Third trade taken
Took the trade with distraction. Was also a bit impatient waiting for the right pullback to ride the downtrend. Will be closing manually if price closes above 175.81. TP is at 174.75. 10:1 leverage used.
Psych-wise, not feeling confident about the trade. I kind of lost focus while getting distracted by my cousin and my fingers just pulled the trigger.
UPDATE on TRADE 3
So I’ve closed my third trade after a stressful early morning. Though I got out at profit, I am not pleased psych-wise. I was too impatient in entering and was not focused. I even adjusted my original stop loss to a few more pips just to get my positions running.
My impatience was partly due to yesterday’s trade. I profited yesterday but got my gbp/jpy short position out at 177.50 (I entered at 177.94). Later on that day, it moved further down 150+ pips more. I spent most of the day thinking about all the profits I left on the table. (I manually closed that position because of a minor support level and because I originally aimed for 40-50 pips a day)
Anyways, my third trade was closed at +58 pips average. I averaged it because I closed 1/3 of the position at 54 pips and the remainder of the lot at 62 pips. I was going to try to average out of the trade, but I am really uncomfortable when a position retraces back and chips away profits. Any tips on how to manage this dilemma, guys?
GBP/JPY is definitely my favorite currency pair, since it tends to work well with SSI. However, it may not be the most conducive to range trading. The graph below is from a DailyFX study of over 12 million real trades placed by FXCM clients worldwide in 2009 and 2010. It shows the 15 most popular currency pairs that clients trade. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades.
We can now clearly see why some traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades. On GBP/JPY, traders were right an impressive 66% of the time in GBP/JPY – that’s twice as many successful trades as unsuccessful ones. However, traders overall lost money in GBP/JPY because they made an average of only 52 pips on winning trades, while losing more than twice that – an average 122 pips – on losing trades.
Poor risk/reward ratios and overleveraging definitely play a part in this, but I think the greater volatility of GBP/JPY and bigger price swings can make this pair particularly tricky for many traders. I think that’s why SSI tends work well with GBP/JPY as a contrarian indicator.
That would have been much better in retrospect. :30:
My automated strategy is long from 177.374 since 9/25. Thankfully, most of those losses are offset by gains from my short positions on AUD/JPY and USD/JPY mentioned earlier. Since, I tend to place longer term trades, I diversify my risk across 5 major currencies (USD, EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD) and the 10 crosses between them using a combination of SSI and Strong/Weak analysis.
Fourth Trade Taken 10/02/2014 09:38PM EST
I wasn’t planning on making another trade at least for the day, but the minor pullback gave me a reason to enter the downtrend again. Leaving it overnight w/c is against my rules, but I will be leaving it with a stop loss. I am again using 10:1 leverage. Risking 2.4% on this trade.
Psych-wise, fully accepted the risk. Was patient in entering. I was eyeing it around 174.98 and would have entered then and there if it was my old self.
UPDATE 10/03/2014
My fourth trade got stopped out at 175.79 while I was sleeping. I knew I should have waited for the right candlestick signal. I was impatient again. Still, at the moment, I don’t feel the need to avenge my trade. No sadness from the loss. Just waiting for the next tradable pattern to unfold.
Fifth Trade Taken 10/03/2014
Took a long position after seeing a break from the downtrend trendline - retracement - and then a support level around 175.00. 2:1 risk reward ratio with a 10:1 leverage.
This will be my last trade of the week. Will be closing it before 5pm as per my trading rules.
Update
So I closed out my last trade for +6 pips profit. The setup was all wrong. I may have taken the trade because I wanted to regain my losses from the fourth trade. Anyway, I close out the week at a positive. Will start to look at charts again tomorrow. For now, I’ll take some rest. Have a good weekend guys!
Sixth Trade Taken 10/06/2014
My 6th trade was based on a broken down trendline - retracement - retest of old support. I took a long on GBP/JPY even though major trend since 18th September is bearish. Risk to reward ratio is 3:1. Leverage is 10:1.
