Time to go Long on USD/CAD?

Last night I sat up thinking about the USD/CAD, and came up with this analysis. I’m still learning, so please tell me your opinions :).

Firstly, I looked at the stochastics oscillator and found this:

I then felt I needed more confirmation and decided to look at the price of oil. As we know, oil and USD/CAD have a negative corelation.

and here’s a daily chart

If my weekly wave count is correct, we should be seeing wave 5 moving down. If my daily count is correct, we should at least see some kind of correction. Regardless of which one is right, Oil should be moving down, it’s just a question of how much. The combination of a potential down-move in oil, and the divergence between price and stochastics in USDCAD, tells me it’s time to go long on USDCAD sometime next week.

Furthermore, on the weekly chart for USDCAD, we can see it is sitting right at a support/resistance zone.

With all this being said, I will wait for some kind of confirmation. I’m considering using a break below 1.24575 as my invalidation point. Still thinking about take profit levels.

Opinions? is this a good analysis? I’m pretty new to this stuff, so I’m still learning :slight_smile:

My understanding could be wrong but if oil and USDCAD are negatively correlated then the pair should continue to go down since oil is going up.

I think yes im long position ready to bounce . Maybe!?

Wall Street needs and wants oil at $50, they will cut rig counts and whatever other tactics to get it there. As that happens USD/CAD will continue to fall. It’s not simple, there are a lot of players with different motives. USD/CAD goes up, oil is pushed down. USD/CAD goes down, oil goes up. This does not always happen though.

Wall street what
From what i see usdcad falls around another 70 pip and then must pull back up if not will dive deeper

Oil suddenly tumbles

Us crude oil

Second bullish daily candle for usd even after nfp , the only question is how long?

Yeah, the question is how long? I think it will eventually drop to 1.2 and will stay there for couple of months

[QUOTE=“disthedat;764232”]Yeah, the question is how long? I think it will eventually drop to 1.2 and will stay there for couple of months[/QUOTE]
I see the weaknesses in usd because of resistance of previous high , but i still let go to run higher

Depends on the oil really, but Yeah it might go up tmrw, cause the fire in Alberta. But eventually comes down as Canada is enjoying it and has already prepared for it. The minimum wage was raised from 12 to somewhere around 13 per hour. Also there is a budget deficit, it all somehow shows canada is getting ready for a full year low USD/CAD, in any case though, this is all speculation.

I stick with my prediction (it’s a monthly prediction) so I don’t know if it goes down or up in the coming days really. I expect it to lower though tomorrow.

given lower CAD the country can now export more non oil stuff, so it wouldn’t be worried about OIL too much.

is it usd pullback guys?