I fully understand what you are saying here.
But I would offer two thoughts here:
- in this business there are two different approaches.
- The first is what we think price will/should do in the (near) future. This is primarily based on our sentiment formed from what we have read and heard.
- The second is what price is actually doing now and has done in the past. This is primarily based on our chart analysis.
When trading off short term charts (less than daily) then our own sentiment is really quite irrelevant since spikes/jerks/jumps/wiggles etc occur randomly all day within any overall direction. Therefore, our chart reading is far more relevant and should cover at least three factors: where/when to enter, how far price might reach and where price tells us we are wrong and to get out.
- Based on the above, what are we actually trading?
Although there are many different instruments, we are not actually trading pounds or dollars or yen or oil or gold, etc. We are trading only one product, and that is probability. It is the same in every instrument. We never know what will happen next but we can assess what is most likely to happen.
And this leads directly to the same conclusion as point 1. Unless you are a wizard at collecting and analysing all relevant data and sentiment affecting an instrument at any one time you cannot predict what will happen next on short term charts.
So what are we left with? Well, your Technical Analysis. And that is all you need from your charts. By looking at where price is and where it has been one can evaluate what is the most likely next move and on what conditions. But, again, it is crucial to success that one evaluates those same three things: which direction is most likely, how far in the right direction is likely, how far in the wrong direction before our scenario is invalidated and time to exit.
Without these three related factors you cannot perform the most crucial and decisive step that divides the winners from the losers in this business: Your risk management. Once you have these three factors in concrete terms you can evaluate the trade in terms of your risk P/L parameters and decide on the validity of the trade. E.g. if the likely profit is small relative to the sensible stoploss level then reject the trade. If the profit level is good v. the stoploss cost but both too distant in absolute terms then take a smaller position size, etc, etc.
This way, you only take high quality trades both in terms of high probability of success and high profit v. loss ratios.
If you had taken this kind of approach to these two trades you mentioned above you probably would not have made this thread in the first place!! Why? Because, whether they won or lost, they would have done so at levels you had already pre-defined and were within your trading parameters. In other words, you are looking at the long term profit growth evolution rather than just focusing on each individual trade as a success or failure.
Just some thoughts, not necessarily correct, but hope it at least stimulates some constructive thinking!