In this video I show some good past setups on the EURUSD that would have been profitable as well as take a look at where the markets may be going over the next week or more. I focus primarily on the inside bar pattern and some potential ways to trade these setups.
Since early this year there have been a number of high quality price action setups including inside bars, engulfing bars, and pin bars. The majority were quality, trade-able setups that would have offered risk:rewards of 1:2 or better. Price is currently stuck in a strong bearish trend so we will be looking for small pullbacks into key resistance areas to get short with the trend. There is also a larger head-and-shoulder pattern that is currently forming. Prudent traders will want to watch closely to see if that pattern continues to form as well.
In this video I discuss the 4 bearish signals in Bitcoin right now and why I think it is highly likely price will continue to tumble from here. Bitcoin is in the process of forming a text book bearish pin bar.
BTCUSD has been in a strong downtrend over the past week or two and has staged a minor pullback. This was a moment of truth for the bulls to see if the downtrend would be reverse and that reversal has failed. A bearish pin bar is essentially showing a failed breakout where now participants with long positions will be squeezed out (long squeeze) as price continues to fall. Due to this fact it is common to see a sharp price movement lower after a bearish pin bar has formed. There are multiple layers of confluence in this trade 1) bearish pin bar , 2)false break and rejection from key support, 3) rejection of 9 ema , 4)continuation of the bearish trend.
USDJPY continues its very bullish march higher. In cases like this we find key support levels, look for market exhaustion and price pullback to these levels and then wait for high quality bullish price action signals to get long with the overall trend. We never want to go short during strong bullish trend like these since becomes a game of picking up pennies in front of a stream roller. As long as the bullish trend hold then we want to find opportunity to get in the markets with the overall trend. A key support level to look for price action patterns during a pullback is the 100.50 to 100 level.
USDWTI has had a great run up over the past few weeks. It was blasted through each resistance level and continues to march higher. In markets like these we do not want to play chicken with a freight train, which means we do not want to go short at all. Right now we want to look for any opportunity to get long. Price has slowed within the last few days and is showing some signs of exhaustion. We want to be looking for a price pullback into the 69-70 range and then a large, clear, high quality bullish price action signal to form. Prudent traders will be watching this area for bullish patterns to form and be ready to pounce on the opportunity if it comes.
The patience, discipline and accurate technical analysis has finally paid off in a big way. For those of you who were on the right side of the market with me, congratulations. After more than a week of consolidating and multiple bearish signals on the hourly, daily and weekly charts, price has finally broken out of it’s range in a very bullish manner. Some of you have already taken profits while others may be holding on for a further run higher. If you missed out on this trade by sitting on the sidelines or were on the wrong side of this setup then I would encourage you to follow my channel and begin learning more about price action trading.
While I am personally trading the SPY due to it’s great stock and options liquidity there have been a number of great bullish signals being through in multiple index and futures markets. Today I focus on the NASDAQ 100 futures and point out a nice inside bar/2 bar reversal pattern that as already broken out to the upside as well as an inside bar/ false break pattern that is currently forming in the daily. I will be watching where the markets are going into the close but a pin bar does end up forming on the /YM futures I believe that could set us up for our next bullish move. As always with price action, price must break out of the pattern before it is confirmed. In the case of the inside bar/ false break pattern, if we do end the day with that pattern then a breakout of the inside bar pattern would still need to occur for this new signal to be trad-able. Those who jump in early to make a few extra bucks are doing so at the risk of a far less probably trade. When the patterns do break out the probably of success goes way up.
I am just finishing up a family vacation and then rolling right into a business trip that will see me travel to Houston, Texas and Chicago, Illinois. I am completely worn out and just need to get through the business trips and all will be good. I am sure I will be lighter on posts over the next week but will still keep a little bit rolling out as I find time.
USDWTI blew through near term support last Friday and has now fallen to a critical support. Due to the importance of this price level we may see it hold where the near term support levels were not able to hold. If your a contrarian trader and believe that this key support level will give you increased probability of price holding and popping higher in the near future this may be the right time to buy. There are a lot of different strategies to go long oil , a very bullish strategy would be to go long OIL or the futures . A neutral to bullish strategy would be to sell puts in OIL or XLE to collect the high premium that the options are fetching and profit from any move higher.
