Forex outlook for 10 September 2014 on EUR/USD:
After reading 50+ news articles today, my conclusion is that EUR/USD is bearish at least until $ 1.2892 is 58 pips !
Recap of the most important news articles as of 10 September 2014:
*2
9 september 2014: ECB announced fresh stimulus measures in an attempt to shore up slowing growth and inflation in the region.
The ECB cut its forecast for growth this year to 0.9% down from 1.0% previously and cut the forecast for 2015 to 1.6% from 1.7%. The bank also lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 0.6% from 0.7% in June.
The Federal Reserve will be forced to raise rates sooner to prevent the economy from overheating.
The Fed is expected to wind up its asset purchase program in October and to start raising interest rates sometime in mid-2015. In contrast, the European and Japanese central banks look likely to stick to a looser monetary policy stance.
*3
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has said that slackness persists in the labor market despite an improving economy, which softened demand for the greenback.
The European monetary authority will also begin an asset-backed securities purchasing program to shore up the recovery and steer the continent away from deflationary decline.
*4
Support levels can be found at 1.2940, alongside the current yearly low, 1.2919. If the EUR/USD is going to return to the 1.30 area, resistance can be found at 1.3013 and 1.3051.
*5
9 september 2014: Eur/usd goes to 1.20.
*6
Eur/usd goes to 1.2750
*7
eur/usd first goes to:
/\1.3010
Then to: /1.2872
And then it goes to:
/1.2799
*8
Eur/usd:
· 1.2984 is an immediate resistance line. 1.3104 is stronger.
· 1.2905 is providing weak support. 1.2806 is the next support level.
Further levels in both directions:
Below: 1.2905, 1.2806, 1.2688 and 1.2518
Above: 1.2984, 1.3104, 1.3175 and 1.3288
*9
Eur/usd goes to 1.2892, then to 1.2750.
*10
Eur/usd goes to 1.2041 (elliot wave) as C corrective wave.
Maybe Eur/usd is going up 3000 pips, because RSI is at the bottom.
As for the support level, they start at Thursday’s 14-month low 1.2919, and include 1.2896, ahead of what looks to be an important level at 1.2804, without neglecting 1.2753. We also should pay attention to the long term retracement in this area, the Marji 57.1% retracement at 1.2877, and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 1.2786.
Support:
• 1.2919: Thursday’s 14-month low.
• 1.2896: July 8th 2013 daily high.
• 1.2877: the long term Marji 57.1% calculated for the whole gigantic move from 2012 yearly low 1.2041 to 2014 yearly high 1.3991.
• 1.2804/10: a small support area combined of the daily lows for July 4th & 7th 2013.
• 1.2786: the long term Fibonacci 61.8% calculated for the whole gigantic move from 2012 yearly low 1.2041 to 2014 yearly high 1.3991.
• 1.2753: July 8h 2013 daily low, and major bottom.
Resistance:
• 1.2986: Friday’s daily high, which is the highest price seen after reaching Thursday’s 14-month low. Breaking above this level is a first sign of strength.
• 1.3010: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% calculated for the drop from September 3rd high 1.3158 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
• 1.3039: micro term Fibonacci 50% calculated for the drop from September 3rd high 1.3158 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
• 1.3067: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% calculated for the drop from September 3rd high 1.3158 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919. This is probably the most important resistance for now.
• 1.3107: short term Fibonacci 38.2% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
• 1.3165: short term Fibonacci 50% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
• 1.3200: short term Marji 57.1% calculated for the drop from August 15th high 1.3410 to September 4th 14-month low 1.2919.
Trend:
• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.3067.
• Medium term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.3476.
• Long term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.4109.
*11
US non-farm payroll report came out significantly weaker than expected. But USD/EUR barely bounced so we expect bearish.
*12
At the end of September eur/usd becomes bullish
*13
French Industrial Production data release on Wednesday could accelerate the euro selloff. We hold a short position with an initial target of $1.2750.
*14
USD is expected to go up, because of the JOLTS Jobs Openings, which is expected to improve in the August release. Elsewhere in the US, there was positive news from last month’s services and manufacturing PMIs. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI continued its impressive climb, hitting 59.6 points, well above the estimate of 57.3. ISM Manufacturing PMI climbed to 59.0 points, beating the forecast of 57.0 points. The impressive readings from the manufacturing and services sectors point to a balanced economic recovery. If US numbers continue to point upwards, we could see an interest rate hike in the early part of 2015. USD/EUR: 1.2806 is the next support level.
*15
The brief consolidation pattern above 1.2917 is already over and the downtrend is renewed, for a slide towards 1.2750. Initial intraday resistance lies at 1.2917 and crucial on the upside is 1.2995.
*16
EUR/USD resistance is 1.3050 according to the analysts of HY Markets. Support is 1.2920 and then 1.2880.
*17
As far as downside targets go 1.2800 is a possibility because it is a round number and the exchange rate may pause there for a while before extending lower. Below that is 1.2750 were a major support and resistance line is situated. In strongly trending markets there is little else to say. A possible entry point might be a couple of points below the 1.2850 round number.