OIL / CL
This video discussed the large bullish weekly pinbar setup that has formed in light crude. I discussed the current market structure, trading tips and trade ideas. Notes from the video are posted below.
Current Market Structure
-Long term bullish trend
-Price has stayed within bullish channel
-Large bullish weekly candle from pullback off of key support
-Chances are higher now that price makes a string bullish run up to $75 and may even make a quick run to 80.
-Keep in mind that oil is generally a volatile product and large out-sized moves are common.
-This can be traded as pure directional using either futures , CFDs, or ETFs(with oil exposure), but due to the high IV I am looking to get both directional and short premium, which can be done by selling puts.
-Either enter on a retracement around $69 (more risky) or a break above the weekly candle around $71.25(less risky)
-Price targets are $75 and $80
-Sold a put w/ $61.50 strike(15 delta, 30 DTE ) when price was at $67
-Rolled that put up to $64 strike(17 delta, 27 DTE ) when price was at $69
-Now that we have a price action signal I am considering rolling up to a 30 delta option($66) to get more directional
-Keep in mind that September light crude is at 68.14, $2 below spot price