Since I’ve started this tiresome thread of talking to myself and since there is a notion of risk and since it is the start of a new week up ahead - where does risk lie right now.
Always on a weekend news is paramount, news as in the media and not numbers - so Sat /Sun just read the mainstream media - if it’s bad then the market will happily offer prices to the downside for most of us guys.
Then comes Tuesday - the day of reckoning or turnaround Tuesday as they call it.
In the absence of bad news is there anything that can indicate likely direction of risk on Monday?
That’s a great question. Many forex trading sites and communities have economic calendars. MyFxBook.com is a great place to find out high, medium and low impact news
News comes in many forms, it’s value is that it causes a person to think ahead.
For example retail investors took a beating this past week on oil - more specifically on USO.
For learners - if you happened to want to invest in oil, you took a view that oil is now at bargain prices and well I want to get in at the bottom.
I walk into my advisory broker - I don’t want barrels of oil in the back garden but i do want some action. He will suggest that the simple and most often used route is an ETF (exchange traded fund) - long story short you buy shares in the fund which itself is invested in the futures oil market.
By far the largest is USO with avg vol at 128m , nearest rival around 8m
News would have told these investors 2 things before they parted with their money - first that demand for oil is plummeting and secondly that things USO were not rosy.
Read this back on April 13th - the retail interest was perked by the nonsense that OPEC were going to effect higher prices.
Yes there is - there was no bad news over the weekend - the Japanese stock market reacted positively during the Asian session whilst we were all fast asleep - consequently the US10yr (price) dropped during that session.
Earnings will be down - it’s how the S&P reacts - the Monday buying just because it was Monday :(-
Ah well likely some selling up ahead - reasonable buying U10yr in anticipation - tech sector a seller today in S&P - hence the nas100 selling - know what the winning sector was today?
Energy - I kid you not (although shallow) - oh and the biggest loser - healthcare, followed by communications.
Anyways nothing bright except US2000, but even that is weakening.
Edit: as always the market focus is the future - beyond the virus - the news re Pfizer today for example will brighten the mood - so short term numbers are not the be all and end all.
Good news on MFST and tiny miss on FB plus positive news today on virus:
Dr Anthony Fauci who runs the NIAID said: “The data shows remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery.”
NIAID - US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
So good news all round - yes there’s a way to go yet but we will make it.
Edit: closing that sell right now - possible some buying - will check why the 10yr selling at this minute.
Edit to the edit - sell closed - no reasonable explanation for the sudden 10yr selling - spx500 has had no reaction at 2998 - but if in doubt always get out.
Ok it’s the end of the week, and yes there has been some selling - now the question is was it as bad as 3 or 4% - haven’t done the math yet but i’d say not that bad.
There’s another thing - just how ‘bad’ has the week been?
Check Monday open and tonight’s close for the answer to that.
So we are full circle and good for someone in the market to have a think ahead…
BTW Turnaround Tuesday was somewhat delayed to Thursday after all the good news got absorbed - if i were a gambler then I’d put on my buying cap - but let’s get the weekend over first.
Oh - if it happens that by some chance a mod is reading then there is a tiny problem with one of the ad sites according to McAfee - just thought I’d mention, can put new visitors off sometimes - is not really a biggie.
Put this here because tiresome discourse wouldn’t allow.
Further update over the weekend.
UK to publish their standpoint re the negotiations - only the EU Commission have sight of this so far - has been withheld from the EU27.
From UK perspective there is hope that publication may cause some division in the 27.
Good chance for failure - same was tried in the previous UK administration, problem is that the 27 see Brexit as us vs them.
There may be some advice that the virus threat is causing disharmony within the 27 - that too is a misconception - if you ever encounter a debate in Italy about football you would conclude that a major row is about to erupt, arm waving, raised voices and gestures - always ends in sitting around a table with some fresh coffee.
