COT was interesting to me (Fri): comms were selling CHF (decreasing their long positions)and there was a slight change in CHF X’s. SNB intervention ?:rolleyes:
WRT: Y- the COT numbers showed the comms were buying (i.e. decreasing their short positions).
Comms were selling (decreasing their long positions) on the Euro -they went from 19K to 5,1480-I THINK:confused:
By itself, this info is misleading! I utilize it only as an adjunct to what I see on my charts.If the COT trend continues (week to week) I expect that currency to do the opposite.
G/Cad looks down but shall wait break down of 1.7615 (3x support from 02/3)
G/Nz: indicators down ( STO 8 O/S & curling up) $< 200 & <low BB (probable retrace.)
G/Aud: $< 200 indicators down but O/S. $ @ low BB { bands widening = more volatility?} I am leaning to downtrend continuation.
E/Y: I still have my long position
Downtrend continuation? Inverted H&S? Will $ go down to 2.5707 ( resistance 08/05/14. support 08/06/18;07/16;1/09;11/13;09/01/26)?
OR: is # @ 62% fib retrace from Jan 5 low to Mar2 Hi?
TanA as well as Ichimoku suggests $ will go down on this pair.The 62% was broken.
Indicators are down; I am short (BUT, MY STOPS ARE @ the HIGH of the PREVIOUS DAY) I move the stop with the high.
D chart TanA: still looks down ( MacD )
STO 8 o/s
$ touched prev supp level (01/26) on Fri. If it breaks that support I am looking @ 2.45ish which was support on 01/5.When $ breaks a 50 or 62% fib ya gotta think there won’t be a retrace til maybe, the next supp/resist level.
Also, rumours suggest that there has been strong buying of the kiwi. I’ll still keep my stops close to the prev day’s hi. I can always jump back in, but I still keep my profits.
I am still long E/Y but my TPP is 130.95 ( the prev W hi. Also, hi for Nov and Dec/08). Shall wait for this level to be closed above afore going long again.
Checked my ichimoku charts to compare with the TanA trades. They seem to be in agreement.
There is a GREAT thread on Babypips describing this trading system ( it is well worth the time and energy to study it)! “Art” put me onto it and it has eased much of my self-doubt before placing a trade.
Interesting point: On the E/Y pair:-fibs drawn from 22 Sept/08-21 Jan/09
$ broke the 38% upward. The 50% fib approximates the D 200 ema ( approx. 134.4ish).
Bank sheets are varied wrt Euro. Some say down, others say E will get stronger. I used to follow the pros and their advice cuz they knew so much more and “had a hand on the pulse of the financial markets”. Then came Lehman, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, etc.
Found my niche wrt TanA and have more pips with less stress.
E/Y: looks like I’ll keep my longs, but will tighten my stop.
Ichimoku (to me) is limit 133.31 with stop @ 129.60 But, 3x hi @ 131.2080 (’ 08/10/29;11/4/12/18) seems better to keep my profits. I can always jump back in.
G/NZ: still short. Ichimoku points down. I shall move the stop to 2.5882 ( approx today’s hi ) with limit 2.5250.
Due to the sustained runs in these pairs-I tighten my stops,cuz they have to end somewhere and retrace. When I determine exactly where that $ occurs, I shall charge megabucks for the info ( I’m sure the professionals would relish that info:D).
she be 133.63 @ this minute. All indicators are O/B
$ approaching 200 ema 134.40.
Based on 24 Feb D candle, this pair will retrace.
E/AUD looks good tonight. On D chart: $ brokethe up trend line.
STO is down as well as MacD . A POSSIBLE TPP is 1.8850 ( approximates the 200 ema).
Will check Ichi & fibs to see if they agree. If they don’t, I shall post.
If they do - I’ll spend my time putting the trade on.;)
9150 appears strong support.
W & M charts show this pair in uptrend.
I am gonna wait.
No action on this pair for me ( still mixed signals).
G/NZ: I am short. Don’t know how much further it can go down ( but it does).
NZ/Y: I have a long on ( indicators are O/S on D. but show no sign of a stall in the up trend).
NZ/Y should have said " indicators are O/B" not O/S.
