, thanks for the feedback as it made me do some much needed re-reading, somehow I got lucky today lol.
Thanks I have done this every week. However it took some serious analyzing my trades from last year (before I understood ICT concepts) now that I have an understanding of these concepts (thanks to alot of you guys). Another thing I think is hurting most of us from being able to have a 1 shot 1 kill trade is the same thing they think is protecting them. Trailing your stop. As you can see I do it all the time. However I learn from last year I would get knocked out by my stops alot. I thought they were just to tight. I now know that this holds true somewhat but there is a bigger picture that most traders dont even realize once they are in a trade. I will use the chart above for this. After coming home from work and seeing my trade was still on and price ran down again I was going to do what we all do and move that stop down to lock in more profit. I was going to put it just above the consolidation right before price ran stop at the 1.0500 figure and forming that half ass double top. The reason I didnt is that there is a mid pivot, 1.0500 figure, price would have just moved out of the buy area of traders trinity and OTE of the last swing at this area. This means if I would have been stopped I would be anticipating price retraceing to this area to get back short. Now if this is an area I would Anticipate price going to this level to get short. Why in the hell would you reasonably place your stop there? I think alot alot alot of traders fall victim to this as did (and still do) I. If you would look to enter there this means you expect price to go there and therefore not a good place to put a stop. Now you can enter again of course but now you assume risk. Where as now I could actually scale into my trade and still have a free trade on my hands. just something to think about
That’s a really clean trade StephA. I just looked at my chart, it’s amazing how the OTE method enables you to find the point of the swing with such accuracy. I had a question though, how do you know its a sell zone? Is that one of the ICT indicators? I’ve been trading using S/R and pivots, but I’ve not really started using the trinity. Is that what helped you determine sell zone?
I ask because there might be a misinterpretation when looking at market flow. The H4 was certainly bearish, but the H1 was bullish I believe (at least it was, when price was 1.5888). Does H1 market flow signify much? I guess in the larger picture the S/R level matters more.
By the way, think your trade just hit 100 pips. Jeez you guys are making some really nice trades.
The buy/sell zone is related to the central pivot point (CPP). Price above the CPP is in the sell zone and below is in the buy zone. I only use H4 for market flow and I recall ICT also mentioning that it can be used alone as well in his videos. The daily and H1 market flow also lining up is even better but I don’t rely on them. I studied the trinity tool but never yet incorporated it in my trading. Same for alot of the other tools/concepts released as I want to master the first basic concepts ICT had presented which on their own I believe are very powerful (S/R, OTE, Market flow, Kill Zone, Institutional Levels).
I use traders trinity the same way as pivots if you are in the upper region its the sell zone lower region buy zone. Works great when it lines up with S/R and pivots. Toss in OTE and a candle formation and your golden. Once price break out of traders trinity (happens often) I consider it no longer valid. ICT does touch on ways to trade a broken trinity but I choose not to use it at that point.
