Right. Let’s get to these posts (and then I’m done for the day i.e. this is the weirdest Thursday as things usually happen on a Thursday but today is dead looks like to me).
I really do appreciated all the insight and the detail that you went to in your posts. Thank you.
One thing that you do emphasize over and over is the trend and going with the trend. I doubt that you’ll find any trader worth their salt that will disagree with you. But you already know the problem: when is a trend a trend and when is it not. I spent years trying every indicator known to man in order to try identify trends and to absolutely no avail. There are many (and Wilder’s ADX being the finest of all in my opinion) that can tell you when the trend is ending or over. But none that I’ve ever found to tell you that a trend is now starting. And I mention Wilder’s ADX which is SUPPOSED to tell you whether a market is range bound or trending but as dear as the old man is to me: I don’t see it. So the point I’m trying to make is to not beat yourself up over these trends. Very easy to see a trend after the fact and then beat yourself up. Big difference when we’re in real time. That’s my experience anyway. And probably one of the reasons why I’ve not had a proper trend trade for many years i.e. I eventually just gave up on them. That’s not to say that I’d really love to get into one of those trend trades that last for months and months on end. I would. But either I cannot see the wood (trend) for the trees or I miss the beginning of the trend and only see it in hindsight. And I guess this comes down to the reason why it’s really only this system that I trade and that I can trade. It suits my personality and somehow compensates for my shortcoming in not being able to see these things.
You mention taking instruments out of your portfolio because they’re not done you justice. Oddly enough for me: Gold is something I have very rarely made a profit on with ANY trading system. The only reason I still give it a shot is because this trading system was designed for ETFs and well tested with good results on the GLD ETF. Now one could argue that I’m trading spot Gold and that’s why I’ve never had a real nice decent trade on Gold. They don’t move THAT differently so I’d not be convinced. But this is also the reason why I do not trade FOREX. I lost hand over fist and a lot of money in the first few years. But bearing in mind I was full of myself and over trading and still learning and whatever else what struck me as very strange is that even in those years and when I did bother with statistics such as yours: overall all of my equities trades were profitable whereas every single one of my FOREX trades were not. And unfortunately the FOREX losses topped the little bit of equity profits by F-A-R (cannot emphasize F-A-R enough). And my question has always been to the skeptical: how is it possible that the same trader, same shortcomings, same lack of knowledge and experience, and same crummy trading system(s) at the time could eek a small overall profit on equities but FOREX cost him the farm. To date: nobody has ever been able to give me a reason for this.
So that’s my response to your wonderful posts.