I guess that’s why you are driving the Maserati and I’m still polishing my pushbike! ![:joy: :joy:](https://forums.babypips.com/images/emoji/twitter/joy.png?v=9)
![:joy: :joy:](https://forums.babypips.com/images/emoji/twitter/joy.png?v=9)
The Saudi Arabian energy minister said in his press conference that about half of the disrupted output is back on line and that repair work should be completed by the end of the month. And, in the meantime, SA would use their inventories to maintain their exports levels.
So two of the three issues have been resolved: how long the repairs would take, and can sufficient reserves be found to compensate for the shortfall! Fortunately, the damage was not as great as was initially anticipated!
The third issue, however, is still a concern - what repercussions may ensue from this major escalation. The US has officially claimed that the missiles/drones were launched from Southern Iran. Saudi Arabia also stated that it did not attempt to shoot down these weapons because they were coming from the north and their defence installations were all pointed south against possible attacks coming from the Houthi in Yemen. In other words SA was looking the “wrong” way.
But that possibly explains why there were no personnel injuries. SA would have detected the incoming missiles even though they were unable to counter them, but would have had ample time to evacuate in line with obviously well-rehearsed procedures - given the sensitivity of the target to attack (it has been attempted before).
As we have suggested in many different issues earlier, Mr Trump is not looking for a war in “distant lands” just at the time when he is starting his re-election campaign. That would hand the opposition far too much ammunition against him and distract his focus on his own campaign domestically. Such a war in the Middle East would also tend to be protracted and expensive and extremely complicated regionally (e.g. look at Syria!). In addition, the US is somewhat self-sufficient in energy and this is not a huge direct threat to the US economy or energy costs.
But Mr Trump surely IS looking for some concrete triumphs from all the political and economic “wars” that he has personally ignited - which, one could say, also includes the Iran problem here.
Oil prices have now discounted the good news following the SA outage - but is still maintaining a premium reflecting increasing tensions and risk of “what comes next”.
But set against that is still the underlying condition that existed prior to the SA attack and still continues: a global excess of oil inventories, sliding economic growth globally and expanding moves away from fossil fuels towards new alternative technologies.