This is very true. The OP played the game by all the TA rules - he was on hr1 for a short term move - there had been a triple top formed H&S with broken neckline and a series of lr hi’s after the triple top.
Below is a the chart that the OP was looking at just before sell entry.
So what happened Oct26th?
First thing is to understand that the up move was GBP only and not USD selling (see eur/usd) - and right now the market is debating how soon the BOE will raise rates. The BOE are recently signalling sooner rather than later although there is a huge debate therein.
Bottom line is that any news that has a bearing on BOE decision making will cause price to move beyond what it would be expected to do.
Buyers came in on Oct26 but not enough to make the triple top, 2 days later they had another attempt and again not enough of them to reach the previous high - so price then duly fell due to lack of buyers (not to say they won’t be back)
Edit: forgot to say - the CBI UK Retail report was released Oct26 - 30 vs 13 expected.
Going forward - actual retail sales UK will be published Nov19 so watch GBP that day.
They were last published Oct22 for month Sept. and were disappointing (DT formed Oct21) - there is a heads up on what may actually happen a couple of weeks beforehand here:
If you look at the left part you chart you can spot similar behaviour, down and then up. GBP is prone to abrupt movements and I wonder why you decide to open the second trade at the top
Great break down SovoS with a clear explaination
The best way we learn is from our mistakes. Patience is so important and definitely money management.
Sometimes it’s better to enter with a small margin then build it up as the market goes your way. If it doesn’t then you can rebuild going the other way.
Be patient
Everyone is telling you what they think should’ve been done or where you went wrong. Hindsight is always 20/20. It looks to me that you fomo’d with that buy position. Psychology is a big part of trading. If the trade isn’t following your plan dont take it! Instead of having 1 loss now you have two because you weren’t following your plan! Focus on proper execution of your plan! If your plan has an edge the money will come, losing is part of the game! Now if you dont have a true plan that you can write down then thats a different conversation.STICK TO YOUR PLAN!
I would not take on board the criticism of your entry - except for one thing.
Given the turmoil within the Boe right now I mentioned elsewhere that there would be some volatility with GBP.
On the chart i posted there is a yellow downtrend line that you likely were aware of - below the same chart with the same line extended to this morning - clearly the only thing ‘wrong’ with your sell trade was it’s stop (re the volatility) - a stop above the triple high with a tp set for today (Boe publish tomorrow) would yield 2 to 1
Tomorrow is also a good learning day on Gbp - if the boe raise then a knee jerk up - then likely sellers will take advantage of the higher price - if no raise then reasonable chance of the selling continuing.
But remember that GBP would need wider stops.
I agree completely - it is easy to criticise with the benefit of hindsight. Those who choose that path are often “Lightweights”
Therein lies one of teh most difficult challenges we face as traders - Getting your stops right !
@peterma is a knowledgeable trader and his advice is always worth listening to - even if you decide eventually that you will still back your own view.
I’m not entirely sure whta time of day your little “event” took place although it does look remrakably like a “LONDON OPEN” event. The London open is a phenomenon in it’s own right and trading it is a specialist subject in it’s own right - which you may choose to look at on various U tub vids ! Many people offer “Advice” on how to trade it - but as in all things trading - there seems to be no single reliable way of making consistent profits from it unless you do specialise - but you should be aware that it exists !
It is not criticism in the sense of “I know better” or necessarily from amateurs that don’t know themselves what they are doing.
There is no point in someone posting a situation here unless they want views on what went wrong (which it clearly did!) and what kind of things could have been looked at which can be helpful in future decision-making situations.
The OP invites comments and will get all kinds of responses. It is up to him to sift through what is useful to him and what is not. A blanket dismissal by you of everyone else’s earlier comments is, in my opinion, in the category of what is not…
Comments made for the sake of saying something negative such as ‘clearly you shouldn’t open sell position’ or 'you lack proper knowledge ’ are neither helpful or constructive and simply fall into the category of ‘criticism’.
If a learner takes on board such criticism then good chance he/she will end up quitting.
Your own particular post could hardly be termed ‘critical’ but there are a few above that can be so termed - I see one even got the direction wrong!.
Anyways as Falstaff says it’s all hindsight stuff, the Fed have published and the market now digesting - Inflation still deemed ‘transitory’ - " Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting factors that are expected to be transitory"
There’s a little difference in nuance from last time but very little - so carry on as you were with USD
Exactly! So it is not nice to generalise with an all-inclusive derogatory comment. If one feels that certain comments should be corrected or specified as unhelpful then refer to them specifically.
I appreciate that there is an old boys group of mutual support here on BP but that does not excuse such generalised downgrading of others as lightweight and unhelpful…just saying…
I was the poster who suggested the OP not take on board the criticism and nothing to do about old boys support , I simply agree that the criticism mentioned could neither be termed helpful or heavyweight - but that’s just my view - it’s the OP’s learning curve at the end of the day.
Thank you. I definitely FOMO’d long. With the power of hindsight I should have left my short position open for another 24 hours or closed it; both are better than what I did.
