Through the glass darkly

From Gilead:

Gilead commented that, “the totality of the data need to be analysed in order to draw any conclusions from the trial,” in a statement to Reuters. A statement from the University of Chicago Medicine said that “drawing any conclusions at this point is premature and scientifically unsound.

The study had no control group and info leaked was from an internal discussion, not official data from Gilead.

The report from the Chicago hospital comes amid mounting anecdotal evidence supporting the drug’s potential effectiveness in treating the virus. Last week, the New England Journal of Medicine published an analysis showing that two thirds of a small group of severely ill patients saw their condition improve after taking the drug. These patients were given Remdesivir as part of a compassionate use program which allows doctors to provide patients with unauthorized treatments when no other treatment is available.

There was no control group in the University of Chicago study. As CNBC’s Meg Tirrell has highlighted, this is not controlled clinical trial data — it is a glimpse into what one of the sites that is running the trial is seeing.

The information reported by STAT News came from an internal discussion among faculty members at a University of Chicago hospital captured on video, it was not official data released by Gilead or any other trial leader.

Furthermore, this data comes from a single trial site. The Barclays health-care equity research team wrote: “While these data are encouraging, they are uncontrolled and from a single center.”

Jefferies echoes this point: “Similar to the NEJM publication last week, yesterday’s reports are based on one site and there is no placebo.”

There is also debate around the severity of the patients included in the study. This data is part of an ongoing phase three trial of patients with severe Covid-19 symptoms. However, the patients were not intubated to start the study. Barclays adds that there will be debate around the patient population and how they compare to past cohorts.

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Which means, they need more science! I’m sure if every trial and potential cure was discussed, it would seem like something was around the corner, when actually we’re just a tiny tad closer to something useable.

Thank you @Pippo and @TradingPanda for your contribution. It is indeed still a way to go before we are have something concrete. But, at the present stage, this, and possibly others like it, are a glimpse of a so-called “light at the end of tunnel”. A light that has so far only glimmered as a result of signs of a levelling off in new cases.

But the problem with such levelling off is that it is the result of the very restrictions that are now being gradually lifted as a result of the levelling off! In other words, there is a very strong possibility of a resurgence in the form of a second wave of rising infections.

I think an awareness of the preliminary nature of the Remdesivir results was reflected in the market movements yesterday (Friday). The initial enthusiasm in Asian markets drifted off in early US trading and never really found any real enthusiasm later - although we did close the week off the lows.

Based on what’s happening in South Korea, Singaore, and Japan, it’s almost guaranteed that there will be a second wave.

The only time I’ll see a light at the end of the tunnel is when testing capacity is to a level where it’s possible to do millions of tests a day.

Potential treatments like Remdesivir are promising but if hydroxychloroquine is a any guide, there’s probably not going to be enough of it as it gets hoarded and Gilead laughs all the way to the bank.

The only two reasons I can think of why there would not be a second wave before a cure/vaccine appears are a) people gain a natural immunity from having already caught it (the majority of people only have mild symptoms or even none at all), or b) the virus fades into a natural cyclical dormancy as with most other influenza type viruses.

A natural immunity is another form of social distancing in a way.

The natural spread of the virus is also interesting in that it appears to vary so greatly in different regions. For example, it hit Italy and Spain so hard and fast that I have been anticipating a similar but greater totally destructive wave to rip through places like India and Africa, where medical facilities and hygiene are considerably worse than in the developed world - but, at least according to released data so far, it isn’t happening in that way.

But it is clear from statements by political figures and medical leaders that we are not actually concerned with eradicating the virus totally, rather we only want to see the P2P infection transmission ratio down to 1:1 or less, i.e. a stable situation where on average each new infection only infects one more person. That is a state of control and reason to ease up restrictions. If the ratio starts to rise again, then some relevant restrictions are tightened or expanded - i.e. control.

I am not sure even that would qualify as a “light”. Surely, its main purpose is again mainly only to restrict the spread of the virus. The results of the test are only good for a day or two, after which the person is again a risk factor.

