TPS (Time, Price, Scale-in) Revisited

Broke the rules I’m afraid. Took profit on the S&P and Dow positions that were opened with this trading system i.e I just happened to be short both with my other trading system and the markets tanked so I thought what the heck. So no positions open here. Even although the potential exists for the Indices to go down further: I don’t see today’s action as the start of any decent pullback or correction i.e. I think there’s still another leg up before that happens. So on the next higher closes I’ll start to scale in again but with the a number of positions AS IF I’d started from the beginning. This results in you getting in late of course but it means that when RSI(2) closes below 30 (in this case) the profits are greater of course. Of course: I could be wrong too in which case I’ll have missed the shorts. But oh well.

Figured I’d better update this thread.

The trades with this particular trading system are as elusive at the Yeti it would seem. I honestly don’t remember a time in the last few years being out of the market with this trading system for this long. But then again: could be me that just never noticed or didn’t really have to care one way or the other until May of this year. I do, however, have a feeling that we’re going to shoot for another record high and, well, after that, watch out below. At which time this will shine (as will at least two other trading systems which I shall begin implementing when the time comes i.e. “Turtle Soup” and “Turtle Soup Plus One” and “Memory of Price”) (and those that have known me for a while will be all too familiar with both).

Wrong thread!!! And it’s my own!!! LOL!!!

I see this thread has gone dormant. Seems like all of us have gone off in search of greener pastures, I certainly have. The 2-bar pullback strategy I described briefly some time back is really working for me and as things stand it seems as if that is what I should be doing for the rest of my trading life. How boring! But I don’t think trading should be exciting, which is more reason to stick with it.

What my fairly extensive backtesting of the TPS strategy on forex showed me is that it is profitable, but not as profitable as one might expect and some years are losing years - years, not months or weeks. Also, there does not seem to be a one-setting-fits-all. Some forex pairs / years / periods of time suit a longer period SMA, others shorter, some a larger TP, others smaller, and so on, so overall, it is a go, but not earth-shatteringly so.

Hi.

The thread has gone dormant for a number of reasons not least of which is the fact that I reached and inflection point insofar as capital is concerned i.e. constantly having to withdraw profits plus capital to pay the bills so got to a point where there wasn’t a point to trading anymore. I seem to have somehow managed to get a reprieve however which will allow me to kick the can down the road for another few months all things being equal. But I’ll not be posting around these parts much anymore i.e. I’ve had it with the fake accounts and BS and quite frankly it (once again) became a distraction and a hinderance. It served its purpose though I guess. And not to mention the time and effort involved and for which there is absolutely no return in any way, shape, or form. And last but not least: no interest in a system that actually does make money. It may be boring and slow: but money it does make. And I’ve pretty much whittled things down to only this trading system and Wilder’s Trend Balance Point System (really nothing much more than pivots). This system makes nice profits but sometimes takes its sweet time about it. Whereas Wilder’s TBPS has a lot of action albeit that it’s a bit of a pain in the you-know-what to trade. But it would appear that the combination of the two do it for me.

For the sake of interest and completeness though (mainly for you I guess):

I’ve spent a good deal of time of late comparing ETFs with the rest of the stuff e.g. the Futures and the Cash Indices. And lo and behold: there are VAST differences especially when it comes to the all important closing prices and signals generated by this system. And this system was, after all, specifically designed for ETFs and nothing else. To explain further: because the ETFs are not traded 24/5 the signals generated at the close are different. In short and for example: trading the SPY SPDR ETF yields totally different (and far better) results than trading the S&P Futures. I’ve actually seen many trades closed profitably on the ETF but the same trades on the Futures resulted in smaller profits and in some cases even losses. And it pretty much boils down to the after hours trading of the Futures. And there’s more benefits e.g. the ETFs have opening and closing times so none of this 24/5 nonsense i.e. allows you to have a life especially if you’re trading ETFs listed on the LSE for example i.e. open at 09h00 our time and close at 17h30 our time. That’s like a “normal” working day. Also: no interest is payable on ETFs (but of course no dividends earned either). Also: more capital is required to trade ETFs and the spreads are wider. But all in all: the trade-offs are worth it. For me anyway.

So as far as I’m concerned: my work is done here. The system has been very clearly detailed. And anybody interested in it has the added benefit, as a result of this thread, of being able to correctly size their positions and implement stops based on risk based position sizing (which really is the keys to the kingdom with this trading system). And if anybody is interested and wiling to take the time and go to the trouble of learning and trading this system but cannot grasp it from the content of this thread: too bad. Cross my palm with USD/EUR/GBP and I’ll gladly help. Unfortunately: my experiences of the last few months have taught me a hard lesson i.e. nothing for nothing in this world. And I don’t see why that should apply to me and not everyone else.

Yes, I think this thread has served its purpose. It was interesting for a while, we all learned some valuable things, and it prompted me to get serious about some backtesting. But, like you, I seem to have found what works for me and continues to do so in the 2-bar pullback system I described previously, so why spend time doing stuff that distracts from the main purpose of making money from a system one is comfortable with.

I wish you well, as always, and profitable trading! Hope our paths cross again!