Hmmmnnn…
Maybe today is not going to be the day.
Strange though. While trades with this system may not come around as often as one would like: they don’t usually last this long. Rather tedious, and not to mention frustrating, at the moment I must admit. And sure starting to bring back memories and remind one of the difference between doing this to pay bills and doing this part time just to make extra cash to blow or for bragging rights (Jack).
Regards,
Dale.
Well now. There’s something you don’t see every day. UK and EU indices turn on a dime while US still in the red.
Never mind. Obviously some or the news event or whatever i.e. spike that didn’t last long.
Aha, just found out how to quote someone else’s comments - just copy and paste!
Dale, are you referring to the TPS system here? Are you using it as advertised, or in adapted format. If adapted, could you comment on how and why you adapted it?
Thanks
Alistair
Aha. Well done.
Yip. Only the TPS system. This thread is dedicated to the same and nothing else.
There’s probably only two adaptions and I’ve posted them on this thread. Anything else posted here are proposed but untested and therefore not implemented adaptions.
The trades that I currently have open are exactly as advertised (as you put it) though.
In order to see what’s what you really do need to open charts (indices that is) and follow the trades through and then you’ll see what I’m going on about.
Regards,
Dale.
For the sake of clarity I’ll post my adaptions in my next post (with chart examples if necessary).
That would be great, thanks! (Now I’m the quoting king!)
Come to think of it and in just creating this post: there’s only one thing that I do different (no reason for an elaborate explanation or charts):
I take an initial position the moment RSI(2) closes below 25 or above 75. So let’s say that’s 1 unit (assuming I’m scaling in using 1+2+3+4) (as this could also be 0.1+0.2+0.3+0.4 or 10+20+30+40). Let’s just assume a long trade here. So I go long at market 1 unit just before the close if RSI(2) has closed below 25 again (99% of the time anyway i.e. there’s sometimes an exception to this rule but nothing major). Now let’s assume that the next day price goes up. I will take profit regardless of where RSI(2) has closed that day. As I noted in my first post on this: you do not want to hold onto these positions i.e. you TP and you’re out. But now let’s say that the next day price closes lower and therefore RSI(2) has (obviously) closed below 25. That is now a normal as advertised entry signal. So you go long 1 unit. Just as advertised. Only thing that’s different now is that you are long 1+1 units is all. But you continue to scale-in from that point as normal. So assuming the trade continues to go against you for a while you will then end up with 1+1+2+3+4 units. And that really is about it. Just take a look at some of the indices and you’ll see why. Many times RSI(2) closes below 25 (or above 75) and price turns the very next day. Sometimes it’s a fair amount of money and sometimes it’s minimal. But it’s money nevertheless.
Possibly the only other thing I do sometimes (but this is more of a function of my sometimes not wanting to stay up until late until the close) is if I’ve missed a trade (because I didn’t stay up) I will place an entry order at the exact price at which the bar closed yesterday. Sometimes it will be a stop order and sometimes it will be a limit order (just depends on how price has moved since the close and my looking at the chart the next morning). In the case of it being a stop order: sometimes price moves further away and the stop order is not executed. This results in your getting in at far better price that you would have had you gotten in the at the previous close. Key here is though: you go long or short with the units from yesterday PLUS the units that you would have gotten in with today. I hope that makes sense. In other words you’re effectively entering a trade late but at a much better price so you open your new position based on the number of units you WOULD have had open by that time.
Other than that: exactly as advertised.
Regards,
Dale.
This is the interesting bit for me, and in my visual testing and the charts I have posted showing results of that, I have found that the first trade is often a losing one, sometimes even the second one, and the profits come from the subsequent trades as price has climbed above where the exit point is. So to formalise that adaptation it would be “ignore the first TWO candles after prices goes beyond 25/75 and place trades 1 and 2 simultaneously on the close of the third candle” . We could go further - “ignore the first THREE … and go mad on the fourth candle”.
I don’t know how else to tell you this: you keep referring to FOREX charts. It’s not going to happen. And I’m not in a position (financial or otherwise) to spend time trying to adapt this system for FOREX as I have absolutely no interest in trading FOREX. Not even with your money!!! LOL!!!
Stocks and commodities move differently to FOREX pairs. It simply is what it is. I have proved this to myself on no uncertain terms. And if you watched those videos that I posted: there’s some pretty reasonable explanations for this (explanations that make sense to me anyway i.e. been searching for the reasons why for years and that guy just seems to put it into perspective for me is all).
You mention the losing trades if you take the first signal (which is not as advertised). Do yourself a favor and take a look at Brent Crude just these past two weeks.
You have to realize something: this system is “balanced” for want of a better word. So MAYBE you are right (and I’ve not done the analysis that you have). MAYBE one could elect to ignore the first two candles. Good and well. But what about the times the system as advertised is correct??? Then you would have missed that trade altogether. As I’ve noted: I believe that this system is profitable simply because of the scale-in approach and not the sheer accuracy of RSI(2). Call it the “shotgun approach” maybe. And yes: unfortunately the scaling-in dilutes your entry prices if the trade goes against you for a time. But it is what it is. If this system were that accurate that one could know for a certainty that on a particular trade you’re going to get x number of signals and then price is going to turn (which means you would then go all in on a position at that time obviously) well then we’d probably not be having this conversation and i’d be a very wealthy man.
