Capital is $3000, the EA was asked to use a full lot size of 0.1 (hence 0.01 + 0.02 etc). That wasn’t calculated, just a working knowledge thumb suck.
These results are the end result of all the trades the EA was able to generate over the 10-month period, trading 24/5.
Incidentally, I tried a test with SMA 350 and another with SMA 500. the former came up with the same sort of result, while the latter made a loss. So it seems there is a sweet spot for SMA around 300 or so. But don’t use this at home. I might be a quirk of EURCHF and conditions over the last 10 months.
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Well listen up.
Really appreciate your efforts (not that it’s for me but you know what I’m saying). And really nice to see that you’re getting results.
The lot sizes will make a difference though. I know there’s been many times before I started using that risk based position size calculation that I was in fact UNDER TRADING relative to capital. And there were other times were I was indeed OVER TRADING. That calculation really does seem to be spot on the mark for this system and for the stops. UNFORTUNATELY: it makes it VERY clear just how much capital you actually do need to trade this trading system And it’s a LOT. You would be surprised if you did those calculations. But I guarantee that if you do bother with those calculations and risk management and correct position sizing: it may take a lot longer to become a rich man. But you will never wipe out and you will end up with a really nice and decent profit year after year after year. And certainly on par with some of these fancy investment firms. And that’s good enough for me.
Are you referring to real human discretionary traders here? Remember that this is an unsophisticated trading robot I’m using. If the test results I’m getting mean anything at all and can be sustained over time, then the big difference between me and those mile high club traders is that I will be on my round the word cruise, and around and around, while my EA slaves away on a VPS and I pick my money from Automatic Teller Machines around the world! LOL!!
Of course, that won’t happen because dumb programmes can’t be responsive to changing conditions, but you get my drift. We can’t compare a dumb machine robot with high flying human traders.
BTW, just run a test on AUDUSD and got 19.8% on my first try (same 10 months etc etc as before).
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No. I’m talking about all of these systems that PURPORT to make +100% per month type of thing. Do yourself a favor and look at these threads where they all started out claiming OODLES of returns and in most cases eve have statistics to prove it. Fantastic. And then the thread just ENDS DEAD after a few months. That’s not because the dude got bored I assure you.
What I’m saying (and to use your words): if an unsophisticated trading robot can generate the types of returns that you’re getting with it then in my opinion you’ve hit the jackpot. And it will be SUSTAINABLE. No point in making +500% in three months and then losing -2 000% in the next nine months. And this seems allude many (not you!!!).
And to add: I wouldn’t be THAT sure that if that EA of yours is coded right that you’d worse than a human trader (me to be blunt). You know there are times when I don’t do the right things. Fine example is Hong Kong in the last few days. You EA would simply have taken the trade and left it at that. I got impatient, took a little profit, and the next thing it flipping exploded. Up AND down to boot i.e valid signals for both. And that does make a difference. Bearing in mind I pretty much use the shotgun approach and trade as many instruments as I’m able to relative to margin requirements. Sometimes not all of those positions close at profit. So nice trades like the two that I’ve just missed make a difference overall if you see what I mean.
Those are the ones who promise fast women and beautiful cars!!
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Yeh. This is more for those who have to walk to the shops and have no woman!!! LOL!!! (NOT FUNNY actually).
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Sadly. Nothing to report tonight. Markets have been in the doldrums the entire day. Not even a point to uploading screenshots tonight as very little has changed since the last update of earlier today or this morning. But and is usually the case (and for reasons I’ve been trying to ascertain for YEARS): Thursday’s is usually pay day for the markets. NO idea why this is. But I’ve watched these things for enough years to see the pattern. Matter of fact I remember joking about this some MANY years ago on a thread i.e. said we could all go home and just trade on a Thursday and the result would be the same. I see nothing has changed.
So. For once I may as well go to bed like a normal person and at a reasonable time.
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Good morning.
Wow. Longest I’ve slept in months feels like!!!
Was fully expecting to wake up to HUGE money!!! LOL!!! But alas: we sit with markets drifting and going nowhere. And of course needless to say: it’s costing me money because I’m short everything so I’m paying interest and dividends!!! LOL!!!
Anyway. Let’s see what happens today. No point in uploading anything i.e. nothing has changed really.
Frankly: I would not really mind a nice move up so that I scale in further on positions i.e. I’m not fully loaded on anything other than Apple and only once fully loaded is where the nice money comes from.
As I said somewhere before: this probably the only trading system on the planet where you actually want trades to go against you for a time. Still: it would be nice for something happen between today and tomorrow. As all following this will know: there’s an urgency on my side to generate income. And we’re already half way through the month. End of the month comes quick.
But this also does demonstrate the reason why when asked about monthly gains I am VERY clear to say 5% - 10% per month ON AVERAGE over a year’s period of so. You will not make those gains every month. But the next month you will make more (and sometimes a LOT more). So when averaged OUT those are the realistic gains for this trading system. But it’s not a monthly cash cow.
Well. Once again: the trading day is but am embryo.
You know what. You never know until you try.
Today is the day I’m going to get brave and attempt to trade pivots on the basis that I mentioned a day or two ago. Why not.
Briefly:
As is obvious: the TPS is short. But as of right now: prices are trying to go up again. No problem. So I’m going to place limit sell orders at or just below pivot R3. In all probability: on the DAX. If the order gets executed I’ll update here.
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Right. Here we go. Proof of concept!!!
On the chart below you will see I have a limit sell order place at R3. The order is only valid for today (if it’s not executed it will automatically be cancelled at midnight UK time).
I’m fortunate enough in that my broker has another identical CFD instrument (for a number of the most traded instruments) so it means that I can manage this trade totally separate from my current TPS shorts on the DAX.
