So it’s not any more difficult to maintain profitability over 12 months versus 1…?
That’s like saying if 30% of America can run 1 mile then 30% can run a marathon…
Not really, 12 miles would be more accurate.
Lol yes… I got carried away
lol, I do agree though 1 month is far to short a time frame to determine profitability.
I don’t thinks thats a fair assumption. It’s all dependent on the samples, are the random?, stratified? , clusters???
In my opinion a random sample from different brokers would provide the most accurate and be around the 90% mark as it factors in different trading styles, account size etc…
But say if you looked at accounts over $50,000 would there be a higher success rate?. I think so.
So a factor to consider is were is 2ndskyesforex getting his information? A broker/brokers who have a larger minimum deposit attracting more savvy traders?? producing a higher success rate.
Something to consider.
People are inspired by the words of high income or get double your amount. They think forex easy way of earning. Reality is different . Only few traders are successful with their hard work . Otherwise more than 70% are fail to manage their accounts. This market is growing day by day but success level is not increasing.
I think the actual number is much less than 5%. Maybe 10 traders our of every 100,000 truly make it. The market is a tool which can allow you to make great profits and rely on forex trading (or any other trading for that matter) as your primary source of income. It is not nearly as easy to accomplish that and I agree that advertisements are very misleading for obvious reasons. In general stay away from brokers who promote this double your money every month mentality as they are bucket shops. Making money in forex trading is simple, but not easy.
You’ll see why 95% of traders fail if you deliberately chase the market in Demo, worse in Live, use 1m or 5m to speed up the observation, make the bid-ask visible, Buy and it reverses, close buy position and Sell, it reverses, close and Buy, it reverses, and on and on. Here’s another one, place the mouse on Buy or Sell button, and observe the tick data reaction, it usually freezes, pulls back, reverses, and changes color next bar. Here’s another one, go to FreeStockCharts and make a settings comparison of any two or three different things, All the markets move together correlated, futures, stocks, forex, funds, indexes, options, etfs. It’s probably a centralized computer programmed to counter trades. :34:
I will have to disagree with you on that. There is no centralized computer, but markets can move in unison.
I’m curious, do these stats include only individual traders or every party in the market? If it is just individuals, 1.5% making huge profits is actually higher than I would expect.
10 out of 100k? haha those aren’t good odds. What do you exactly mean by “truly making it”? making millions or just being able to trade full time for a livable wage?
I saw a statistic released by the NFA I think and in average with 5 brokers including IBFX just 25% of people make money. I don’t know maybe it seems to be a little easier.
This is from FXCM reports, unfortunately it’s rather old, from 2010.
However, it does agree with Mr Gone’s assumption of around 25% being profitable
Here is some added info
See more: FXCM Release Extra Forex Trader Profitability Statistics
As a side note, these stats could be skewed as they are for quarter by quarter increments. However, by taking a four quarter average we could assume this is rather consistent.
This is the most common statement we see on almost all the forex forums. Most of the new traders tend to be aggressive while trading and are not knowledgeable enough to manage their funds efficiently and thus because of their weak mindset they fail in the forex trading business.
The problem is that that is measuring a 3 month period and is not differentiating between ‘incidence’ and ‘prevalence.’ I’ll write a long ramble on my thread some other time.
[QUOTE=“JackMarkets;487901”]
The problem is that that is measuring a 3 month period and is not differentiating between ‘incidence’ and ‘prevalence.’ I’ll write a long ramble on my thread some other time.[/QUOTE]
Agreed…
Look at the % profitable to capitalization. People with larger capitalization have a higher chance of success. even if the absolute numbers are incorrect if we just look at it relatively. going from a tiny account to a 1-5k account increases your odds of success by 45%. from 5k to 10k+ is another 7.22% Which is basically reinforcing a very common axiom. Undercapitalization is a very dangerous for traders just like businesses. But I am sure there is an experience/seriousness bias in there. Most people trading forex or on this forum are probably doing the tiny account thing. if you’re willing to put up 10k+ your probably taking it much more seriously.
So basically your chance of success increases as your account size increases. Which is something everyone is told to do but doesn’t instead they want more leverage and smaller accounts. Classic newbie blowout recipe. Imagine being able to add some additional % chance of success only by adding a few more K to your account. It didn’t even take additional, skill, knowledge or experience. It just took more money to give yourself a larger cushion to learn before you blow out. Its really about survival.
I’d like to add that I’ve had my same $500 live account for almost a year now. I’m not saying that a bigger account point is moot. But more of a seriousness thing like meihua said. People with smaller account are probably more likely to “gamble”
Plus… People with more money are probably older, more experienced, and generally smarter 
People with larger capital invested, more than likely, used to have smaller accounts which they used to start learning/practicing.
Chances are the larger account sizes is not the individual’s first Forex account. It’s the fact that they have the confidence now to take Forex more seriously. So with these larger account balances, these are the guys who already know (generally) what they’re doing.
Another source of these larger accounts is through Managed Accounts (CTAs). I think this is probably the majority of these accounts. Most of these account holders are investors in funds and not traders themselves.