UPDATE 11:16AM EST
Still holding onto my long position despite putting an SL at 174.70. I will close manually if price closes below 174.58. This will decrease the R:R ratio to 2:1.
Psych-wise, was a bit disappointed when that bearish bar came out of nowhere.
UPDATE 08:25AM 10/7/2014
SL on this position was hit overnight at 174.70, which was my original stop loss. Price came back up to my entry level several times but I still didn’t take out the position to prevent loss. Was still hoping it would go up further. -27.6 pips for me.
7th TRADE TAKEN 10/07/2014
The position was based on a pinbar on a major support level. I entered after candlestick after pinbar broke recent high. Did not wait for it to close though. R:R ratio is 3 to 1, manual SL if price closes below 174.29 and TP at 175.65. Leverage used is 10:1. I was bit skeptical to take the position since UK GDP is coming out at 10AM.
UPDATE 10/07/ 16:30 EST
The position went south so fast I couldn’t muster the discipline and courage to close it when I should. Instead of my original sl at 174.29, I closed it at 174.09. Whew. that’s -53 pips for me.
I was really stressed with this trade. Had a strong conviction that it would work as I saw a similar pattern form before. I entered really quick though. After setting up the laptop, I just took the trade. My previous losing position may have given me the itch to trade and recoup my losses.
8th TRADE TAKEN 10/07/2014
I took the trade without much thinking. My huge loss on the 7th trade just pushed me to take this one. Did not plan any SL or TP.
UPDATE 10/07/2014 16:47PM EST
Closed my position at +26 pips. I will not be trading anymore for today as I am already emotionally compromised. Hope you guys are having a better week!
9TH TRADE TAKEN 10/08/2014
I took the position at 9AM EST. Wasn’t able to post it immediately. Anyway, I took the counter-trend position after seeing 2 strong bullish bars earlier that day. One of the bars was actually the last bar for a morning star formation. Still was skeptic though, since the downtrend looked really strong and the 20-EMA was very successful at holding the price down. other factors I was worried about was the ongoing ebola epidemic and the upcoming FOMC. Trade had 3 to 1 original reward/risk ratio and a 10:1 leverage…
UPDATE:
The position quickly turned against me, going down as much as 30 pips away from my entry level. I was holding the close button at the time and was ready to close in case it fell sharper. Still decided to hold. Was really stressful but managed to keep my cool long enough for price to go back up. I really need to pick better entry areas. +52.3 pips today
I might re-enter if price pulls back enough for me to get a good entry level with a decent reward/risk ratio. As always, feel free to comment, especially helpful criticism.
10TH TRADE TAKEN 10/08/2014 10:51PM EST
Took an overnight trade based on pullback from daily bullish trend. There were dojis forming on pullback which is a good sign. Stop loss below the doji at 174.60. Reward risk ratio at 2 to 1 with leverage of 10:1…
If it doesn’t hit tp or sl tomorrow, will be closing it manually before high-tier news comes from UK tomorrow. Cheers!
UPDATE 10/09/2014
Screwed up the trade and ended up adjusting SL all the way down to 174.25 :17: This made me lose all my profits for the day. Last time im putting an overnight trade.
11TH TRADE TAKEN 10/09/2014
Took the trade without much consideration or analysis. Still was mad about my previous loss which would have been averted if I was able to stick to one of my rules, which was to never leave a trade open overnight. I sure paid for that (-57 pips) I won’t say I had logical reason as to why I took this one because it was pure gambling. I will keep my rule, however, on cutting losses short and letting profits run. Will keep the trade with a 2 to 1 reward to risk ratio. I did use bigger leverage of 15:1, which goes against my rules. Poor trade this one is. :26:
UPDATE 10/09/2014 13:19PM EST
Closed all my positions at +61 pips. Not happy at all though as the trade was baseless. Just gambler’s luck i guess. For now, will rest up and later will analyze some charts again. No more trades for today. Cheers!
12TH TRADE TAKEN 10/10/2014 09:04AM EST
Trade was based on current trend, which is bearish. I entered on a very small pullback. Keeping this position short-term with a reward/risk ratio of 1.6 to 1 and a leverage of 15:1 again.