Testing does provide the possibility of tracing contacts and isolating at an earlier stage, but once the spread is so significant, the demand on resources to track and identify potentially exposed people becomes phenomenal. Imagine, if you have recently been to a supermarket, apart from the staff, how can one detect which other customers would have been there at the same time and in sufficiently close proximity to have been at risk? Mobile tracking and apps development can play a role in this, but we are still only talking about restricting the rate of spread.

This is why I believe that a cure for symptoms is far more effective than a vaccine. The number of infected people that actually end up with serious symptoms and the need for hospitalisation is a mere speck compared with the need to vaccinate the entire globe!

All it needs to be is a drug that inhibits the development of other diseases such as pneumonia or the overreaction of the body’s own immune system that causes fatal damage to vital organs, etc.
Whether one drug company can patent and retain sole rights to such a drug remains to be seen. But even if it does and makes billions, it is still better than seeing our globe return to the pre-industrialisation era!

Of course, there are also the usual speculative conspiracy theories, such as this was a deliberate release by China (personally, I am pretty convinced this originates from an accidental leakage from the virology laboratories studying precisely these kinds of viruses and situated only metres from the market in Wuhan where it all started - that is too much of a coincidence for me to dismiss the connection!).

But we could also fantasize that this is actually a form of biological warfare and that China already has, and is using, an antidote. But is waiting until all the other major world economies are on their knees before releasing it so that the new East to West “Silk Road” not only provides the solution but also becomes the new global supreme economic/military power controlling the economic rebuild throughout the New World.

And the only major cost is a small and temporary dent in its own GBP, whilst the rest of the globe is sinking. A war in which all infrastructure still remains untouched and the workforces intact, whilst the main casualties are the old and sick who one could consider as only a drag on economies anyway! Sounds too rough to be true? Maybe, but it wasn’t that many years ago that we had a tyrant inflicting similar such policies and practices on at least a European scale and with global intentions. And genocide is far from non-existent amongst the nations currently inhabiting our globe.

Humanitarian considerations v. economic strength. Most countries are recognised for their bias in this respect…

But conspiracy theories are exactly just that - fictional speculation. The stuff of novels. However, just as with humour, the closer fiction is to reality (potential or otherwise), the more meaningful it becomes.

If you are inclined to think that Covid-19 social distancing and other restrictions are unnecessary then this might change your mind - this is how it kills you - or rather, the many different ways it can kill you - and from a very reliable publication:

There are a number of themes on BP that continue ad infinitum, such as “why do traders lose”. I guess there are two main reasons for their continuance, a) there is a constant stream of newcomers to the business and b) there is no single answer to the question.

One of these themes is what timeframe is the best and most profitable. This question in particular sits right on the interface between newcomers and the experienced community - and one could expect to see some very consistent answers from the respondents to this issue. What is surprising, though, is the what we usually do see is a full range of recommendations ranging from scalping to daily, even weekly, timeframes.

What does this tell us about this issue (apart from the questionable basis of some of the replies!)?

In my opinion, asking “what is the most profitable timeframe” is asking the wrong question. In the same way that there is no single answer to “what is the best system/method/approach”.

Personally, (and that is why I normally only write here in the BP backwaters), I think the real spotlight should be shone on oneself and ask “What is right for me”? What kind of trading suits me and my character and my circumstances. Trading methods and characteristics are “bespoke tailoring” to the individual and what sits well on one person will only cause discomfort to others.

Another factor to consider is that both our characters and our circumstances change over time and so will our trading patterns - again there is no single homogeneous answer.

Another issue concerns the markets themselves. They change. Sometimes gradually, sometimes suddenly. And all timeframes carry their own general and specific risks. Some even extreme, such as being caught with open positions over a weekend by a black swan event on Monday gapping miles through your stop level. Rare but real!

So, in my opinion, the issue is find out first what trader shape you are and then tailor your wardrobe to fit it.

There are also many variations that don’t get looked into very deeply. For example, we often talk about “day-trading” without specifying what we mean by that. To some it means scalping (many positions, small pip amounts, large position size, etc), for others it means trading mini-trends off 15m-1m TFs (2-3 trades per day, 10-50 pips average, etc). In the same way, using daily charts often suggests trades that last maybe 2-30 days.

