Well I took a Sunday afternoon stroll over there to that thread…not my thing, I’m afraid! I guess I’ve been around too long to get into any of those strange, mystical sounding indicators - they confuse me totally. And I am hopeless at charts comprising many different indicators that somehow should be building a composite, unified picture.
I am more impressed with the overall simple concept that price can only do two things: go up or go down (theoretically, it can also stand still, but that very rarely happens!). So all I want is something that tells me which way it is going (Show the flow), and then something else to tell me when it is a good idea to get out. Basically, just a few MA’s and some colours to make it pretty to look at!
And that’s it for me as far as trading goes. Why complicate “simple” if simple is working.
But I accept that we all find what works for us individually, and that is again looking through the dark glass and understanding that what is out there on the other side is different to our own thoughts and experiences.
Now that the sun starts to set over the G20 meet and Mr Trump’s steps into North Korea, we can think, what are we actually left with?
There has a been a lot of smiles and handshakes and one-on-one talks between all the key players this weekend - more than usual even for this kind of get-together. But all we actually have in the hand is a lot of promises that talks will recommence. And China, for one, reminded us that there is still a lot to do and that it is all still going to take time.
But markets thrive on speculating where we will be tomorrow rather than today and so I kind of expect that the equity markets are going to take these meetings and promises optimistically and we will see more on the upside.
But I think the oil markets are in a different position. There are still the OPEC+ meetings tomorrow and Tuesday as well as the inventories figures Tuesday and Wednesday (which have recently differed widely from the anticipated figures and therefore will be under the spotlight this week).
I think the oil markets are more relaxed now about the risk of military escalation in the Middle East and perhaps more focused on signs of weakening economies and oil demand as long as the US-China situation remains unresolved. So, depending on what the OPEC+ group decides there is a chance we might see oil prices still rise a little but then sell off below Friday’s close.
The western currencies had a neutral kind of week leading up to the G20 and it is impossible to say from a chart point of view where we might go from here. But the JPY, NZD and AUD still seemed to move nicely last week and we might find some better trades over there next week.
Being the first week of a new month, I assume we will see the US NFP release on Friday and that may keep the USD based pairs somewhat muted as Friday draws near.
I remain in the ongoing “chunky” trading mode, looking for 50-100 pip moves from entry signals on the 4H chart - but that’s just me peering through the dark glass…
But there is always the risk of the unexpected - and I doubt next week will be a bed of roses, or even lilies come to that…
And dunno if you’ve been watching my pivots thingy but I seem to be nailing them dead on a daily basis now. No idea why I couldn’t get this right years ago. Sad actually. But there it is for you. Not HUGE profits given my ultra conservative position sizing. But certainly enough to put food on the table thus far.
Anyways. Just thought I’d mention it here because at one point we’d discussed this.
Well. Two weeks, multiple trades every day, one loser, and just over 4%. That’s (sadly) better than my core trading system has done in the same two weeks I’ll tell you. Still building confidence of course but if things carry on like this I’ll for sure start being more aggressive insofar as position sizing is concerned. So we shall see. Just waiting for an answer from TradeStation on something and if it’s what I need to hear will combine pivots with ticks and, well, could be the finest I’ve come up with yet. Nice thing is that it “feels” like trading (as opposed to simply nursing positions at night and waiting days for signals to enter or exit). And for sure no interest being paid as at the moment I’m closing positions just before the close no matter what the status. That interest adds up on extended period trades I can tell you. This all being said: I’d not ditch my core system as that’s proven itself over and over these past few years. Difference being of course is that it was part time and I had other things to occupy myself with during the day and there was no urgency to make money.
Anyone who is seriously expecting a chart full of flashing indicators to
help them make money is seriously deluding themselves. Having worked
through that myself, I would urge anyone to keep indicators to a minimum,
I am now winning most of the time precisely because I have clarity of
vision and an uncluttered chart
Repainting indicators are your ‘False Friends’, invariably leading to mixed,
conflicting signals which will of course result in ‘analysis paralysis’, if that
is all you have in making your trading decisions
The multi coloured template was spoof, it was my ‘ghost of Christmas
past’ intended to remind both myself and others how easy it is to
become seduced by such garbage
It was hardly intended to be an endorsement of it!
I’m not sure everyone really gets the point that is being made
Equities markets have indeed shown a positive response to the weekend’s events, making new highs from last week on the SP500 - even though little detail has been released concerning the US-China talks. In fact, we could say that the markets are strengthening on relief that things didn’t get worse rather than that they got any better.
Mr Trump postponed the imposition of further tariffs and offered some slight relief on sanctions against Huawei. But whereas he also said that China has promised to buy additional US agricultural products, China¨s version is that Mr Trump hopes that China will do so (!?)
But there was no news about when talks might resume and the real hard core issues such as intellectual rights, technology handovers, currency manipulation, rights to impose future tariffs etc are a long way from any agreement.
New data released in the Far East showed further weakening in the economies there and that places even greater emphasis on the NFP release in the US on Friday this week.
