The risk aversion wrt the Yen, has consolidated many currency pairs ( in my humble opinion).
I did well with the GUPPY, but she consolidated.
She forced me to stray, and I found other GXs that liked me.
This is my story:
GUppy ANd Other pairs.
This pair looks like it might be possible long.
D chart appears somewhat like inverted H&S.
MacD is rising and > H20 and signal.
$ @ 60sma and STO is rising.
I shall wait for break of 1.8250 to enter.
G/NZ was good to me from 2.5900 to 2.8600
She has lots of volatility on 15 & H charts. Drawback was 30 pip spread and 50 cents/pip. Good for scalping. Now she is consolidating, MacD down and STO near O/B on D chart.
G/Aud on D looks like falling wedge. Worth watching for break > 2.2340
W good support @ 23% fib (2,1800).
ON D chart, it appears to be +ve MacD ( 01/16 to 02/10) & STO divergence
On this pair the ema’s ,STO’S & MacD on the D chart say BUY.
I got 1 mini this a.m. (alas, it was weekend & aligning of positions, so I’m down 41 pips)
It still looks like my long should be good.
I’m gonna TanA my GUanO this weekend and plan my trades. (chf/y -appears to be a slow profit maker and I shall monitor it for possible $ to me).
Weekly: possible 1-2-3 bottom.#2 pt should be resistance (85ish). If indeed, she be a 1-2-3 bottom then a break of #2 (85) will give a good uptrend.
MacD going up(but < H2O) & STO going up.
On the Daily:ema’s are up. MacD is going up & @ the H2O line.
STO (8&40) are both upping ( as well as my fave indicator ).
Previous resistance (79.76) was broken as was a down TL (19/01 to 13/02).
If, it is indeed a 1-2-3 bottom, I am buying Sunday, with a limit of 84( my target projection price). Initial stop @ previous week low (figure if $ goes < than last week-it probably, ain’t an uptrend)
G AUD and Y COT info is interesting.
Good break of prev resistance (02/6) which was prev support (13-15 Jan).
STO MacD still up on D
On 4H: $ has retraced to 50% fib ( which is 18 ema) so it should hold.
One item to watch: STO (8) on D chart is in O/B zone.
2ndly; $ is @ the upper BB.
I still have my long open ( this is a longer term trade and being Chicken-s**t) it is a 1 mini size.
I’ll wait for a retrace away from the up BB and for the D STO to go down and then I shall add another long ( 1 mini)
eventual 143
$ @up BB; I am expecting retrace ( 133.70?- 59% fib/10 ema).
I want to see break up of 140 (candle close) then I shall target 143.
The GBP & the JPY COT seems to support this view ( but, I shall wait to see Tue’s info { on Fri} to verify ) If,supportive,then 147 next. TOO MANY IFs=equals patience!!!
1st: a correction- 133.70 should be 50% fib.
Big boys seem to have lost faith in Y so I am anticipating further longs.
$ @ upper BB so I expect a retrace soon.
CHF/Y was very good. Closed my long @ 83.04. As above, $ @ upper BB and STO 8 O/B. On the 4H, 50% fib retrace is 18 ema (looks like good support and a buy entry limit order.
CAD/Y same as above.
G/NZ on D, RR’s and its retrace may be in the works:confused:
Think that I’ll wait 'til tomorrow and see what transpires overnight to determine what I think gives highest probability trade.
Two sources that I have read, mentioned "stepping away’ or “backing up from your charts”. Tonight was a good example. My previous post suggested indecision; so. I went to the G/Y week chart.
As my friend says: “Lord, love a duck!”
$ was sitting @ previous resistance ( W2 09 Jan) which had been previous support for weeks 48/47/46/44/43 !
The W 3,5 ema’s are near the 10 (3x’d >10); STO & MacD are going up (macd has good angle and support) I am going long term to 143.
WOW hindsight! W24-W30 was -ve STO divergence. G/Y went from 215 to 122 (approx).
GUANOS - wrt technicals appear to be retracing for a bit. KEY WORD is appear.
Weekly charts look promising.
I shall save my account for high probability trades.
G/NZ: the down TL from W41 (08) to W6 (09) was broken this week.
STO is up.
CHF/Y: looks like a 2 bottom with all W indicators up.
1 3
85.20 next resistance? Going to check my daily tomorrow and see if I shall trade her.
G/Y: $ @ prev supp/resistance 140
MacD & STO going up. Break up of 141.56 will break high of 09/Jan W2.
Sunday, I shall look at the D charts and see what gives .
COT was interesting yesterday ( from last Tue’s figures).
Hi Al 
Art is here.
I know that most of the risk trades closed the week in a promising mode. I’ve given it a second thought and it looks like the s.h.i.t still stinks a gross way.
“Beloved” fundamonals are telling a tale: “mate it;s gonna be first recession since we have stoped fighting in 1946”. A negative growth in 90% of the economies for 2009 looks for me like a done deal, therefore this technical set ups although looking seducing are worth a dime only - unless I’m wrong a big way.
