I want To share My recent analysis using Elliot Wave Theory that also can be used to read other strategy such as Advanced Pattern, etc.
This example is good for newbies or pro trader. So Your Comment and Critics are Very2 Welcome to Increase My Ability to become more Wise Trader
You don’t have To trust me, But use this as your reference about how good Elliot Wave is. Because Trust is earned By repetitive Truth. So if you keep using Elliot wave Sooner or Later you will realize how great it is.
Unfortunately, Since i’m not and Aggresive trader, I only taking 1 trades which is 18 Feb that already hit my first TP. Now i moved my stop to BEP because i’m afraid of the news volatile price.
Yes Elliot wave is one of a must trading knowledge that you should know a thing or two.
Just want to emphasize that this in one of the way of trader to be able to Survive in trading market.
But it’s Also True that there are other system in this world that able to make people survive in this market.
Good Luck for finding your own system. and please make this Elliot Wave as one of your reference before you entering Forex Market.
The Elliot wave theory and candlestick analysis is really essential to any broker working with technical analysis. I confess I understand the latter better than the former, but I’m slowly getting there.
E[B]lliot wave creator R.N. Elliott died as a poor man .[/B]
And everybody who using their valuable time to understand elliot wave theory will ending up with the same destiny.
Except them who start to selling elliot courses or analyse
[B]Some wise word from Technical analyst David Aronson
[/B]
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. [U]The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations[/U].
I contend this is made possible by the method’s loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. [B]This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[/B]
Thanks for your Comments for the Pro and Contra in Elliot wave theory.
To be honest, I don’t really understand whether Elliot is poor or rich man.
But in my journey to become a trader. I learn all of things with one things in mind “I don’t believe all my seminar speaker nor my trading mentor taught me” But I did not hating all of their knowledge, In fact I make all their positive teaching mine and sort all the negative method. but at the end i’m still Try all of the Theory including candlestick, Advanced pattern, VSA, Elliot wave, Etc.
And finally with my friend and mentor help we realize that elliot theory is not perfect, but we can make it better with the additional touch of other theory or additional measurement. thats what we call the second generation is here to help make perfection for the first generation theory.
That is also i start up this thread in order to compile all of people comment and critics to patch up my flaws and keep making this Elliot wave theory better.
I also have story below for your statement "[B]Elliot Died as Poor man[/B]"
Please correct me if I’m wrong since i’m just a normal human being.
I do recall that Sir Alan Turing The one who offered [B]Science of Computer was dead in miserable way and living a miserable life[/B]. ( i know this because i watch Imitation game Movies )
But what the computer affect our live now? and what is the second generation do? We as the second generation build better computer.
and now “[B]you will amaze how people in each office will need a single computer for a single person[/B]” the one who enjoy the benefit is not Sir Alan. he wasn’t living in a good life.
Maybe you also interested in this statement:
Confucius ever said that there are two type of people: [B]Small People and Big People[/B].
Small people: it means this people don’t think about others and only think about himself he will not spend every single of his money to help others.
Big people: he put others above himself, he teach without fee, he cure people without fee, he help people without fee. So the conclusion that this big people - he will help others to become a rich person but he himself did not really care about what will happen to him -
Again this is just my opinion “Rich People not always right - Poor People not always Wrong” so before judging them by their condition - it is better to keep their idea as long as it is makes sense.
Also Regarding This statement:
[B]This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility[/B]
Many people said Elliot is to flexible, Yes Thats True, and Why this theory very flexible? It’ is because we as human is always change their Decision EveryWeek - Everyday - Everyhour or even Everyminute. That’s why Elliot Wave have subdivision. depend on how people behave in certain degree.
This is reflected about what we do every day, we made schedule but we sometimes ignore it due to several reason.
We also keep changing our opinion in several people due to several reason.
We also have our bodyweight increasing or decreasing due to several reason.
We sometimes plan buys 2 product in grocery but sometimes we buy less or buy more.
Or sometimes we cannot decide where we need to go.
Since Human Keep changing their mind - So does the Wave. The important part is This theory is teach us how to read Human Pattern and Behavior then trade from it.
This is just my personal story and opinion guys
I’m not always right - But I’m not also always wrong. So keep in mind my way of trading
If it is help you please put like in my post and sorry if my post did not giving you anything.
In my opinion trying to fix a broken system like elliot wave theory is not even worth the time, if he cant even make money off his own system then why even use it, making money off a system is like the track score of how well the system is doing.