The western currency pairs, USD, GBP and EUR are relatively unchanged and in the lower half of last week’s ranges. The Euro is still watching the power changes in the top EU jobs, whilst the GBP is still staring at the Conservative leadership battle and the forever repainting Brexit deadline. The USD is more concerned with the upbeat news on domestic economic prospects and the resultant diminishing likelihood of a 0.5% cut if Fed interest rates - maybe now only 0,25%.
But a word of WARNING here - the NFP on Friday is likely to have a greater than usual impact on markets, but prior to that the markets in the US are closed on Thursday, July 4, for Independence Day. Therefore, markets are likely to be muted on Wednesday. And since today is likely to be spent digesting the weekend’s news, that only leaves tomorrow as a “normal” trading day! So whilst we may see some erratic movements, I am not so sure we will see any great trend developments ahead of Friday’s release.
The oil markets prices, as anticipated, have only recovered the weak close from Friday and are back around the high levels of last week, but have not made any great moves higher. The OPEC (only) meeting is today and the OPEC+ (incl the Russian-led non-OPEC parties to the production cuts agreement) meets tomorrow. But there appears to be little room for any surprises here since both Russia and the OPEC main parties, Saudi Arabia and Iraq, have already confirmed that the existing agreement will be extended for another 6-9 months.
Therefore, on balance, if OPEC+ is continuing to keep a restraint on production and there is hope of a gradual return to normal global economic growth and oil demand, then there is reason to believe that prices will continue to be supported - especially if this week’s inventory data from API and EIA (Tues and Weds) confirm further drawdowns. The main cap on prices is still the record output from the US shale regions.
Iran is still a very big “unknown”. Recent data shows that oil exports from Iran have slumped as a result of the US sanctions - which are also biting in other, non-oil, areas as well. Since oil revenues form the major part of the Iranian state income, this situation is not sustainable at all. And" something" is going to break here soon. Iran has already warned that it is enriching its uranium at a far greater rate and that stocks will exceed those levels permitted under the terms of the Nuclear Accord already during this week. The remaining 5 parties to the accord have not shown signs of reaching any solutions with Iran about this, nor have these parties or the US (which pulled out of the accord) signalled what their response will be to this breach when it occurs.
My key watchtower topics this week:
Details of the resumption of US-China negotiations
Oil inventories data
US Independence Day
US NFP
Iranian breach of the Nuclear Accord terms
My apologies Manxx. I never interfere with anyone’s thread except to occasionally give commendation, this exception was prompted because I was unintentionally misrepresented on your thread,
I just don’t understand why posts belonging to, and referring to, two other specific thread topics were posted here in my thread that has nothing to do with those - especially as there are extremely few readers here!
It is not that I mind, it is just that I think generally, as a principle, comments relating to specific thread topics should be retained on those threads and not spread about since it makes it far easier for others to follow everything.
Otherwise you, and anyone else, are more than welcome to post thoughts etc here!
Bit of a lethargic day so far. Nothing very definitive in anything that I am looking at. No new signals and just drifty pullbacks on existing old signals from last week. Most things on my radar are trading within last week’s range and in most cases that range was also pretty narrow prior to the G20 weekend.
So, there were only two decisions and both seem to have been appropriate today:
take no new positions (no position is still a position)
disappear back to the countryside and enjoy the summer sunshine instead.
Näive though it is, I never grow tired of watching the sun pouring its energy into a solar panel/battery and then the fascination of tanking up my PC and mobile from canned sunshine.
Managed to open the scoreboard for July towards the close yesterday with a long on SP500 after it tested the previous Friday close.
I used a very short term strategy that i sometimes drop to if i wish to recover a stoploss or a small loss from something experimental.
I was thinking it might be useful to use this more often during this short week due to holidays and pre-NFP.
But i have a very poor internet connection for some reason this morning out here in the country so more about markets and, in particular, crude oil later today when i get home.
How are you doing with your trading? Seems like a really quiet week so far - except for oil selling off here after trying to maintain its levels. I have no idea what has been going on because I have been away at the summer cottage for 2days and my internet connection has been abysmal! I recently changed my provider and it worked great at home - but now I’ve tried it in the country and it is pitiful, the best I get there is E, H or H+ (all old 3G enhancements) so I am changing back tomorrow!
Bu although I have only just got home, I have once again proved the value and credibility of pure TA trading. The first thing was to put sauna on (of course!), then look at the charts and immediately it shouted at me buy SP500, sell oil - so I did both - without looking at any news or where we’ve been the last 2 days. Went to sauna, came out - and had closed on TP on both! Thats 100% so far this month! (a whole 3 trades! haha! )
Regarding cameras , I only use my mobile, I have no other camera. I used to struggle with this a lot until a few years back because I wanted quality photos, but I also needed spontaneity because most photos I take are just when I happen to see something - and I couldn’t carry an SLR+ equipment around with me all the time!
But then along came that famous Nokia 2010 with the 40+ megapixel camera and that changed everything! remember it?
I still have mine, but after Nokia sold off its Mobile arm to Microsoft and the inevitable demise of Windows Mobile, I swapped to Samsung Galaxy 7 - that was 3 years ago. I was very pleased with that and now I decided to move up to the Galaxy S10+ because of its three lenses, zoom, normal and wide-angle.