Don’t normally trade this pair, but on the D chart it looked like a bull flag in an uptrend might be in the works.
18 Dec to Mar 4 fibs has a level @ 1.3319
4 Mar to 23 Mar has a fib @ 1.3246
On the W chart: there is a fib @ 1.3341.
The Euro futures appears to indicate the same bull flag while the dollar index chart looks like a bear flag may be forming.
Just something that I shall keep an eye on ( if it turns out that it is a flag pattern and $ follows the “text book”) it can give a good opportunity for longer term trades.
If it ain’t a flag, then it was just a retrace in the erosion of the Euro and I shall be short bias.
Only 2 pairs, that look promising to me for next week.
G/AUD: death x’s on D chart ( 200> 144> 89 ema’s & heading down).
STO 8/40 down MacD down
$ broke prev support @ 2.093 ( next prev supp @ 2.0430)
G/NZ: looking for 2.4800 ichimoku (chikou supp).
No need to mention that I shall be short bias:rolleyes:GBP -Great Britain’s pounding cannot last forever (can it?).
$ still going to USD (been reading that BIG BUCKS are waiting G7 talks) . Looked @ NZ/US (D) but $ was going up but STO was going down ( had x’d it’s signal). All D ema’s said this pair was up. This pm, STO ruled and $ is down.
4H looks as if a probable H&S is developing ( LS 23Mar 20hr: H 26 Mar 8hr: RS 31Mar 4hr). If this pattern develops- textbook style??? we could look @ 0.5390 which is approx the 200 ema on the 4H chart and middle of BB.AND 0.5353 is 50% fib retrace on D.
Ichimoku & GUPPY, still say up on the D.
I’m thinking sell -but do your own TanA for your stops and limits.
Well, the 4H H&S did not develop- the fundamonals ruled. Appears there was some optimism and decreasing risk-aversion. Also, the fact that NZ is getting money flowing in. The D ema’s were up so no surprise that H&S did not develop.Tomorrow is NFP (should be good for day trades ( scalps).
G/NZ & G/AUD still true to form ( down).
Post # 18 referred to inverted H&S possible. G/Y followed it textbook-like ( had said I would wait for retrace 133 -Mar12 low was 131.41- my TPP was 147.70 and $ went higher:). Going to monitor GDP this weekend -maybe, Pound pounding is passe.
On my way to the Pound, I passed this pair and she looked good.
$ closed higher than 200 ema and short term ema’s were > than medium ones ( and both sets were going up).
Fib drawn from 21 July hi to 12 Dec lo: $ broke > 38% retrace. 89.90 is 50% level ( I’m thinking she’ll get there).
Looks like a 1-2-3 bottom and the #2 pt was broken ( if this is the case then a TPP of 95ish is possible SINCE 93ish is the 68% fib level.
ALSO; a down TL was broken to the upside, and the TPP on that is about 95!
Too many confluences to ignore, in MHO:cool:
As this is a longer term trade,I’ll be changing my shorts on a daily basis:o
On D chart:fibs 23 July- 23 Jan 155ish is the 38% retrace.This is my target.
Of course $ will not go straight there ( cuz, in a perfect world, it would:D)
144/143 is good support approx 10 ema.
FIBs from 25 Sept to 23 Jan: $ is @ 38% ( 148.80) & STO is ) O/B
I shall expect a retrace, then buy.
A couple of bank sheets read that this may be so.
One suggested that a weekly close > 1.5000 could be bullish to gasp,maybe,perhaps 1.6500.WARNING:( {that a W close < 1.4000
could signal renewed Pound pounding} With advice such as this, I shall closely (as in daily monitor the pair afore, I decide to trade.
Anyhow, their logic: if $ closes > 1.5000 (long with TPP 1.5375) If W close > 1.5000 then bullish attitude.
$ > then 68% fib ( Dec hi -Jan lo) watch Feb hi (1.4984) for break.If so . then 1.5372 next level of resistance.
Ichimoku is suggesting buying; BUT my D STO says possible -ve div. possible ( Mar 24-Apr 4)wrt $.The TL on D is up.
My gut is a retrace ( kijun looks strong support @ 1.4209 but I shall use the TL Mar 18-24 for support (1.4330ish).