Well. It’s been a while. A LONG while. But for better or for worse: here I am (here we go) again!!!
I was going to start out with a long reintroduction etc. but decided against it. I’m sure there’ll be those that have questions about me and my antics over the years and I’ll address those if asked. I see there have also been numerous private messages sent to me over the years but I’ve not logged in here for a very long time so my apologies for not responding to those private messages. This being said: I’m not going to respond to those private messages i.e. it’s all old news and questions that are no longer relevant. Furthermore: I urge anybody interested in my prior antics to ignore most, if not all, of what I may have posted in the past (and believe me when I say there are thousands of posts). I’m not saying that all that was posted in the past is irrelevant or total and utter garbage but it’s only going to serve to confuse. Furthermore and in just reading a very few of my old posts: I was pretty co*k sure of myself let’s face it. Those days are long gone i.e. the markets, age, and some unfortunate life experiences have taught me humility on no uncertain terms!!!
So why am I here today???
Well since my spectacular and rather public wipe out which cost me the farm (and then some) as well as costing some very decent people a fair amount of money (which I still deeply regret to this day) I’ve been a working stiff just trying to make ends meet until pretty recently where I’m unable to simply make ends meet anymore and need to make some money to tide me over for a few months. Now while that may sound like desperation (which it is I suppose) it’s not impossible based on experience over the past few years. Is this something I’d necessarily like to do or be involved with again??? Not really to be honest. I’ve got enough stress on my plate right now to last me another two lifetimes and this business is stressful in and of itself and by its very nature. But this right now is the only thing I can turn to in order to tide me over. That last statement should at least give some comfort to anybody interested in what I’m about to present i.e. I have traded this particular system over the past few years off and on and have on occasion made money but have also lost money and, as things stand now, I cannot say that overall I’m in profit. Familiar as that sounds there is one major difference: my losses cannot be attributed to the trading system itself but rather to my own shortcomings and demons which, unfortunately, tend to rear their ugly heads when I’ve been doing well i.e. being over confident usually after a string of consecutive profitable trades. In short: the number of profitable trades by far exceeds the number of losing trades if the trading system is strictly adhered to. But how you handle your success is what makes or breaks the trading system. It does have one flaw though and this, I guess, is my main reason for posting here. I am not trying to sell a trading system here nor trying to make a trading system popular here. My main purpose really is to get some input from other like minded individuals who may be interested in improving this trading system. As I said: I can vouch for the fact that over a number of years the number of profitable trades by far exceeds the number of losing trades. Its inherent flaw is that fact that a very very few losing trades can wipe out a entire string of winning trades and if this problem can be solved well, then, it’s a sure fire winning trading system.
At this point and before continuing: it must be stated that I am not (no longer) affiliated with, nor work with, nor for, any broker of any kind.
Right well if you’ve read this far: great. Let’s see what we can do here.
This trading system is by no means something new. As a matter of fact it was introduced to me by a dear friend on these very forums some many years ago. At the time I was too busy going hell for leather with my own stuff and never really got into it and not to mention spending far too much time of these forums which was a total distraction at the time (and something which I don’t intend repeating). Furthermore (and if memory serves me correctly) automated back testing didn’t yield spectacular results at the time. This being said and in having years of experience with this trading system now: I think I know why.
The trading system is called the TPS Trading System (Time, Price, Scale-in). It was published in an e-book called “High Probability ETF Trading” by Connors Research (which I have attached to this message). The system was specifically designed for trading ETFs. However: I’ve used it on Indexes, Futures, and Commodities and it has yielded fantastic results (the caveat being what I’ve noted above re: a few losing trades being able to negate a slew of consecutive profitable trades). I refer you to Chapter 8 entitled “An Introduction to TPS”. Have a read through (and feel free to read the entire e-book as well i.e. some of the other systems also do have merit but subject to the same caveat). It has very simple rules. But it also has one fatal flaw and that is that it does not use stop losses. Now on the one hand: this works wonders for the simple reason that there are no stops to be gunned for by the market (it avoids that well known phenomenon of being stopped out of a trade only for the trade to go in your favor in the very next bar). But here’s where two problems come in. The first problem: because there are no stops it’s difficult, if not impossible, to calculate your risk per trade. The second problem: a trade could go against you for an extended period of time before an exit signal is generated. Now solve these two problems and you’re home free. And this is the real purpose of this thread being started i.e. to somehow solve these two problems.
And why this particular trading system??? Because in spite of the many years spent on these forums and my thousands of posts: it’s the only trading system that has indeed proved to be consistent (both in profits and losses) over a few years (at least the last five years anyway).
I’ve typed a whole bunch here now. I’ll wait to see if there’s any interest before proceeding further with some ideas.
Looking forward to hearing from some.
And thanks for reading.
For some or the other obscure reason I don’t seem to be able to upload an attachment. Not sure if this is something new i.e. no attachments??? Anyway and to this end: below is a link to the same e-book on Google Drive.