But there are also hybrid methods. For example, I know that I cannot carry trades for more than 2 days max - I don’t like the pressure of constantly having open trades and I hate seeing a promising-looking trade with a nice open profit suddenly crash to my stoploss after a few days of monitoring it! But I am quite happy with a trade that crashes immediately after entry. It happens, and it is built into my risk/money management parameters. But when it happens, it is over, forgotten, and I move on to the next! But that is just me, equally, it is not ok for others, who might get sucked in psychological stress and the resultant loss of confidence and even revenge trading, throwing the rule book out the window.

But hybrid trading models offer a cross-breed model. I do not personally find day-trading consistently profitable when just using short-term charts (and I have primarily been a day-trader a long, long time). I also need the background “big picture” to provide the necessary selectivity when considering trade set-ups as well as for defining sensible areas for targets and stops.

If you like, my personal hybrid approach is based on taking bite-sized chunks out of the overall on-going move (and whether there actually is an on-going move!). But even this is not clear-cut. All trends wax and wane and that is no exception with long term moves either. And end-moves do have a habit of collapsing faster than the gradual build-up during the trend. So taking smaller chunks from a longer term move is also dangerous when that underlying move is ending.

Watching the underlying trend does not inhibit trading against it on a day trade basis, it just means that the risk/money management rules should compensate for the additional risk and the targets should also be more conservative - i.e. tailored to the circumstances. For example, a day-trade signal that lines up with the daily/4-hour chart might be open-ended with an EOD close and with a trailing stop, which is moved to B/E after a certain point. But a 1-hour chart day-trade against the “big picture” might be half-sized, with a limited target point and a tighter stoploss such as above a previous high.

Just examples. My point being that the “best method” is individual-specific and not a universal. Even if what one trades is not potentially the most profitable in theory, it is still the best option if it suits your circumstances and personality. If it works consistently for you then it is only an issue of position size to make it worthwhile.

Be creative, search the alternatives, know your trading “body”:

Bespoke tailoring is a traditional way of making clothes by hand on the basis of an individual pattern. A pattern is the construction plan for the different parts of a garment created with body measurements, which take into consideration the unsymmetrical shape of the human form”

Today’s SP500 provided a good example of this. Both the 4H and 1H were in negative territory according to the blue leading fastband on the chart below (daily chart neutral). And the 15m was also in a new, strong down move. Two trades, 360 points/pips. (actually also one middle entry that I scratched for a few pips, hoping to resell at a higher price). Since all three charts were nicely lined up, position size was double my normal size. If it had been against the 4H then position size would have been half my normal size and with a closer stop.

This was 2 day-trades within an overall longer term price scenario. Bite-size chunks. It’s an approach that suits my makeup and my circumstances, a few hours of monitoring the early NY response to overnight oil news, etc and then the trades, now I’m free to “enjoy life” until tomorrow. I really don’t care whether it carries on down or up or sideways. It is totally irrelevant to my approach. I look for the set ups whatever the price might be. What I look for is consistent chunks from high-probability set-ups across the three TFs (+daily).

The three charts fit nicely on one screen L=>R 4H, 1H, 15m:

Definitely one of those things we wouldn’t have known if we’d tried it. E.g. if we didn’t shut down, maybe we’ll be saying we should have shut down instead because X, Y, Z. Maybe more deaths, maybe stores closing down anyway, maybe an insane number of patients in hospitals a la Italy. :sob:

I do agree that we need to reopen (economy, mental health, and a myriad other reasons) but my view is also tainted by family members and friends who are in the healthcare industry. (And these were people who weren’t taking the virus seriously when I first told them about it!)

A combination of certain sectors being closed while some opening up sounds like a good balance but as with all things, it’s easier said than done. One potential problem I’m seeing is rent being due for businesses that are in states that will reopen next week. What if the business can’t reopen just yet? Just some technical details that can be missed I suppose. :confused:

You are certainly right that the authorities can only make decisions based on what is known at the time and try to act in the best overall interest. Mr Trump’s comments from the start of the infection in the US show exactly that when compared with his actions and comments in more recent days. It is easy to see things with the benefit of hindsight.

