In this video I talk about the bearish inside bar fake-out pattern that has formed on the daily charts in the gold futures market. I cover a short educational lesson on the important of market key support and resistance levels ahead of time. Finally I cover some potential entry / stop loss / profit taking levels for short sellers.
In this video I talk about the potential of a setup in the key resistance area of 1.18 to 1.185 price zone if a bearish candlestick pattern forms in this area. This would off a very nice, with-the-trend, short selling setup.
The British Pound has had a wild ride in the last 24 hours with major volatility inducing events. That volatility has caused a downside break of the long running bullish trend , with a failed retake of the trend. Upon attempting to retake the channel price has failed to retake the trend support and has also formed a small bearish pin bar and continues to hug the bottom of the trend as resistance. If price continues to be unable to retake the bottom of the channel we could see price fall sharply lower. A tight stop loss could be employed somewhere above the bottom of the channel, in case price were to reclaim the channel support. This offers a very compelling risk/reward setup on the short side.
My accurate bearish call from last month played out nicely as price broke out of the pennant pattern and proceeded to drop to our first price target of $6,000. Price has since popped back up to retest the bottom of the pennant . This is the moment of truth for bitcoin on whether it can reverse it long term bearish slide or whether it will continue to drop and make new lows. In an attempt to break up above the pennant price has fall back below today’s lows and has formed an ominous and bearish pattern called the inside bar fake out pattern. This is an inside bar pattern, where price breaks out and then pulls back in, which signals that traders are now trapped in their long positions and price now has the fuel needed to drop quickly.
I want to emphasize that today’s candlestick has not yet closed, so this pattern isn’t official until close, but if the bitcoin market closes around or below $7,400 then we may see price quickly drop lower from here. Also be aware of the strong, short term bullish trend of the last week, and any short positions should be strictly protected with stop losses.
It’s kind of freaky how accurate this analysis was from a month ago. I called exactly the drop, profit target, bounce and retest of the pennant.
This video discussed the large bullish weekly pinbar setup that has formed in light crude. I discussed the current market structure, trading tips and trade ideas. Notes from the video are posted below.
Current Market Structure
-Long term bullish trend
-Price has stayed within bullish channel
-Large bullish weekly candle from pullback off of key support
Trading Tips
-Chances are higher now that price makes a string bullish run up to $75 and may even make a quick run to 80.
-Keep in mind that oil is generally a volatile product and large out-sized moves are common.
-This can be traded as pure directional using either futures , CFDs, or ETFs(with oil exposure), but due to the high IV I am looking to get both directional and short premium, which can be done by selling puts.
-Either enter on a retracement around $69 (more risky) or a break above the weekly candle around $71.25(less risky)
-Price targets are $75 and $80
Trade Ideas
-Sold a put w/ $61.50 strike(15 delta, 30 DTE ) when price was at $67
-Rolled that put up to $64 strike(17 delta, 27 DTE ) when price was at $69
-Now that we have a price action signal I am considering rolling up to a 30 delta option($66) to get more directional
-Keep in mind that September light crude is at 68.14, $2 below spot price
A major sell signal is potentially forming in the EURUSD. A large bearish pennant has formed and a bearish pinbar is currently forming off of the top of this pattern. The pennant pattern is giving us our bias and the candlestick pattern is giving us our entry signal. If the daily candle closes bearishly then this could be a tradeable setup. I will update my analysis after candle close.
Market Structure
-A bearish pennant format has been building since June
-A major selloff lead into the pennant pattern which give this set an even greater bearish bias
-A bearish pinbar is forming on the daily chart from the top of the pennant channel. This is create a major confluence of sell signals
Trading Tips
-If the daily candle closes as a bearish pinbar we may see price crash hard in the coming days
-Whenever a bearish price action candlestick forms off of the top of a bearish pattern it creates the most optimal risk/reward setups
-DO NOT JUMP THE GUN, WAIT FOR THE DAILY CANDLE TO CLOSE
Trade Ideas
-If the daily candle closes as a bearish pinbar a short entry can be made multiple ways, with varying risk/reward profiles. On the Forex markets a trader could wait for a break of the bottom of the and then enter short, or for a more risky but better Risk/Reward profile a trader could enter short if price retraces back up the pinbar , or a combination of both for a hybrid trade.
-Another way to trade this is by selling a call on the futures market (ticker /6E). This would allow a trader to profit from a drop and also collect premium in case price moves sideways and does not aggressively drop as expected.
-Finally the ETF FXE could be traded as either outright stock or a synthetic short position could be created using the stock options.
Wow, I called that Euro trade like a pro. Just tanked hard and down almost 300 pips since the analysis.
It’s all in the price action.
Bearish price action is forming in the US Dollar -0.53% on the higher time frame charts. On the weekly charts an evening star pattern has formed on a bearish pin bar is currently forming on the monthly. Price action next week will tell us a lot about where the dollar may be heading, but if the dollar closes the month even weaker then it is right now it could mean continued bearishness in the dollar over the next year or two. This is certainly worth keeping an eye on.
There is another set of confluent bearish patterns forming in gold right now. This points to the likelihood that gold drop lower yet again and either retests or breaks even lower than the recent lows of 1167. There is a head & shoulders pattern with a very bearish slant as well as a pennant formation. In addition there was a large bearish fake-out last week where price broke up and out of the pennant and was slammed back in immediately. This can be seen clearly in the intraday candlestick charts. The bearish pennant combined with the bearish overlapping patterns is creating a high probability scenario that gold will break down lower from here.
This hasn’t changed my long term perspective on gold which is bullish but for those looking to play the smaller time frame or hedge their long positions, these short term trends are still important to watch.
From the bullish price action I discussed yesterday, price pushed significantly higher very quickly. Price pushed into the key resistance zone of 1205-1215 last night and this morning broke above, reaching as high as 1218. This 1205-1215 zone was a critical zone to hold as it is a major road block to gold -0.24% putting in a real bottom. Unfortunately for the bulls, price was slammed back down and formed a very bearish evening star pattern. Due to this weakness and golds inability to hold above this zone I think we could see price tumble back lower to trend line support(1200), first key support(1190), and/or second key support(1166).
Silver has formed a number of bullish reversal patterns over the past few weeks/months. The 3 primary patterns that I am tracking are an inverse head and shoulders , a double bottom , and a large inside-bar false-break pattern. These 3 patterns are all in confluence and all have the same confirmation breakout price level of around 14.95. While nothing is a guarantee, if price is able to break through this 14.95 barrier the movement could be significant and quickly carry price up into the 16.20 region where price will bump into its next major resistance area.
Now that I have my blog going string (for 3 days now 
), I am going to be posting from that as well. In 2019 I plan on posting to my blog regularly where I will talk about my trades as well as stuff that might be considered educational. I also plan on getting back into posting to trading view regularly as well. So expect to see links to both in here.
I’m my two blog posts today I talk about some trade management I did today, which helped stave off some of the pain from the stock market selloff today. I also talk when to buy into weakness after a large price plunge.
I will be rolling out a new thread soon discussing trading options on FX. This blog scratches the surface a bit on my core options position. Not related to FX but to get familiar with the terminology and strategy.
QQQ*
Here are some patterns and candlesticks forming in QQQ right now.
Just a heads up to anyone visiting this thread, I have moved everything over to a journal that I am running in the Global Markets forum.