I want to open my own trading journal. Because I often test and try different methods and theories. I want to try to predict the market situation and pay more attention to technical analysis. Many people think that everything should be tested in real trading, but I disagree. Firstly, it is expensive, and secondly, it takes a lot of time. First, you need to test the theory of the strategy on a demo account. And in the future, I want to be able to follow the forecasts, thoughts and return to them if necessary.
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Good luck with it. Looking forward to seeing it!
Do you think it’s necessary to “predict,” to trade profitably?
All the people I know who have eventually become steadily profitable agree with that.
It doesn’t have to be expensive, and of course it’s much, much quicker than testing things on demo accounts: on initial backtesting, you can run a system past a whole decade’s price-data in minutes, and this then enables you to decide what’s worth forward testing (obviously much more slowly!) on a demo account. 
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I hope that everything will work out for me too. Demo trading is as close to real as possible and initial backtesting may not take into account many factors, such as emotions, broker trading conditions, personal characteristics of the trader
Perhaps it’s necessary to “understand,” to trade profitably, if you have learned to predict correctly, then you have learned to understand. Let’s not forget about the personal qualities of a trader… What do you think about this?
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IMO the word “predict” causes a lot of problems and a lot of misunderstandings in conversations among retail traders (i.e. in forums).
I think two things are very important is to understand.
Firstly, it isn’t at all necessary - and maybe not even very helpful - to know which way the market you’re trading is more likely to move.
Secondly, everyone has losers as well as winners and win-rate alone isn’t a helpful metric - nobody knows whether their next/current trade will be a winner or a loser and that doesn’t matter, what matters is what proportion of their next 200 trades will be winners (in conjunction with their “reward/risk”, of course).
I think it depends exactly what you mean by “personal qualities”.
Sadly, I think that very articulate, persuasive charlatans like Mark Douglas have done great collective harm to the retail trading community by convincing thousands of people that what matters most is “psychology” (this undoubtedly overlaps significantly with what many people mean by “personal qualities”), whereas the reality is that no amount of “good psychology” is ever going to enable someone whose method doesn’t have a genuine, objective, provable edge to achieve steady trading profits.
That necessary, genuine, objective edge can clearly only be proven by statistical evidence, of course, and in reality that means (usually quick) backtesting, even if only to decide what to forward-test (obviously much more slowly).
For all of these and other reasons, I think that retail traders who aren’t both able and willing to backtest reliably, understanding what they’re doing, have almost no chance at all of ever becoming steadily profitable over the long term. The success-rates in this game are very low, and not backtesting reliably, IMO, is a way of stacking the deck even further against oneself than how it was initially stacked (which was never exactly “favourable” in the first place!).
This is just my opinion. Some people disagree with it (but they’re not people who are actually making their livings by trading! 
).
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Hi all!
Considering the situation with EURUSD, first of all I would like to note the sharp dollar index collapse after the statement of US President Donald Trump about the introduction of tough and high tariffs for a large number of countries of the world, which may be a consequence of the start of global trade wars.
If trade wars continue to escalate, this may lead to a decrease in confidence in the US economy. As a result, investors may start looking for safer assets. This may further weaken the dollar in the long term.
At the moment, in connection with these events, the EURUSD pair has risen sharply due to the fall of the dollar, reaching 1.1145. When analyzing the H1 timeframe, it is clear that the price is trapped inside a triangle, the exit from which up or down can determine the further behavior of the price - that is, whether there will be a rollback down with this upward trend or the price will continue its upward movement.
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Hi all!
As we can see, the situation in the world is uncertain, the markets react according to the current situation.
The chart shows that the “triangle” figure for the EURUSD pair worked well and the price still moved down, forming a technical analysis figure “flag”. To determine the direction of further price movement in this situation, I will consider the price reaction to the “flag” levels, where in case of a breakthrough of its upper side, the first target for upward movement may be the resistance level of 1.112, in case of a downward rebound, the target may be the lower side of this formed flag. It is also worth noting that EURUSD continues to try to take revenge after the gap.
Hello everyone!
I would like to consider the situation on the USDCHF pair. After a sharp and strong decline, which began on 04/02/2025 after Trump’s announcement about tariffs, the price is now consolidating in a horizontal range or flat formed on the H1 timeframe. The upper boundary of this range is the resistance level of 0.8620, the lower boundary is the support level of 0.8478. After another test of the upper boundary of the range and its false breakout, I am considering sales within this flat to its lower boundary, located at the support level of 0.8478. Only in the case of a true breakout with the price fixing below this level will I consider further sales.
Considering the current situation on the USDCHF pair on the H1 timeframe, the price most likely left the horizontal range, breaking through its lower border. It is also clear that there was a retest of the broken side with a rebound from it downwards. It seems to me that there is an increased chance of continuing the bearish movement on this pair.
A sloping bearish channel has formed on the H1 timeframe. The price is currently moving in it. Therefore, I do not see any prerequisites for growth yet. I think the price will fall to the lower boundary of this channel and may fall further. Bears are more interesting than bulls today.
Hello everyone! The trend for the EURUSD pair is still upward. Yesterday, the last high of the previous week, located at 1.1142, was broken upwards. I am considering continuation of the upward movement to the resistance level of 1.1400
Hi everyone! The GBPUSD pair continues to move upward. When analyzing the H1 timeframe, it is clear that the resistance level of 1.3124 was broken upwards and the price consolidated above it. The next target for this bullish trend may be the resistance level of 1.3235.
Hello everyone! The trend for the EURUSD pair is still bullish. At the same time, the technical analysis figure “Pennant” has formed, which is a trend continuation figure. If this pattern is successfully executed, then the first target for an upward movement may be the resistance level of 1.1426. In case of a downward breakout of the lower border of this figure, the target for a downward movement may be the support level of 1.1245.
Hello everyone! I would like to consider the situation with the USDJPY pair. The general trend is still downward. At the same time, on the H1 timeframe, you can see how the price previously broke through the support level of 144.00 and consolidated below it, forming a range or flat. Now this support has become resistance, which holds the price quite well. Also on this timeframe, you can see that after the last rebound from this resistance level, the price is gradually decreasing along the local downward trend line on this timeframe. The target for this bearish trend may be the support level of 141.30.
Hello everyone! The GBPUSD pair reached the resistance level of 1.3292 during its upward movement, but then rolled back below the level of 1.3248, forming a horizontal range or flat between this resistance level and the support level of 1.3202. Important news from the economic calendar will be published soon: this is Eurozone news and US news. Therefore, a sharp increase in volatility and sharp movements in this currency pair are possible. In case of a breakout of the upper border of the above-mentioned range, the targets for a bullish movement may be the resistance level of 1.3292, then 1.3330. In case of a breakout of the lower border of the range, the target for a bearish movement may be the support level of 1.3122.
Hello everyone! Considering the current situation on the EURUSD pair, first of all I would like to note that today in many countries of the world Good Friday is celebrated, including in America and Europe. Therefore today, I think that we can not expect any extensive movements on the market for this pair. At the moment, the price has formed a horizontal range on the H1 timeframe, a breakthrough of which can show in which direction to expect movements on this instrument.