Where I live, we have not had an overall lockdown. Schools and restaurants are closed but shops are not forced to close (although many have furloughed their staff and closed anyway because there are no customers to serve anyway!). The capital and surrounding area was isolated for a few weeks, except for essential traffic, to restrain the spread to other regions and that seemed to work extremely well - but it has been lifted now so we will see if and how the virus spreads from now on.

One serious problem, that I do not understand at all, is that so many people totally ignore social distancing and other recommendations even though they are emphasised constantly and everywhere!

But one kind of ironic change is in transport. For the last year or two we have heard nothing more than that people should leave their cars at home and use public transport for environmental reasons. Now we are being encouraged to only use our cars and avoid public transport whenever possible for virus reasons! :smiley:

But this was a rather disturbing article from Chinese scientists concerning the ability of the coronavirus to mutate, which has, until now, been vastly underestimated. And that these mutations affect the deadliness of the strains. Maybe this is why Italy and Spain suffered so extraordinarily fast and aggressively, whilst places like India and Africa do not seem to be suffering anywhere near so aggressively:

Sorry for such a delayed reply, my focus has been elsewhere. Looking forward to catching up on reading your thread since my last post. Would definitely like to post some winners and losers and trades I’m considering if that is ok.

BTW… beautiful sunset last night. This is from our back deck…

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Hey we’re in the same boat!!

This is what I am coming to terms with now. Too often I would never get off the elevator and ride it back down to the breakeven lobby or worse the 3rd level underground.

It’s interesting how everyone approaches this - I have come to believe it’s much more of a “head game” than I have ever realized. MUCH more!! @Lang15 - the scruffy trader - takes some money of at 50 pips. I have started doing that and have to “codify” my procedures. Still don’t have it down 100%.

I noticed that you are referring to points. To confirm points vs pips… 10pts to a pip?

It’s crazy to hear some of the TV dr.s and talking heads talking about putting it in perspective, it’s only the flu, time to open up, blah, blah, blah… it’s easy to rationalize a percentage death rate when it doesn’t effect the person talking.

I recognize this entry but usually “blow” the exit as I convince myself it’s a bottom/top turn and try to stay in for the “long-haul” versus understanding it is a pull back and should be understood a smaller gain and quick exit.

Nice! Tx for that “bit”!

Are you using these interchangeably?

Just finished reading! Great Thread! Nice to be back.

Looking forward to screening for fx trades and may be getting back into stocks as well indices!

KC

Today is April 22nd.

What else is it? It’s the 50th annual Earth Day - remember Earth Day??

Amidst all the news of Coronavirus, is there still room for Earth Day?

I hope so. The theme this year is Climate Action - you know, that’s the topic we were all talking about before Covid-19! How the emphasis changes!

But after Covid-19 there will still be the climate challenge…

Sure! It would be really interesting to see what you are doing and how you are mentalising your trades. I am getting quite bored with just looking at my own stuff here! :smiley:

That was indeed beautiful. Great background for dog-walking. Our own newcomer has now had her vaccinations and we are starting to go for long walks in the forests now. :slight_smile:

Interesting question!
Yes I am. I originally used the term “pips” simply because it is a unit that is familiar on a forex site. But it was mentioned at one time that in stocks and indices it is more normal to talk in points and not pips.

But that made it rather complicated because points can mean different things in different markets!

For example, here are some general definitions from Investopedia in which a point and a pip are different values:

" A point represents the smallest possible price change on the left side of a decimal point, while a tick represents the smallest possible price change on the right side of a decimal point. A pip, short for “point in percentage,” is similar to a tick in that it also represents the smallest change to the right of the decimal.

However, in my broker’s product description of SPX500, the units of pips and points are the same i.e. the first digit on the right of the decimal point:

“The pip/point location is shown below. Each 0.1 price movement on the SPX500 is 1 pip/point:”

spx500price

So I use my broker’s definition. But maybe it would be clearer to talk in pips since “points” is misleading and “ticks” are mainly futures contracts rather than cfd’s.

