Hello,
I’ve been trying out trading using PA and I like not using indicators… I’ve been pretty accurate about some of my predictions but sometimes it feels like guessing… I’m wondering if most traders feel that way at first and as you do it more you trust yourself more… maybe I feel this way because I jusy started? Thoughts?
This depends on how you’re doing your analysis.
Maybe we’ve all been in this boat early on. Maybe you need to get more methodical and re-focus on what you are going to do about price, rather than what price will do.
So, if you see price X and your TA tells you its probably going to go up, put a buy order sufficiently far above X that price action confirms your analysis and is probably going to continue further up, but not so far that you enter at the very end of the upward move. Put a stop-loss sufficiently far below entry so that if price hits it, this confirms that price is going to do the less likely thing and go down. This doesn’t mean your TA was wrong, it just means that you won’t be long when price is falling.
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I think we likely all go through that. After all, you can have a strategy which gives you a winning trade six times out of ten. You wouldn’t know until you had placed lots of trades, and through those initial trades you wouldn’t have the confidence of that knowledge.
I run a little RSI alongside my PA - it is surprising how often you get some supporting factor for your trade idea from that.
But ultimately it is all guesswork, it is just educated guesswork. Place 50 trades, if you’re right over half the time you will gain some confidence. Rinse, repeat - you’ll soon see whether your approach works or not.
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