Regards,
Dale.
Now instead of spending time second guessing the system - here right now is something worthwhile to be testing and putting some thought into:
RIGHT NOW as I type this most of my positions are getting very close to RSI(2) hitting 70. At this point in the day that doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s going to CLOSE at or above 70. But let’s just say that happens. So I’m then going to TP on most of those positions. BUT NOW: I will take a side bet that prices will continue to rally tomorrow. IF they do: I’m out and losing out on those moves. Matter of fact: nobody knows i.e. we could rally right back up to the record highs made not even a few days ago. And with this system: you’d be sitting on the side waiting for a hopeful pullback so that you can get a signal and get back in again. Now there is one PROPOSED adaption IF POSSIBLE i.e. how to loosely obey the as advertised rules but not get out of the trades too early at the same time. The caveat of this being though: I could be wrong, something happens overnight. and prices turn on a dime. So now I’ll be carrying these positions AGAIN for another week (bearing in mind I pay interest every single night) and who knows where they’ll end up i.e. maybe they go so badly against the trader that there’s not hope of an RSI(2) close above 70 that will result in a profit on any of them. See what I mean about “balance” here??? But maybe there is a way (and getting suggestions for this was another reason for my starting this thread).
Now to make it easy: I have tried this on a few occasions but not with spectacular results. I created a spreadsheet that allowed me to work out what price was needed for RSI(2) to be equal to 70 (long trades being used as an example here). So let’s say that in order for RSI(2) on the Dow to have closed AT 70 the price needed to be 25 000 for example. But price has closed at 25 050 for that day. I then set a stop loss at 25 000. The idea being is that IF the trade kept going in my favor the next day then I could trail a stop up assuming that my stop at 25 000 was not executed. But that’s the problem: 98% of the time that stop was always taken out because normally it’s very close to where price closed. But now having spent some time looking at pivots again (basically for something to keep me busy during the day really) I can tell you that price usually stops at a pivot. Maybe setting those stops at the pivot level closest to price for the current day could be a solution (but depending on how far away such pivot level is could cost you some profit).
So there’s something to ponder.
Regards,
Dale.
As I type this another fine example:
The Spanish IBEX (futures) are going to close in just under two hours. As I type this RSI(2) is sitting at 72 AND (assuming no surprises in the next two hours) that means that price is going to close above the 200-day SMA (KEY LEVEL FOR STOCKS AND COMMODITIES THAT MEANS SQUAT ON FOREX) which, if this happens, will act as support tomorrow. And then price continues to rally for the next week. And I’ll be sitting on the sidelines waiting for a pullback and a signal to get back in. Solve this problem and this system will be worth a lot of (more anyway) money. AS ALWAYS though: the caveat being that price could just as easy turn on a dime overnight (and if this happens the IBEX will gap down and I’ll be glad that I took profit).
Come to think of it: I’m possibly answering my own questions here (and I posted about this the other day). I’d rather be OUT of a trade wishing I was in (having taken profit to boot) than IN a trade wishing I was out!!!
And maybe my conundrum above isn’t an issue at all but just pure greed.
Oh well. Just some random thoughts (to self).
Regards,
Dale.
And listen up: I need to say this.
Maybe this system is not for you. Matter of fact: I doubt this system will appeal to 99% of the people around these parts. There’s no action or excitement. And the gains overall, although constant, are not that high. As I stated at some point earlier today: best case scenario (assuming this rally continues and I don’t have to TP tonight on all of my positions) I may close out at anywhere between 5% and say 7% -7.5%. But that will be just over one week’s worth of work. Most (around these parts anyway) would not even consider wasting their time with this and would consider gains of that nature paltry and not worth the effort. And then there’s the other problem that you may only get more entry signals in a week’s time. I mean to say: there’s another thread going here where the chap is up over 30% in one week. Obviously I’ve got no way of substantiating that but I’m sure that anybody interested could examine the trades on a demo account at the same broker and, well, if it’s legit then maybe that’s an option. But for me: I’ve never made consistent profits doing anything else. And I’m not in a position right now to start experimenting with something else that I myself do not have a proven track record with.
Some food for thought is all.
Regards,
Dale.
Hmmmnnn…
Looks like I may be in luck with Spain. It’s traded to Pivot Level R4 no less (R3 usually being the dead high or dead low of any given day and pretty much a self fulfilling prophecy ON STOCKS). And stalled. With any luck price will retrace JUST a tad and I can leave the trade open until tomorrow. But: I shall update closer to the time.
Hmmmnnn…
I just read your last post again and I think I owe you an apology. You were not second guessing the system. You were merely saying that you’ve seen my adaption in action and were attempting to formalize it. I do apologize.
