Time to get flat in Shares?

A week or two back on here - I said that it was probably a goodish time to short Indices - Maybe now it’s time to cover 50% or even take full profits ?

PS - I’m usually “Early” :wink: :rofl:

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I think you’re probably early yet.

Government advice is no social gatherings, the amount of businesses that this is going to kill is scary. I don’t know how long they’re projecting it lasting for, but they already said months not weeks. People aren’t going to be working, so there’s no money to spend, recovery takes longer. It could be worse than 2008.

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Hope all will be all right soon.

After your reply, I went and had a look at the long term DOW Chart ;

Some interesting things here (for me at any rate )

Firstly we see “Black Monday” in 1987 where for no particular reason as I remember, the Indices plunged by around a third before halting and gradually returning - That if memory serves was when the “mythical” PPT was put in place and certain rules like the “uptick rule” and procedures to close the markets “for refection” to prevent massive single day drops. I was not trading at that time but a mate of mine was in shares and cried on my shoulder !

Then we look at the “Dotcom Bubble” of teh late 90’s running into the early 2000’s when the fantasy of the “Dot-coms” were so overvalued that they just HAD to unwind - again a top of a tad under 12,000 dropped by around a third to around 7250 ? Again if memory serves although then I was in the markets - starting as a member of a “Share club” and later in Spread-betting the DOW (Futures) - I was a member of a Forum a bit like this one but with a lot less members - and they we all in there most days - chatting in real time about waht was going on. Me sitting there with Bloomberg TV on full time with that dreadful (I now know) emotive music and the commentators all big smiles and happy voices at every up day and stressed voices and frowns on every Down Day.

Anyway I digress - I could go on for several pages - lol but the upshot was I was so frustrated with being stopped out I took the downbet in 2003 withot a stop and that turned out to be 3 HOURS before it “Turned” - but I wasn’t going to be stopped out “this time” 'cos I KNEW it was going down - WE reckonned to somewhere in the 2-3000 range - if not even lower !

During this time I discovered the VIX and the Fed’s interference by way of the "Repo"s

So when I finally gave it up I decided to have a break and took my partner away on Holiday - 18 nights In Dominican Republic All Inclusive - and flying from the uk - that entire holiday cost me LESS than I lost on that Single bet !

However the retracement again was around a 38% perhaps ? - That bet would eventually have “broken Even” and even gone slightly into profit in 2008 - but would have cost me everything I owned including the house to cover “margin calls” !

In the Bank fraud debacle of 2008 - we had the probem revealed to us in tiny snippets and teh market went down a little at a time until the ful scale became apparent and Governements around teh world “Baled out” the Banks’ disgraceful behaviour by committing US to a decade of poverty whilst they themselves and their mates in the banks lived it up as though nothing had happened. Meanwhile the DOW did a 50% retracement so - quite a big one !

Now all the “EU” Governments are proposing to run huge budget deficits decided by their own puppet Governments and closing their borders - as indeed seems to be the case in USA, Australia etc. and we note that the DOW has dropped already by around the same amount as “Normal” in “Crisis” situations ie by around 1/3 - so whether it will get to the 50% at around 15,000 - somehow I doubt.

Now having “Fallen off a cliff” in a very short space of time, and with the Reassurance of “Government backing” to remain alive - again no doubt at OUR expense when the detail is revealed, I don’t think the effect will be as catastrophic as some fear.

I have to say that having traded the DOW during that 2000 - 2003 period - although it felt very comfortable (and profitable) at the beginning with large moves (on the daily charts) and being able to Range trade it, Looking back at that Monthly chart, the first half looks just like Wyckoff’s Disribution phase , with it’s large range before the first drop, (9/11 ?) retest and second drop to form the double bottom, during which the REPOs were very active and the interventions of the PPT ?

Now we are aware that the DOW has been pushed ever higher and higher by the REPOs and Interventions both verbal and the consttandt reports of “reaching New Record Levels” we have been hearing for the last several years seem reminiscet of perhaps even the 1929 situation and the BITCOIN situation before the spectacular devaluations of both !

If you take a look at the last 5 years we can see nearly 2 years of accumulation with a couple of minor false breakouts to the downside then a steady period of rising prices followed by wwhat appears to be a period of volatile distribution immediately prior to the sudden drop we have just seen. My point is that we have known that the Indices waere all way too high for years now and needed to drop.

On ZeroHedge they call this “virus” ting “The Face Save virus” - as ir gave them a perfect opportunity to instigate the drop on the “News”

My own opinion is that we shall shortly see a sideways movement - probably until Pres Trump gets re-elected

DON’T TRADE THis - it is my OPINION ! I am no expert :rofl:

2008 was slow because the American banks lied so much about what they’d done so they could try and sell as much of the liabilities as possible. What’s happening now is potentially worse because almost every major economy is shutting down and placing social restrictions that are going to drop a huge amount of businesses to virtually zero income. I’m struggling to think of a single industry, other than medical, that isn’t going to be hugely impacted by this. I hope I’m wrong and it recovers soon, but I don’t see this virus having played out before the summer.

I got the impression that the DOW was over-inflated anyway on optimism and there’s definitely none of that now.

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Unfortunately I hope so, I need to add to my stocks and shares isa.

Look at that long tail ! - 1000 pip recovery on the DOW today ! = 5%
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What an Enormous amount of money the “Robber Barons” have earned !

Be healthy - keep safe :smiley:

DON’T take any risks ! :wink:

[Edit - IRONIC Advice - Look the word up :heart_eyes: ]

this situation is crazy, let’s wait for it to be solved sooner than thought