Missed Opportunities
Woke up late this morning, the heat in the UK making it a struggle to sleep at the moment so I ended up going to bed late and up late. Not good, always want to be at the charts before 7am.
But I thought I would document these two opportunities that formed because it is something I want to be looking for in the set ups consistently.
Two set ups formed one on GBPUSD and one on EURUSD, I would have only taken one opportunity for risk although I could have split my risk in half and traded both markets.
First Opp: GBPUSD
As you can see at 7.15am the price formed a lower low on the 15min at VWAP and the RSI made a higher low. Looking at the 5min Heikin Ashi chart we can see the same. (been playing around with range charts, renko and heikin ashi to see if it gives cleaner set ups).
Second Opp: EURUSD
Same goes for this one except the price was more towards the -2SD of the VWAP.
EURUSD Short +25 Pips
Bias: The bias for today was to be long today but I missed the trade this morning (see previous post). The price has hit an area of resistance on the 4hr chart so I wanted to see the reaction around this area.
Confluence: The 4hr resistance and the +2SD combined with RSI divergence on the 15 minute chart, was the confluence for this position.
Trade: Traded short after the Heikin Ashi candle formed a couple of bearish candles.
Target: Targets were the 0.25 SD on the VWAP which had been respected earlier. Close the position for +25 pips.
S&P500 Breakeven Positions
Bias: The Bias for the S&P500 is short from the higher time frames, the price came into the range highs on the 4hr and I was looking for a reversal.
Confluence: 4hr Chart resistance, +2SD on VWAP, 15 minute RSI divergence.
Targets: VWAP, but I closed both trades for breakeven, in hindsight I should have left these positions open as I had all the confluences but I though my entries were a bit sloppy and wasn’t comfortable in the position despite the 3 confluences for the trade.
Observations: I should of waited for a better entry to begin with, instead I got involved out of fear of missing the move, instead this led me to sitting in drawdown for some time. The price has now moved and is on the way to targets. Need to take advantage of these and not be fearful when having all confluences.
GBPUSD Trades: 19th & 20th July - +40 pips in total.
Where to start! I am currently on holiday in Devon so I apologise for the poor chart analysis.
I have traded GBPUSD this week so far, no setups on the other markets I watch at this moment.
Bias: My bias has been long for the past couple of days due to the reversal forming on the USD Index. However, that being said I have taken opportunities against the direction as the strategy rules set up.
Trades 19th July: Yesterday the market rallied higher without me, so I set alerts when the price formed new highs, this way I can identify divergence setups. Initially, the price gave me a setup, then I got spiked out, I felt the direction was right and we were at the 4 pm London close. This can often see price reverse on GBPUSD. I entered another short position as all the confluences remained. Was a positive day because in the second entry I had a tighter stop allowing a higher reward-to-risk ratio.
Trades 20th July: This morning I saw that price had traded higher overnight, this can often lead to a reversal forming. I entered a short position as we had RSI divergence, +2SD VWAP resistance, and VAH rejection. I got stopped on spread here as the broker spread widened on high-impact GBP data. That is something to consider in the future. I entered again shortly after that as confluences remained.
I then went long twice, the price formed a bullish RSI divergence at the -2SD VWAP band and Value Area Low. This allowed me to take a long position, but because I am trading from my phone I entered a position a bit early by accident. Waited for a pullback and got in again. These two trades reached the previous highs which were targets.
Back from holiday!
S&P500 Shorts
The S&P500 is starting to become my favourite thing to trade, it seems to take to the strategy really well.
Bias: The bias for the stock market was short after Fridays bearish close. When applying the volume profile I noticed the PoC was higher offering an area to short from if the price got close.
Trade: Got short multiple times here. all low risk building a position. All the entries ended up being around the same place, I also added one a bit later on but closed that pretty quick because we approached the US open. The price was near the PoC and was rejecting the +3 SD VWAP.
Closed: took profits on the first two positions at 1:1 and then left one open to run the full targets however, as we got to the US open I closed out. The target was the dotted line on the MTV screen and VWAP.
EURUSD Shorts
This trade required a lot of patience!
Bias: The bias for EURUSD was long today, however, the price rallied early into the European session due to some Euro data, so I was looking to see if later in the day a retracement could form back to VWAP.
Trade: The price rejected the area of interest and I got in where I thought the price would turn instead of waiting for my key area to be tested. This was the only disappointing thing about this trade, because the other entry was close to the zone.
Target: closed the trades around VWAP, I was going to let the other trade run but I was happy with the profits for today.
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RED MORNING: -10PIPS
Overview:
I have taken a couple positions already, a GBPUSD long and EURUSD Long.
+20 Pips on GBPUSD, -30 pips on EURUSD.
I don’t normally take two correlating markets I have only been taking one, which I should have done today but maybe some over confidence led me to taking two as performance has been good.
First Trade: GBPUSD
Bias: Bias is long at the moment, we auctioned off overnight in the Asia session which made me think we could move higher in the European session.
Trade: The price retested the -2SD and the open price and bounced on the 5 min chart. We also had divergence on the 15min chart. I went long on the retest with targets being the VWAP.
Closed: Took profits at the VWAP for +20 pips, it was a good job I did too as the price then moved lower. VWAP was pointing down so the move lower was more likely.
Second Trade: EURUSD Long Twice
Bias: Bias was long the same as GBPUSD.
Trade: the first trade entry wasn’t the best but I did keep the risk very low on that one as we were close to the VWAP already. The second entry was more of what I like to do, wait for a push away a pullback to where buyers stepped in, and buy in the same area.
Closed: Closed both trades as the price was close to SL and looked like it would sweep the lows. -30 pips in total on EURUSD.
Conclusion: I should have taken on trade at a time, this helps manage risk and helps with watching the price action.
S&P500 Shorts: Back in the blue!
I said yesterday the S&P500 is becoming my favourite to watch, especially pre US markets. We can get some decent moves in line with the strategy.
Bias: Bias was for a range day. The market was trading between the VWAP zones and I was looking for a rejection of the highs.
Trade: the trade formed when we had a retest of the highs with RSI divergence and +2 and 3 SD bands. The 5 min formed a lower high after retesting the area where sellers entered the market. Shorted multiple times because I forgot I had lowered the risk for the other trades previously. Rookie mistake!
Targets: the range lows and the -2SD VWAP bands.
importance of building good habits:
stopped committing to journaling my trades because I was busy. I should make time even if it is on the evening where I am watching TV upload my trades so I can learn from the winners and the losers.
Update on trades, still doing ok, had a minor blip, went from trading the strategy to guesswork and it backfired on me. However, once I recognised this I stopped trading for a few days and came back to the charts. Using the strategy I recovered the losses from the blip so back on track.