You can compare RN Elliot to picasso too saying itll take time to make money off of it but the whole point is the system SHOULD be making money right now without needing to fix it in time. Id pass on this system.
just because You dont see it, it doesnt mean it isnt there and it doesnt mean im not making money out of it.
Anyways, everyone has his/her own attempt to trading, i am very friendly with the thought that the older the practice is the more reliable it is. verysimple, if something is around for a hundret years then it is around for a good reason. i remember a hundret anlysis tactics from 100 authors that had some holy grail **** and guess what? noone earned money and their systems are gone lost forgotten long ago.
the real problem with the elliot wave thing is that 99% of people recognise its a good wave movement at the beginning or the end of wave 5. the wave principle is not a tradable principle, it is a confirmation and scale in principle. if you want to make money outof it then only by using it as confirmation and points to sclae into your trade.
Another problem with the elliot wave is that it rarely functions on small scale. The minimum scale where it is good is the daily chart.
the initial analysis onto when to enter a new trade is made away from the elliot wave principle
Thats Right TURBONero (Good analysis) - Most of the people thinks this is broken things. But actually It need lot of time and effort to use it properly.
I myself if don’t have friends who able to guide me. maybe i will take more than it should to learn this analysis.
Thanks for the comment - But it would be really great if you show me something that could prove that this is a broken system. for me I already shows by analysis that elliot is working.
If you could show me you can count the waves and it is proven that we could not use this system. I would be very delightfull to leave elliot theory in my trading. because if this system wrong. I will bust my account sooner or later.
Thats why i’m strating in this forum to search people like you that could prove me that i’m wrong. so that i could enhance my trading ability and system:
Just for additional example this is one of my analysis that i trade trade using the elliot wave theory combine by advanced pattern and using my own strategy:
This picture shows my analysis first -but i don’t trade by analysis only my analysis shows projection to the south and i’m waiting for breakout to enter the trade and i will cut the trade out when it arrive at the Gartley Last Leg (this chart in daily time frame):
2nd After it reach the last leg of the gartley, I will not directly Buy at the Last Leg. I wait for the confirmation of the Wave to the Up for my buy setup. This setup I trade Gartley because it will making projection for Wave C in Lower Degree of time frame (that is 1 hour). Example below:
There you go.
Please next time put some example in your Pro and Contra in this forum.
Because it Will Help Other and Help you in filtering trading system.
With any indicator or any system you can always find some situations where it will work at and some situations it wont work at. The problem is with EW is when you back test it or live trade it, it doesnt work because the win % of the system is low, there are too many fakes.
That is the same problem I had with alot of indicators like fibonacci, when you use a system with a low % win rate on its own and plug it with other systems or indicators it will drag down the overall win %.
That’s quite true. It’s really complex thing.
I also stated in other post, before i use elliot, i learn a lot of method and spend 6-8hours a day until i memorize how the chart work. and elliot wave make it better to analyze the chart.
If you really interested in elliot, you can post how you count the wave in several chart and I will share also my analysis. so you can check actually how i calculate the wave.
Thanks for your opinion,
But in my opinion, Indicator help you to do your analysis.
And i have pattern and Elliot wave analysis that shows 50%-50% win lose probability.
How can i come still in profit with this winning ratio? thats where the strategy and money management comes. I only trade 1:2 risk reward ration.
Also this is the common mistakes that people do in elliot, They try to enter in the beginning and closed it at the top of the waves.
This is absolutely can’t do!
I’m not a god so i don’t know when it’s stop and when it’s began.
I only follow the middle of it.
Also a bit of advice, please ignore it if my advice does not make any sense.
How you draw fib. you must draw it from the top wave to the bottom waves or the other way around. thats why you should know how to calculate the waves before put fib.
after you put fib, you don’t directly enter at 38.2 or 61.8. you need to analyse their power and pattern. the price should stop between that fib.after it hold temporarely you can check whether this is reversal or just retracement.
Also don’t forget how to draw trend line properly.
So that i could give you any explanation or at least something that could help you in your trading.
There is no simple things in Trading, But you can make it is as simple as buying candies when you do it everyday until you get used to it.
I’m not a perfect trader, sometimes i made flaws. but at least i can survive and make a bit of pips in my forex trading.
Look forward again to all of your comment
Thanks and Good Luck