So let’s go.
I’m going short with 1 full lot i.e. I’m not bothering to calculate the position size as I already know what the maximum should be at this time. Futhermore: not stops. And I believe AT THIS TIME (it could change) the way to play these trades would be to exit them at market just before the close no matter whether in a profit or a loss.
Note that this is NOT the TPS system detailed on this thread. This merely and experiment based on some crucial observations made over the last few weeks.
Germany 30 (Hedge) Daily 13062019 1026
Now I need to add this:
These are “set and forget” trades. In other words: no order executed no trade. Move on. Do not try and finesse these trades. Do not try to second guess them or jump in at market just because it LOOKS like the thing is going to trade to the pivot but is not quite going to make it. Theses are opportunistic trades at best. And you are trying to get in at the most extreme possible good price.
At far as an intraday TP is concerned: one could probably used the next lowest (in this case) pivot level to TP. One could close out half the position at the next lowest (in this case) and then let the rest of the trade run and TP at the then next lowest (in this case) pivot. I’m undecided at this point. But will update if we get a trade.
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Below is a 15-minute chart of the DAX with pivots and showing the order.
For the sake of interest I’ll probably sit and watch what happens.
Germany 30 (Hedge) 15-minute
By the way: ignore RSI at the bottom of this chart. It’s meaningless and has nothing to do with this idea i.e. we are still looking at RSI(2) on the daily charts and never anything else.
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If it’s going to work on anything it’s probably the S&P500 let’s face it. So below is a 15-minute chart of the S&P500 Futures showing the pivots and pending limit sell order at R3.
Let’s go.
SP 500 (Hedge) 13062019 095914
Removed all other indicators from the chart for the sake of clarity. Remember it’s the daily charts we’re looking at for signals AND the desired direction of the TPS system.
By the way and off topic and just an observation:
I see many of the so-called “Gold bugs” are punting to buy Gold. And I’ve seen some interesting bits of Gold analysis of late. My bias, based on what happened last year, and based on the fact that historically June is the worst month for Gold, would have me going short Gold. However: Gold is moving inversely (roughly) to the Indices. Which is pretty much the way it’s “supposed” to be. It would therefore not surprise me (as much as I hate to admit it) that some of these individuals could be quite right (for once anyway) and that Gold is going to break out and shoot for the stars. Reason I say this is because I would not be in the least surprised if these markets tank BADLY at some point and people move into Gold. This has traditionally been the way this correlation has worked. It broke down last year pretty much. But it sure does seem as though it’s back.
I’m posting above certainly not as trade advice. And I can tell you that I WILL NOT be trading Gold AT ALL. But I guess I post for posterity i.e. assuming I’m still around and have by some magic trick been able to get out of the situation I’m in then it’d be nice to look back on this post in a few weeks or months just to see if I was right and if I’ve learned anything since 2005!!!
After testing AUDUSD comprehensively, the sweet spot seems to be TP 160 pips, SMA 300. EURCHF was TP 220, SMA 300, so so fr one consistency is the SMA 300.
Capital $3000, full lot size 0.1, profit 30.7% in 1 year.
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Nice. But OBVIOUSLY I have to ask a question (for me): have you tried WITHOUT the SMA at all??? Obvious reason why I’m asking is because I’m now ignoring it in lieu of having proper position sizing and a hard mental stop.
Be keen to know as that’s not testing I can do myself (sorry to try taking advantage).
But I will say this (stating the obvious):
That’s now two pairs. Add those percentages together. And throw in a few more pairs??? Let’s say you end up with only 100% per annum overall. That is darn good let’s face it. In my humble opinoin. Not great money if you only have a few bucks. But how about doubling $100K USD or even R100K ZAR in a year??? And being able to do it year in and year out to boot!!! That would do me nice. And any self respecting investor would jump at the chance. Even at 50% per annum (you could take the other half) (and of course any donations this side would be most welcome!!! LOL!!!).
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By “not using the SMA at all” do you mean buying and selling each time the RSI goes above or below the limits, i.e. ignoring trend direction? Not sure whether the EA is coded that way at present but it should be possible. Perhaps setting it on zero? I’ll check.
The emergency stop when price closes the wrong side of the SMA seems like a good idea, based on testing, so perhaps I could retain that aspect of it but do away with the trend definition.
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That’s what I’m doing at present yes i.e. have removed the 200-day SMA totally and just acting on as advertised RSI(2) signals.
Yes. I really do think this systems needs those stops. Based on that risk based stuff: these stops are really far away and I don’t see them interfering with the core system itself on a day-to-day basis. Matter of fact that calculation could be even more tweaked to make the stops wider but obviously at the cost of position sizing. But that’s also fine. Seems to me that if those stops ARE reached: it’s a bad trade and that’s that i.e. it’s not coming back to you.
We all know what that means!! You must have excellent risk management and are comfortable with your stop losses!! 
KC
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I have to say that is true my good man.
This is what I continue to wrestle with all the time and have yet to finalize my thoughts or committed belief/strategy.
My thought trading the dailies/weeklys the stop has to be much wider than intraday. Given that wide stop it’s a larger chunk of $$. I view it as “buying” .01 of a particular currency. If it begins to depreciate put it off to the side and watch or take a position in the opposite direction. If the the intial purchase is depreciating what is wrong in holding it (assuming it won’t dramatically impact ability to trade) until it begins to appreciate and adding to that position as it does so?
This may sound very naive and goes against “the standard thinking” but logically it makes sense to me. Why would I want to sell at a loss if I didn’t have to?
This is a serious post - no joking here . I run this loop in my head all the time.
Don’t want to push thread off the rails…
KC