Psych-wise, still an emotional roller coaster with down days and up days. I have tried to get out more since I’ve read that social isolation is bad for physical and mental health. Being an introvert, though, I get easily drained when i am outside. gotta figure out how to work around this.
Stop loss is a close above 173.30 and Target profit at 172.75. I entered at 173.09.
UPDATE 11:09 AM
I got greedy again and deviated from my plan. I moved the tp at 172.50 just as price was hovering within 172.75. :mad:
UPDATE 3:26PM EST
I closed my last trade for the week for +8 pips. Was greedy earlier so I missed my opportunity to take it out at +31 pips. Anyway, I decided to close it as per my trading rule of not leaving trades open over the weekend.
Psych-wise, will be working more on the effects of greed and fear on my judgement and choices. I’ve noticed that i start to daydream of heroic acts whenever i win and then revert into a humble and philosophical idiot whenever i lose.
Technical-wise, my familiarity in market patterns on the H1 chart are starting to improve, particularly when a bull market is about to reverse. i do need more work on picking entry and exit prices. I always either enter too early or exit too early.
That’s about it. I hope you guys had a good week as well! Cheers!
13TH TRADE TAKEN 10/13/2014
Long GBP/JPY at 172.5 with SL at 172.3 and TP at 172.9. Short-term counter-trend position. I woke up early and missed my chance to short the pair for potential moves further down when it was still around 172.9. Will be watching this pair closely and maintaining a 2:1 reward/risk ratio. Leverage used is 15:1. Am not entirely comfortable with trading against the trend, but I figured a short-term pullback to the top with decent RR ratio can make me some small quick pips for the day.
UPDATE 11:15AM EST
The trade went well for the first hour, going up to +31 pips. Unfortunately, i forgot that the main trend is still down and it could reverse any second. and it did :24: During the trade, i even convinced myself that price may be reversing to the upside and that I may have grabbed the first seats to see the pair skyrocket. Before I knew it, I was down by -17pips. I closed the trade as soon as it retraced a few pips to the upside again and closed at -8 pips.
14th TRADE TAKEN 10/13/2014
After closing my long position, I decided to enter the market with a trend trade position. I shorted at 172.41. SL at 172.60 and TP at 171.85 for a 3:1 reward risk ratio. Leverage at 15:1.
Psych-wise, still calm. No stress. still trying to organize my routine though.
UPDATE 10/13/2014 5:10PM EST
During the first 2 hours of the trade, it went south up to -22 pips. My original SL was at 172.60. I removed my SL, and decided to close it manually if the candlestick closed above the 172.60 area. Fortunately, it did not. The trade went north from then on and i was able to snag +55.8 pips from this position.
Honestly, it was a bit frustrating holding this position. I was coming out of a loss from a long position, then this short position was turning negative. which got me frustrated that i may have closed the long position too soon to wait for it at least at BE level. The only thing that made me hold on this position was the prevailing bearish trend, which did not fail me. Really need to learn how to wait for the right entry/exit levels.
15TH TRADE TAKEN
Took another short around 170.31. Immediately turned against me and closed manually at 170.53. Will wait for another short entry today. -21 pips.
16TH TRADE TAKEN
Took a counter-trend position and entered long at 170.40. Closing manually at 170.20. TP at the half of the big bearish bar at H1 chart…3 to 1 reward/risk ratio. 10:1 leverage used for the trade.
Psych-wise, still stable… No stress despite a previous loss.
UPDATE 10/14/2014 11:39PM EST
After hours and hours of frustratingly holding into the position, finally decided to close at +4pips, which brings me to a daily negative. I closed it since I do not want to hold the position overnight and there is mid-tier news report coming out early tomorrow morning.
