Just been reading that British Royal Marines have seized an oil tanker in Gibraltar that was apparently taking crude oil from Iran to Syria against sanctions (although it is claimed that the oil originates from Iraq).
However, it was the destination refinery that falls under EU sanctions - not specifically US sanctions against Iran.
BBC News said that “a source” told them that the US had asked Britain to do this. No reason offered
As usual with these types of situations, we only see it through the glass darkly and will never know the real events behind the scenes.
But it seems that this supertanker has been monitored since it loaded back in April and then took the long route around the African cape and up to the Mediterranean via the Gibraltar straits instead of the usual, much shorter, route through the Suez canal (albeit probably in smaller ships - this is a difficult route for a supertanker).
It maybe that the destination (under EU sanctions) was more provable that the suspected Iranian source of the oil itself (under US sanctions), and that resolved who and where the ship would be apprehended.
But I think the key point is that sanctions should be enforced. If authorities, whether it is the US, UK, EU, UN etc, impose sanctions but are not prepared to show their teeth and enforce them, then they are a meaningless preoccupation which often harms innocent third parties more than the targetted party!
As far as I can determine, it was well-handled and is now at the diplomatic level. How this situation works out from the Iranian perspective remains to be seen…but the oil markets seem unconcerned about it.
Today sees the release of this month’s NFP data. The NFP is compiled and released by the US Dept of Labor.
We accept the independence and integrity of such processes without (much) question.
But that also used to be the case with the Federal Reserve. But the present administration is not averse to criticising its actions and even commenting on the President’s ability to sack the Chairman if he felt like it.
We are already accustomed to a process where the concept of “Truth” is changing from an absolute and objective value of what actually “is” to a conditioned and subjective value of what "it should be and therefore is".
Is it therefore possible that at some stage the calculation of releases like the NFP will be amended to include a corrective “T” factor? Where"T" is an index applied to the final result derived from the traditional calculation method to “correct” it from what “is” to what “should be and therefore is”.
In other words, start the process from the other end. Decide what the outcome should be, then apply the appropriate “T” factor value so that the reversed formula produces the value of the input data.
An additional enhancement of such a “T” factor would also include the conversion of the output to an absolute value (ABS)which removes any “incorrect” preceding minus.
I do not seriously consider that such a process is in existence, but the temptation must be there, and the divide between fact and fiction is ever more vague and seen through an ever more dark glass…
If the markets ever come to doubt the independence, accuracy and integrity of such data, where will be? 
Seems oil markets are just about the sleepiest markets today.
Looking back on the week, we have had a number of issues that should have pushed prices higher:
The OPEC+ group extended its deal on supply cuts for up to 9 months.
The API and EIA both reported draws in crude oil inventories
Tensions in the Middle East: Iran states it is exceeding permitted levels of enriched uranium, the UK seizes an Iranian oil supertanker in Gibraltar suspected of carrying Iranian oil to Syria, and then today Iran threatens to capture a British ship in retaliation.
But the oil markets just shrug it all off…are we going down? There are signs in many places of overall global trade weakness and a relentless increase in US oil production that neutralises the impact from the OPEC cuts.
A hint should appear in how we close the week tonight…
In a way I am glad that I moved the oil thread to this more general, thread!
The reason? Well, I am finding that I am talking oil but actually mainly trading the SP500 - and loving it!
Today was a great example, sold it after the NFP but not for so very much as I didn’t really feel too positive about the downside and I couldn’t believe this market was just going to grease that great 3000 level and then just simply drop again without some other go at it!
And after the short came a turn that just felt so positive that it was a clear buy with a stop below the low so far. And up it went - so sweet!
So I am going to drop the oil commentary. Afterall, it is only me who reads it! and if I am not trading it so much then that is rather pointless!
Actually, the SP500 has been a brilliant contract all year so far for me. And one of the most positive features is that it moves and one gets more bang on the buck per position. It also trades so well technically, observing important levels well. I confess I am hooked on it.
In spite of the quiet week, it has been a good start to the month (thanks mainly to the SP500. ) 9 trades, 8 gains, 1 loss.
Happy weekend to anyone who might be reading here! 
Mannxx, I find that it is perfectly ok to switch from one market to another. If you prefer trading SP500 and you are able to generate more profits there then I think that you should focus on this market. Oil is eventually highly controlled market by OPEC & Co, so not quite easy to make profits there
I am not so sure that is the case any more. If it were, then it would be a lot easier to trade - but then oil would already be a lot higher than where it is. For example, Saudi Arabia wants it closer to $85 a barrel to meet their budget needs.
But oil is severely dampened by weakening demand from slowing economic growth on a global scale - as a result of Mr Trump’s various sanctions and tariffs, esp with China. As well as the record production levels in US shale oil pumping into the market.
So we are trapped in a tunnel where there is still an over supply of oil which OPEC+ is trying desperately to reduce but any reduction is being offset by increased shale and lower demand. So it is getting a bit stale and there are not such good moves at present - and there are greener pastures elsewhere! 
Thank you for that vote 
I shall be doing just that. I am thinking about maybe throwing in some forex trades that I spot from time to time. Today’s would have been a sell on EU, but I didn’t think there would be enough in it to mention - and it ended up only yielding 20 pips anyway, but that is OK I guess
I have been trying to short SP500 today but every time it has started dropping it has sprung straight back up again - I’ll probably end up with a loss on that one today if it climbs from here very far…
Everyone is moaning because the weather has turned real cold for this time of year. Many people traditionally take their summer holiday directly after midsummer, end June/early July. In a land where the summer is quite short, the weather is a critical factor.
But then, I was reading this morning about the garbage situation in Rome where rubbish lies in the streets, uncollected, rotting and smelling, in the overpowering heat with temperatures in the upper 30’s.