I’ve started to short it all (E/J, G/J. CH/J) as the current levels are a bargain.
DJ has tested a crucial level and closed below, beging of the next week I think it will test it from below and then melt down further.
So far no joy Mate in my opinion.
:eek:
[QUOTE=pakiestra;92355]Hi Al
Art is here.
I know that most of the risk trades closed the week in a promising mode. I’ve given it a second thought and it looks like the s.h.i.t still stinks a gross way.
“Beloved” fundamonals are telling a tale: “mate it;s gonna be first recession since we have stoped fighting in 1946”. A negative growth in 90% of the economies for 2009 looks for me like a done deal, therefore this technical set ups although looking seducing are worth a dime only - unless I’m wrong a big way.
I’ve started to short it all (E/J, G/J. CH/J) as the current levels are a bargain.
DJ has tested a crucial level and closed below, beging of the next week I think it will test it from below and then melt down further.
So far no joy Mate in my opinion.
:eek:[/QUOTE
Art: truly great to read you again! I agree that our fundamonals are the “sand in one’s crotch” wrt trading.
Last post: I just put my TanA guano on the W charts. As you astutely reported it’s a recession ( the M & W ema’s 200.144.89 all be heading down )
Heck, I remember saying that on Triple R’s thread way back in 2008.
My D TanA says : E/Y in slight retrace mayhaps to 119 ( but will go back to 128). $ is @ upper BB & 89 ema so she gotta back up to take a run at it.
CHF/Y same retrace on D
G/Y has same characteristics as E/Y retrace ( so,I wait afore, buying)
Thanks for your feedback to my GUanO, your input has always, caused me to review my TanA and given me further info. ( you introduced me to Ichimouku which gives further reinforcement to my regular TanA indicators).
Don’t go too deep with your short positions ( short term ema’s have x’d above medium term ema’s.
Stay happy, profitable and say Hello to HRH:)
Art: forgot to mention to you that on the D Guppy, it appears to be -ve STO divergence ( this stays in line wrt your sell strategy).
Yo Art: some TanA on E/Y as a result of your great info input.
One of the banks recommends a trading range this month btn 113 to 130.
( I am guessing that they know as much as you & I). At least with my TanA, I have a smaller channel to deal with.{it may not be correct, but the losses would be smaller.}:o)
On my 4H: it appears that a H&S pattern might be forming.
If so, I shall look for break downward of 121ish and target 118.50.
Should this event transpire; Art, I shall place curses on you:eek:
YOUR Ichmoku on the D says that this pair is supposed to go up!
I am staying out for tonight.
A/Y : D $ @ down TL,89 ema & upper BB. strong resistance.
MacD up ( >signal & H29 line) STO 8 > signal and going up .
4H: STO o/b some retracement.
I shall wait for break up of 64.80 for a buy stop.
CHF/Y: D $ @ last wk’s Hi, $ @ 144 ema STO MacD up
4H $ @ upper BB & STO o/b. I shall watch for retrace, then buy dip.
A/Y: up channel with weekly STO going up.I’m waiting for $ break > 64.50 to long.
CH/Y : Week chart looks like 1-2-3 bottom was formed ( if that be the case- then break >85.50 is my buy stop). And text-book TanA would lead one to believe that a TPP of > 90.?? might be feasible.
This be the pair that I shall focus on this week.
E/Y looks like a long on the W chart but, with the Euro (eu never know:D)
Babbled about 143 after retrace to 133.70.
D chart appeared as possible H&S (inverted) 12/31LS -01/25H-02/12RS.
To my bias, it seems that there is a confluence- the neckline of the inverted H&S is approx the kijun (of Ichimouku) and span B ( of Ichimouku) and if it is an uptrend continuation pattern(?)…
So, on a conservative ( read Chicken…t) basis, I shall wait for a retrace to 133.70 then buy.
A 2nd option, is wait for break > 142.??
I shall PATIENTLY WAIT FOR RETRACE,AS NO TRADE= NO LOSS!
My thoughts on trading nowadays,tend to lean towards " stick with TanA, since the fundamonals are history."!
$ projection (eventually, 146) BUT NOT TOMORROW ok? 6 wks for H&S to develop approx. Patience
The fibs on D approx 134.57 ( 50%) & 133 ( 62%) retracements.
I shall wait for $ to reach the latter. If not, then I can watch for 137.
142 is the safest bet of a reversal
Aud/Cad indicators look up ; but, 8365 is 2x resistance.
CHF/Y $ @144 ema. Down TL broken to upside, but MacD histo down- so I shall wait for retrace then buy
SNB intervention (is BOJ going to follow?). 5382 is 200 ema on D tf and possible resistance (if $ breaks it, will it continue up?) ATM, I think not,but I’ll
wait for a couple of days.
G/Aud & G/Cad look like probable short opportunities next week
Guppy still flat ( I’m gonna wait til levels on prev post are broke) $ did touch 62% fib.
E/Y went up then stalled ( E weakness? or BOJ intervention fear?) Still feel she going up, maybe in a week or so- patience.
Aud/CHF worth a look at this weekend.