The above being said: your logic is quite sound BUT for the fact that it would cost you a few normal as advertised trades. And given that trades with this system are so sparse: it’s not something I’d recommend (at least not if you’re having to make a living out of this) (but in your case it could be an option i.e. far less trades but 99% winners for example) (but would they even out in the end is the question I guess).
As I say: my apologies for going off at tangent or two or being brash. There is nevertheless some food for thought in those posts (not specific to you) so I’m not going to delete or edit them.
Regards,
Dale
Good save there! Nimble work! Apology accepted.
Yeh look. It’s no excuse. But I am indeed under serious pressure here due to a (albeit temporary) situation or setback (nothing to do with trading). And as I’ve noted and as per numerous other discussions around these parts: big difference between doing this because you HAVE to as opposed to because you WANT to (the former not being a something pleasurable I can tell you). And sitting on these things for this long and watching them oscillate between profits and losses is frustrating to say the least. The norm with this system really is in for two or three days maybe and then out. Rinse and repeat.
And for what it’s worth: my tooth ain’t helping matters either!!!
Tell you one thing: you want to make real money then forget about trading and become a dentist. R400 today for LITERALLY two minutes just to tell me that she cannot do anything until I’ve finished the meds. that I got on Monday morning (total cost of those was R800). And then R4 000 for a root canal (which takes all of fifteen minutes) if I elect to do it. It’s madness!!! And the waiting room was full up!!!
Alright. Well. I’m out of Spain for a (relatively anyway) decent profit all things considered. Took a small profit on the FTSE as well. In both cases: if you check the charts there was no way I could scale-in to full positions. The FTSE bounced around somewhat and I was not implementing my adaption of taking the first signal so was sticking to the system as advertised and that yielded only one entry point. Thereafter it closed below its 200-day SMA so couldn’t scale-in there either. Point is the position and profit was so small it certainly didn’t warrant my staying up until 23h00 tonight even if it took off like a rocket in the next two or three hours. Pretty much the same thing with Spain. As for the rest: will probably check them (from bed on my iPad I might add) at just before 23h00 and see what’s what although at this stage and unless we see a rally into the close: RSI(2) is not going to close at or above 70 tonight. Which is great ASSUMING the rally continues tomorrow. We shall see.
Regards,
Dale.
P.S.
Out of Australia too with a (pathetic) profit. Has not been moving enough and with a small position size.
Well. That’s it for me. Nothing going to happen now that’s going to cause RSI(2) to close at or above 70 on any of my remaining open positions (good trades I might add). This of course (today) is the ideal situation i.e. a rally one day that doesn’t quite get to that point and a rally the next day that pushes RSI(2) over the edge. It happens often enough. So: all things being equal, today’s moves that carry in to Thursday, and out at the close tomorrow. Rinse and repeat. If not: the saga shall continue.
Good morning.
Dodged the “early exit bullets” last night. And so far so good. As noted in my previous post: with a bit of luck I should be able to close everything out tonight. And that’s about it. No new possible trades or signals on the immediate horizon. So we shall see.
Later.
Well. That’s it. I’m out. For +12.94%.
Why???
Call me a coward if you like. But the amount of profit on the table was a material amount to both myself and my account balance. And as I’ve noted previously on this thread: I’m here solely for the purposes of making some money to make ends meet. Not to prove a point.
The above being said there was indeed some logic to my exiting the trades early as opposed to exiting as advertised. For one thing: the three US Indices had stalled at various pivot levels. The S&P 500 had, as a matter of fact, traded to R2 and stalled. Pivot R2 is normally shorted as it is a relatively extreme move. Of course price can trade through R2 no problem if there’s enough conviction.
There is obviously no way of knowing, until the close, if I’d have been better off waiting for the RSI(2) close above 70. I guess we’ll see tonight (if I’m bothered to stay up now that is). But in this case: I used my judgment for the reasons given above. I do not usually do this though (very seldom actually so do bear this in mind).
Of course and if price bounces off (down) from these levels there’d be no reason for me to not go long again given that they’re all still valid trades (but the chances of my doing that are slim i.e. I think I’m done for the week and, more importantly, I’m happy). I did note at the beginning of thread that I take profit if there’s been a parabolic move in the market. I’m not sure if today’s action could constitute a parabolic move. But I do know the moves have been substantial (the Dow’s intraday range so far today has been 397 points while its 14-day Average True Range is currently only 361 points ) and it takes a lot more conviction for price to move up than down.
Anyways. That’s it. A nice re-boot or re-start of my “trading career” (for this year).
Regards,
Dale.
P.S.
Oops. Just noticed something. No rest for the wicked!!! Evidently (and all things remaining equal for the next few hours) I’ll be going long Gold at midnight. Or not i.e. may just wait and see what it’s looking like in the morning and if price has dropped further will place a stop buy order at today’s close (and so on and so forth i.e. anybody following my antics should have the picture by now).