I am also really pleased with this device, but it has its limitations. for example, any candle flames always come out white.
But it handles daylight shots fine like this exhibit from a chainsaw sculpturing competition in the village near our cottage today:
Rather a confusing picture right now between SP500 and Crude OIl.
Oil-related factors have been positive for oil and would normally suggest higher prices:
The OPEC+ group agreed unanimously to extending the current production cuts for a further 9 months
The API inventories confirmed a further draw of 5mill barrels, which was again far more than anticipated
The monitoring team in Iran confirmed that Iran has now exceeded the permitted maximum level for enriched uranium
The G20 meetings gave several indications of reinstating negotiations that would lead to improved economic conditions
But, as has been mentioned before, there is a great grey cloud overhanging oil markets in the form of signs of significant economic slowdowns across the globe taking place now, in the present! And the latest data releases and downward adjustments in outlook are confirming this. For example, from South Korea.
Given that most of the oil news was already known and priced into the market, it is not surprising that the growth pessimism would be the overriding factor.
However, the USA does not seem to be troubled by these signs of weak growth - or at least do not see it affecting them, too. And the SP500 just goes marching on upwards.
It is precisely in these kinds of situations where TA comes into its own. When fundamental issues are mixed, or do not account for market sentiment, then the ONLY clear and factual data that one can ALWAYS rely on is PRICE !!!
Price always shows us the ever-moving balance-point between buyers and sellers, whether they be trade buyers, investors or short term speculators. All we need is a TA structure that identifies the current direction and go with it, i.e. a TA structure that will “show the flow”.
For crude oil, that already started to appear already early in the day’s session yesterday. On this hourly structure we saw a downwards crossover in the short term ribbon, followed by a close through the Daily 200-period SMA and into the lower half of last week’s range and, to confirm all that, a downward crossover through the RSI 50 line.
This all preceded an immediate 100+pip drop to the bottom of last week’s range, which also happens to currently roughly coincide with the 4H 200-period SMA. And that is where we have stalled for the time being:
Personally, I suspect we will now see little change until the EIA inventories release later today, but with the current emphasis on pessimistic growth, combined with a nervous eye on US-Iran developments, I suspect people will be cautious ahead of a US holiday which celebrates its own independence - kind of like a political target for anti-US proxy groups! combined with the NFP release on Friday.
…and, as anticipated, we have continued like that all day - just below last week’s lows and around the 4-Hour 200 SMA.
The EIA released its weekly inventories data showing a crude oil inventories draw of 1.1 mill compared with analysts’ expectations for a draw of 3 mill barrels.Gasoline stocks also fell by 1.6 mill barrels, which was again slightly less than analysts’ expectations for a draw of 2.2 mill barrels.
The oil charts remain negative and SP500 very positive. This is for Crude Oil WTI:
There is a lot of talk around concerning tariffs (EU) and sanctions (Iran) and power plays (OPEC) but I am not going into all those here. They are all talk and don’t offer any enlightenment concerning future direction.
My own view is that the overriding issue remains the bearish global weakness, and the only two major issues that could revive oil at the present are a credible change in the US-China negotiations and subversive actions against oil supply routes and/or infrastructure.
Tomorrow is the US national holiday, some markets close early today and Friday is NFP day (which could be more influential on oil markets than usual, being a measure of economic growth, but it is only the US market and oil is concerned with the global situation)
The divergence between SP500 and oil continued yesterday with the S&P reaching new highs around the 3000 mark and closing just below. This, in spite of widespread doom and gloom stories for global trade growth. Whether this was partly driven by nationalistic euphoria and/or the intense magnetic draw of a powerful psycho-level presented by the 3000 mark, remains to be seen,
On the other hand, oil markets remained weak in spite of the fall in inventories this week and increased unrest and outage threats in Libya and the continuing production cuts from the OPEC+ nations. WTI only managed a small improvement on the day, which probably reflected short covering before the US holidays rather than any bullish sentiment.
Both these situations further underline the futility of retail traders basing their trading decisions entirely on market commentaries and speculations. The only reliable indicator of what markets are actually doing, and where the money is actually moving from and to, is the market price itself.
But that is not to say that it is wrong to take an interest in one’s markets and what is going on in the world. Indeed, by understanding what are the key motivating factors impinging on markets, one can gain a better feel for the strength of a trend and what events are most likely to affect sentiment at any given time.
For example, it is clear that the oil markets are not currently so concerned about inventories reductions or geo-political risk on the supply side but are very tuned into any evidence of reducing oil demand as a result of slowing economic growth around the globe. When the charts and the news stories are in synch then there is a good chance of a positive bias in the direction of one’s trades based on the chart reading.
Pretty much as expected, oil and SP500 are very quiet and with little change on the day (at least so far).
I was reading an interesting article about Bitcoin.
The University of Cambridge has developed a tool for monitoring and comparing energy usage.
One of their discoveries is apparently that the mining, storing, processing and usage of Bitcoin uses, over the course of a year, more energy than Switzerland…
Just one of those “did you know…” things on a hot sunny day:
PRICE 