17TH TRADE TAKEN 10/15/2014
I placed an entry order last night before going to bed. I noticed the most recent continuation points for the bear trend happened during the late Asian/Sydney session. I put a short entry order around 170.9, which is a few pips above the last swing high or minor resistance to protect my account from whipsaws. SL was at 171.3 and TP at an unrealistic 169.00 level. Was unable to get screenshot though because it was an entry order and I wasn’t sure if it was going to get triggered. Reward risk ratio was 7:1 (lol was kidding myself in setting such a high TP overnight). Leverage used is 11:1.
UPDATE 04:50AM EST
Woke up to check my account on my mobile. Was 50+ pips positive. Still did not close though. Considering I am a daytrader, it was pretty greedy of me not to. After all, i didn’t have to work for the trade. It just came that easy to grab.
Around 5 to 6AM, the trend started turning south and went back up to the 170.9 level I entered. Onset of stress was noticeable, regrets and negative thoughts were starting to form in my mind. Finally, around 7AM, trade went back to 50+ pips. I decided to close before price moves up again. Price is consolidating within the 170.09 to 170.85 range so the probability of a further move down, in my opinion, becomes low.
18TH TRADE TAKEN 10/15/2014
Decided to re-enter short at 170.02; A new lower low formed and pierced the recent swing low at the 1hr chart of GBP/JPY all thanks to a slate of weak US data. Did not close to form a new low though. 2:1 reward risk ratio with 11:1 leverage
UPDATE 09:39AM EST
TP was hit at 169.5 for +51 pips. So much for my “unrealistic target” at 169.00 which i said earlier. The market just keeps surprising me and proving me wrong lol…
Psych-wise, am trying not to get too excited or happy because of my wins today. Also avoiding entering scalp trades. I sometimes fall for this because i think i am unstoppable. i end up going long and short and long again because of this until i eventually turn profits into losses plus extra from broker commissions.
19TH TRADE TAKEN 10/15/2014
Took a counter-trend trade. No real technical basis for this. I just couldn’t resist the small pullbacks on the 5min chart. Also, i am speculating that bears are starting to scale out of positions for the day. I entered at 168.09 with a mental stop loss at 167.85 and a TP at 168.65 for a 2.5:1 reward/risk ratio and a leverage of 10:1
Trend-wise, still looking to enter a short position if price climbs enough for a good rr ratio.
UPDATE 10/15/2014 2:16PM EST
Closed manually at 168.53 for +43 pips. I did not want to push it since it could reverse on me sharply any second. Well that’s me for the day. Enjoy the rest of the day guys!
20TH TRADE TAKEN 10/16/2014 8:55AM EST
Took another short trade at 169.21. Mental stop loss at 169.45 and TP at 168.50 for a 3:1 RR. 10:1 leverage used. bit reluctant though as i did not base the trade on anything. just confident of the bear trend. From hindsight, it does not look like a high-probability trade but rather a medium quality one that’s good for scalping.
UPDATE 10/16/2014 10:21AM EST
The trade was a disaster. :26: It went as far as -61 pips. I was confident i could close it around 40 but price was just too quick. Was really stressed out. Fortunately, it went down enough for me to close at my original risk area. Closed at 169.47 for -26 pips.
Psych-wise, am not happy with how i handled myself during the trade. was very agitated and panicky. Not sure if i can make another trade for the day as i am already emotionally compromised (borrowed that from Spock 
)
21TH TRADE TAKEN 10/16/2014 11:33AM EST
I am all over the place today. Decided to take a short position again in hopes of finally catching the continuation point for the bear trend. In 5 minutes, im already down -20 pips. Entered at 170.18 with a mental SL if price closes above 170.45, TP at 169.00. Leverage 10:1.
UPDATE 10/16/2014 8:31PM EST
Very disappointed with this trade and i have no one to blame but me. After holding it for 10 hours and having it turn against me for -140 pips, i managed to finally grow a pair and close it for -86 pips. The experience was really excruciating mentally. Was cursing and punching air as the trade goes further negative.
I think what made this trade a disaster was the fact that i was too fixated on the bear trend that i forgot how to be more flexible when price suddenly makes a sharp turn from the main trend. I was 100 percent confident that price will still be bearish and refused to be wrong. Paid a hefty price for it.
