After spending the past few months reading and reading and reading forums about different systems and peoples success, it’s dawned on me…
There’s only 2 places the price can go… UP or DOWN.
All I’ve done over the past 4 weeks, is bi-daily, I’ll open up 5-6 pairs, and go to town. On each pair, Ill place a 15/50 pip SL/TP.
With prices only going up, or down, it’s essentially a 50:50 chance of win/loss with no other factors included.
If I lose, I lose 15 pips. If I win, I win 50 pips.
So even though my chance to win lose is 50:50, It would take 3x losses to negate my 1 win.
Obviously, going long or short is dependant on you and where you think it will go, may it be a hunch, trend lines, or whatever. I go by trend lines. Either way, I started with $400AUD 4 weeks ago. I’m at $3k+ now Running Mini-FX on igmarkets.
In the forex.com thread you said you were up to 45 dollars. That post was today.
A mini lot of EURUSD (10000) would cost aprox 616 dollars US, making each pip worth 1 dollar US. So with 45 dollars (which gets you maybe 500+ units at Oanda with little to no room for SL and a pip value of $0.01), it seems difficult to imagine you could get to 3K in 4 weeks.
10000 is a mini lot. 500 units is .05 cents, not .01 . But nevertheless, I agree, this is probably made up. Also, he just edited his post to say $400. Maybe he is trying to sell us somthing?
Essentially, it’s all common sense. You don’t go short when there’s a MASSIVE long trend
I think to optimise this sytstem, we need to see how many times a particular couple of currencies move 15 pips, and not 50. Hard to explain >.<
EG: AUD/USD may go up 30 pips, but then come back down. What we need to figure out, is to figure how large the average rise is (with a 10pip either way variable to cut down on noisy date). I know this can be done, I just don’t ahve the software/know-how to do so.
I think once we find that, we’ll be on victory road.
But then again, it’s too good to be true. I’ll lose it all soon no doubt :o
long eurusd + long usdchf is esentialy the same as long eurchf. It isnt realy a hedge since they have different daily ranges, which lead to divergence ( hence creating fluctuations in eurchf).
While you could average the gains, there is no average gain.
Been there, done that.
The market is almost a living breathing thing, that defies any sort of rhythm. There’s never two days alike, so trying to create averages when there are none is a dead end.
The chart tells you where the most logical stops and limits should go.
I wish making money in the markets was that easy.
Unfortunately it is not.
There is NO statistical advantage to opening a trade with a risk/reward ratio of 1 to 3.
It really sounds great on paper- gee, all I have to do to make a million in the market is set up 1 to 3 r/r ratio trades based on little more than throwing a dart.
The fallacy with this idea is that if you initiate a trade with a 1 to 3 r/r, the odds of getting stopped out are 3 TIMES AS LIKELY than making your profit.
Therefore, in the long run there is NO WAY to make money simply by flipping coins with 1 to 3 r/r.
If you are up money in the short term doing this, I would take my profits and use it to find and trade a long term viable system- one that has a win rate of 70% or better.
This is how you make money trading- systems with very high win rates and reasonable r/r.
Don’t get me wrong, Me and everyone would love trading to be as easy as flipping coins but I am afraid that this approach, which has been tried by everyone and his brother, is simply NO DICE.
What Finally says is bang on and expressed clearly. Even the most basic statistical analysis backs up his statement. The fortunate thing about your simple system is how simple it is to determine that it won’t work in the long run.
Running Mini-FX on igmarkets.