Time for long USD/CAD now

This is it…

The market is handing you the money here.

I am long my largest position size ever (by far) here at 1.0693.

Look at the chart make you own call. At least good through 1.0760 - maybe 1.09

yes it would seem that way. however, i wouldn’t discount the possibility of another drop of 100 pips max before the uptrend re-establishes itself.

betting against the trend as strong as this one is a hard game but i have to say i’m with you. News just seems to get better and better about the cad economy but i would say there can be very few buyers of cad left so it’s due a retrace. I went long audcad yesterday the two tend to be correlated so all i’m really looking for is the retrace in cad and aud to become bid again. Already 50 pips in the money just hope it keeps going that way.
good luck guys!!!

At the moment, I would not fade this trend. The name of the game in the market right now is interest rate differential expectations. BOC is expected to raise rates while the best the Fed can do is hold rates. Traders are looking to ride this baby down.

USDCAD remains in a well-defined descending channel. Much better than expected fundamentals in Canada have forced the central bank to adopt a rather hawkish tone during this past Tuesday�s interest rate meeting. I look for this bearish momentum to continue. Strength in commodities and improvement in Canada�s employment provide bullish support for the loonie in weeks to come.

Don’t tell me you are make this decision based on a Noob mindset?

‘It has gone down so much its about time it turns around’

If so you are an idiot.

Current location: Blowing up my account like a noob…

Man that is funny the second Is aw your post I knew how it would end.

Trends do not die because they have moved too much. Nothing supported a long, no candles, no lines and from what I see no indicators. Price action and momentum were totally against you no idea why you went long.

I have been short since March and just hit the 1000 pip mark I got a 150 pip trailing so the least I can make is 850 pips on 10 lots and 550 on the other 10 lots. I am taking the rest of the year off after this one.

I need to pull out that old movie (Canadian Bacon) and dream of a war with Canada.

Well the only good news is that Zeller’s department store owes me around $100,000 in canadian dollars that is payable July 25th. I guess I have a natural hedge built in here… at least for some of the losses… lol

Well, it’s only money. I still think we are close to a bottom here - but I’ve been thinking that since 109.50…:eek:

One more buy down here… Just like the gambler at 4am at the table pushing it all in one more time… I honestly don’t expect this buy to work…

Well, at least this will make a good story for kids some day (on why they have to go to the community college).

Oh yeah, nice trade on your short position by the way. That was a good one.

Looks like if GBP/JPY goes up much further it will be good for a long. The market tends to lose its affinity to the dollar after NFP so I expect some nice moves next week on GBP/JPY and if that happens USD/CAD will probably drop more. Man you cant guess bottoms like you said its a gamble for all we know it could drop down to 90cents. That is unlikely but not impossible…

Yep this noobie here lost 15 pips on some false noise signals on the 30 min chart on this pair. Man this is a strong trend. On another site , someone posted a nice chart over 7 or so years that showed other strong trends of this pair, same direction


what make you so confident? i can see ucad keep making new resistant… correct me if i’m wrong… :wink:

Always wait for a wait for a confirmation before doubting the trend, dont forget the old saying the trend is your friend!

If your going to take a position against it, you had better be dam sure!

Take a look at the daily charts and the weekly, i’m not saying i disagree with you, it may well retrace, but right now theres little to suggest it.

I have been on an other site which gives traders a thought on strategy when trading USD/CAD and right now they have no strategy, because this pair is going against all they usually know. An example is when the BOC mentioned that they would not be increasing the interest rates the USD dropped 100+ pips where as it should have worked in reverse and the USD should have probably gone up 100+ pips.

IMO I think since the Canadian economy is still in an upswing and the US debt is still climbing higher and higher everyday is just one reason the the USD/CAD is still falling along with Canada’s commodity prices increasing helping out the CAD as well. Just my thoughts.

Although the rate decision was not to move the comments that came along side that were quite hawkish. The BoC has also come out quite publicly and said that it perceives the stronger Cad as a reflection of the strong economy and that it has no problem with that.
My long AUDCAD position is back to breakeven but I still think Cad can have a large retrace although I�m not confident enough to do this against USD especially the way it has smashed through resistance that I thought would be quite tough. Conversely, normally you find just as more and more people are talking how it can only go one way it tends to go the other.

Point of interest did anyone know that CADs oil reserves are actually larger than the Saudis? Not quite as clear cut as that as it costs a fortune to extract but still something new I learned the other day!

Want to know where the CAD is going? Look at the price of oil. For the most part, there has been a strong correlation :slight_smile:

CIBC economists estimating a par till the end of the year.
other major canadian economists are throwing numbers around high 90s for the loonie until the end of the year.

not sure what actino to take, but i wouldn’t go long just now, theres still room for the loonie.

Well, We’ve just gone 24 hours without anymore downside progress. Seems fairly supported (for now) at 1.0580 ish. Acutally just had the biggest upside 15 minute candle in 24 hours.

We’ll see how NY reacts and look for a gameplan.

Keep in mind that USD/CAD has has mini retracements more than once durign this massive downtrend and it has found support countless times for a few days. This does not mean much right now.

Oh and tazmet of course Canada is correlated with petrol prices it is one of the biggest crude oil producers in the world after the Arab countries. The CAD and the JPY are both heavily correlated with oil prices JPY with an opposite correlation. That is why the best pair to trades based on oil prices is CAD/JPY.

Yes my point earlier wasn�t that CAD is correlated to Oil�… I thought that was given?

To my mind Saudi is by far and away the biggest oil producer (some say the central bank of oil). So learning that Canada actually has larger reserves than the Saudi is quite remarkable!!! As I said earlier it is not quite that simple but still a fact to take note of.