How the grass is always greener on the other side of the road…
Well, still in here on the short side having survived the little uptick late yesterday.
I am looking to exit around the low of last week around 2950 and with the stop now at B/E (which I still expect to get hit first - shows how unsure I feel with the short side in this particular market - having only recently been breaking new record highs…but that is what the TA says in the short term (4-hour), the daily picture is, of course, still upwards! )
Well, SP500 went up yesterday as suspected. Just managed to scramble out of my short with a few pips ahead of my B/E stop. Went long instead hit TP overnight. It has now dropped back to a neutral position and I have nothing to say here.
Which is just as well, because since I am only trading SP500 on my technical charting, there is nothing to say anyway - since it is of absolutely no interest, and even less use, to anyone else.
Seems the rest of this BP forum is settling into some sort of summer/winter doldrums. There is little content of any interest or depth and new threads are set up by Newbies that don’t even bother to follow-up on answers, and the start of a pathetic war zone between a few adversaries, something to do with big mouths being shut up.
So I am packing up shop here and taking a summer break to enjoy life and sunshine and family and some lovely visitors. So, apart from PMs, will probably be back in the autumn. In the meantime, good trading and good times to all…
No. Some of us do read all on BOTH of your threads. But to be blunt: you made it a little uncomfortable for people to post on your threads is all. But rest assured: your posts are read and appreciated. And given that you’re now trading the S&P I’d love to be discussing with you all of my new toys and those pivots. Just not here is all. And I do sort of hope that you look at what I’m doing when I’m posting on that thread. Because I can tell you that to date: I cannot put a foot wrong with those things. And matter of fact: I’ve cut down on my shotgun approach to trading every Index known to man (with pivots anyway) so I now concentrate solely on the Dow, S&P, NASDAQ, and DAX (and of late only the Dow and S&P for intraday trading and which is paying off daily much to my surprise).
Just for the record, Dale, that is grossly unfair and untrue. I always welcome people to post on my threads. What I do not like is when people come and just chat about their own things in a string of posts that totally disrupts the continuity and are totally unrelated to my thread. That is all.
It was also you who trashed the whole purpose and substance of my oil thread by saying:
[quote=“dpaterso, post:960, topic:83773”]
This is why I bang on (mainly to new traders) about not even bothering with fundamentals. Just scroll back on your own thread to see what I mean. [/quote]
So, you see, there is nothing left. But I hope your trading and your other deals work out over the next few months. Maybe we will have more in common in the autumn/spring.
Happy (pip/tick/point) hunting
That point was in no way directed at you or anything posted by you. I was merely stating my point of view based on the fact that I’ve not made a single cent ever on a trade initiated because of my understanding or interpretation of fundamental analysis. And I’ve been at this a while so my point was how is some new trader still wet behind the ears going to be able to grasp all of this after a cursory read through some online school material or articles on the Internet.
Anyway. Now I understand why you got so upset.
Sincere apologies.
I had always felt open to post @anon46773462 s threads. I recall a very well deserved 
and polite redirection when I had wandered waaaay of topic in the Oil thread! 
I am forex only and would read for educational purposes! @anon46773462 - you are “top shelf”.
If you are taking a BPV - babypips vacation - (would prefer that you don’t)… BUT… if you do, I hope and would look forward to your return in the fall!
KC
Summer came and summer has almost gone (here, anyway). Visitors and friends came and have also almost gone. It s been hot and dry and the leaves are tinged with yellow - from the dryness or maybe even the first hints of autumn.
Now its time to get back to work for the autumn season. SP500 has been a dream instrument this week - probably mainly due to not looking at it constantly and just placing the set-and-forget for the day and checking in later in the evenings. Must look at this more as from Monday.
It really does work wonders to take a break now and again from trading and the related stuff. There are much more important things in life to keep up with.
Summer came…
That’s spectacular! It is hard to believe pushing the middle of August. my daughter leaves on the 22nd for saint Louis University, my son leaves on the 26th for the local State University.
Last weekend was spent on a lake in Vermont with friends of ours was wonderful
Everything is still green here and leafed out for a little privacy in our backyard.
I’ve been on the job hunt! Hopefully we’ll secure something by end of September.
Great to hear from you looking forward to more of @anon46773462!!
KC
I bet it was! 
We’ve also spent a lot of time on the water this summer. But it does tend to increase the amount of:
Wishing you good luck for that. Are you looking for anything specific?
Yes, we are starting the change from late summer to early autumn. The insects still find some flowers to admire but the berry-picking season is well underway and the rowan ash berries are already decorating the shoreline:
What a tranquil photo. 
Yesterday, Monday, the SP500 was again a good provider of a good start to a new week. The early hours in the Far East were flat but then London dropped conclusively straight through the 1-hour 200SMA, which we had been failing at during the latter part of last week as the previous up move fizzled out.
Selling at the end of this candle also reflected a change in the short term MA band and a cross on the RSI - and the follow-through was immediate.
In fact this morning has also provided a further extension on the downside for a quick 70 pips start on the day.
Whilst the US economy still stands as a strong market with full employment, there are widespread signs of weakness and related problems around the world which are hitting confidence in stock markets and causing a transfer into more traditional save-havens like US bonds, gold, JPY and CHF.
Problems and unrest in areas such as Hong Kong and south American countries like Venezuela and now Argentina and adding to an already negative backcloth of trade wars and Brexit.
I am still looking to sell into strength.
Now this is a good example of what I mean by discretionary trading. Having gone short again and watched the initial price “jiggling”, it just didn’t feel right, it was not reacting as it should - so I closed it and wait an hour…
…and there it was, the spurt on the upside. Having avoided another stop out, I will now wait to see how this settles before another decision…