In the USDJPY pair price has reached a critical support area and I am not watching for any sort of price action candlestick or pattern to get long. Price has been in a strong bullish trend for the last few weeks and while price has pulled back quite a bit since last week the bullish bias is still intact. Prudent price action traders will be watching for any sort of long signals to buy into the overall bullish trend . If price were to break below this key level and hold I may switch to a more bearish bias and begin looking for bearish price action from levels of resistance. Although that has not happened yet and I am still looking and bullish price action setups.
My trading style is similar to yours , I hope you dont mind me also posing in your thread as the time goes by, but I wanted to just let you know that when it comes to oil there might be a bigger swing/position trade if you zoom out your chart a bit . I am currently holding a sell position in WTI at about the $70 mark and I see it go lower over the next couple of months to possibly the $50 mark at least . Its just something to consider
I provided analysis two week ago where I laid out a case to go long on a pullback to the 109 region. There were two ways to trade this, either a more risky zone trade or waiting for a price action setup to go long. Price did reach this zone and then formed a double inside-bar pattern that broke out very strongly to the upside. Looking ahead I will be watching to see if price pulls back to this 109 zone again for a second chance to go long, or if price shoots off in a very bullish manner I will be watching for any pullbacks in price to get long with the overall trend.
Price has had a small bounce off of the bottom of the pennant that I have been discussing for the past few weeks. This is a bearish bias pennant and one that I am watching to go short from. There are 2 potential trade setups to get short, one is simply going short on a break of the bottom of the pennant , which will confirm the pattern. The second option is if price rises to the upper pennant area, to then watch for bearish candle patterns to get short. Some candles to watch for is a bearish pin bar , bearish engulfing bar, inside bar/false break, and double/triple tops, just to name a few.
I also discuss a common newbie trading mistake that you may have found yourself in this past week. Watch this video to see what the newbie mistake is and my advice on how to avoid it.
I mentioned in a EURUSD video analysis 2 weeks ago that we might see price drop a bit further and then reverse back up to potentially form a head and shoulder pattern. That looks to be exactly what the EUR is doing right now and is now only a short distance from a key resistance level where we will be intently watching for trade setups. I will be watching for price reversal signals at this key resistance zone to get short with the overall trend. Due to the relative bearishness over the past month or two my bias is still solidly bearish and any trades I take will be short positions. The only way I may change my bias on this is if price were to break through this key resistance and show continued bullishness. Although that hasn’t happened yet and I will be watching as price reaches this resistance zone for high quality bearish price action candles.
Copper has taken off from a nice bullish pin bar that had formed off of a key support trend line . This was a near text-book pin bar setups and the types of setups price actions traders should always be watching for. Price blasted off higher from the pin bar and is finally having a little bit of pause from a key resistance zone . When I will be watching for is for price to either fall back to the same support trend line and for another buy signal to form, or if price breaks through key resistance I will then be watching for a pullback to this level (which would have become a support zone ) and then watching for any price action candlestick buy signals to form.
I made an about face on my bias of gold yesterday where I flipped from bearish to bullish . This doesn’t mean I am indecisive or have multiple personalities, rather it was due to watching what price was telling me. Don’t ever be afraid to change your opinion of a setup on a dime. Price action and the “price story” is always changing, and thus our bias’ of that instrument could change as well.
The setup we are looking at is a bullish ascending triangle reversal pattern. I entered long yesterday evening (perhaps a little prematurely) but price has continued to show buying strength on each test of the lower portion of the ascending triangle which is what we want to see. Given how price aggressively recovered above the #1 ascending triangle , I think a bullish breakout is likely. Remember folks, likely doesn’t = 100%. Never bet the farm! To trade we need capital, so capital preservation needs to be a top priority. We preserve our capital by not over risking on individual trades.
If you are in this trade or eventually enter on a future buy signal, the nearest term resistance is in the 1355-1360 range. I will personally be dynamically managing my trades and may get out before that level is reached or stay in after price breaks through(assuming this is how it plays out!), but that level is a nice, common sense level for those of you who are more mechanical.
An inside bar/fake-out setup formed in the EURCAD minor pair last week. These types of setups can be very powerful false break signals where large numbers of retail traders were tricked into going one direction and price immediately whips in the other direction, trapping these traders. That can provide strong movement in the other direction as these traders are forced to liquidate losing positions. This setup has already ran up about 100 pips since my entry point and I will be looking to move my mental stop up to break even going into next week, essentially locking in a free trade and attempting to bag my original 3-to-1 RR.