Nice analogy! Describes the phenomenon well! :joy:

I just want to add that I am not advocating in any way that people should just snap up small profits whenever one sees them. I have often written that in my opinion one of the most misleading clichés that is perpetually being quoted in forex circles (even by those who should know better!) is: “no one went broke by taking a profit”. This is so wrong and a totally false claim.

In fact, the opposite can often be true. It is when people snap up quick profits and cut their winners short, instead of giving them the opportunity to get to their target (that the trader themselves set in the first place) that the overall result over time deteriorates.

Trading is not about each individual trade. It is the total picture that counts. We deal in probabilities and that means we will have losses as well as gains. In order to make that work, one vital parameter is the ave size of loss v. ave size of gain. It is therefore simple mathematics that if we prune the winnings without an equivalent trimming of stops then, in the overall result, we are reducing our profits and even risking going into a loss. But if one tightens the stops then one also increases the risk of accidental stop-outs. Since stop levels should always be based on identifying the price level where, if reached, means that the original trade entry reasoning has been negated - how then can one randomly tighten stops from this original level (except as an integral part of a trading strategy such as trailing stops or locking in profits etc) ?

I cannot emphasise enough that longer term profitability is much more about managing risk and equity than where one gets into a trade and with what system. Many a good system still results in a loss when one’s focus on protecting and managing one’s equity gets left on the sideline.

It is an ironic thing, but I often think that one of the vast advantages of modern day trading is, in fact, also the biggest danger and largest cause of failed accounts!! What I am referring to is the modern platform and the speed of trade execution.

I am sure a lot of people, including me, put a fair proportion of their savings into various funds and longer term savings plans, etc. And no one watches them even daily let alone every five minutes! And even then, switching funds around is not so fast and often quite expensive. But for many people these are far more profitable in the long run than their daily trading results!

The fact that one can look at a screen whenever one wants and can act whenever one wants means that many people do exactly that! But the result can often make people trigger-happy, intuitive, spontaneous, reactive, revengeful, illogical, nervous, etc and the result is risk/management flies out the window and in its place comes irrational, unplanned reactions and a gambler’s mentality! It is often simply too easy to trade!

But not only is it too easy and fast to put on/take off trades, there is another function that is also both the benefit and the devil for traders, and that is microlots and leverage! The fact that one can take positions that do not present a serious risk of a major loss means that the threshold for entering trades is much lower - and that means we can easily jump into trades spontaneously, without a proper analysis or even against one’s own rules, even as a reaction to what we happen to see on the screen at the time (e.g. chasing price). The end result is usually a series of losses that destroys confidence (which is so necessary in a trader’s wiring) and clouds the effective evaluation of one’s trading approach.

This issue would be severely curtailed if one could only take significantly large positions that make one pause and consider seriously before triggering.

Great to see you back! :grinning: Nice to think at least somebody visits here occasionally! :smiley: even if the rambling content is of dubious value! :joy:

And another nice example of the 3 timeframes line-up and a fast 200 pips/lot trade.

Interesting to see that the market has in fact sold off after my target hit and is now back below my original entry level. So the short term trading in these volatile markets once again paid out :slight_smile: .

But it is too early to say there is a change in bias to the downside. In the triple chart below I have substituted the daily chart in place of the 4-hour and it is still kind of positive/neutral. In fact, price has only slipped back to the midpoint of last week’s range (horizontal red dashed line) and is sitting around the 1-Hour 200SMA line (red dot-dash line). This is the weakest of the 200SMA’s that I follow but it does sometimes act as an interim “pause button” in moves or a resting place in a neutral phase - which is what I am seeing now.

Neutral=no trade=read a book or even BP forum… :joy:

We were talking earlier about the early hopes for the drug Remdesivir concerning Covid-19. But according to this report from the Guardian, the first major trial suggests that it does not work:

No clear big picture today. With the 4H chart looking very neutral and directionless, it is not surprising to see slow and directionless price movements on the lower TFs too.

No trades for me today - unless we see a significant break later in the session.

We did get a three chart line-up, but the market is extremely slow. So the bite size had to match that. So I am content with a mere extra 50 pips as we match the earlier highs. It may go higher but that it outside my risk parameters with so many recent highs around this level on all three TFs. But we will see…