[QUOTE=“GlobalMacro;675224”]The Nikkei 225 has formed a double top due to what appears to be risk aversion stemming from euro concerns and maybe oil plummeting. Serious bullish implications for yen, meaning most jpy pairs should be seeing bearish moves this week. I am expecting to see usdjpy go down to test 119.00 maybe 118.80 over the next few sessions.[/QUOTE]
Heh. Yep…
Great call bro. Made 400 pips on EJ and GJ. Two trades still running Aj short target 95.0 and 158 pips lock in
FOMC meetings minutes are on tap today… My gut feeling is that the minutes will evoke a dollar negative reaction. There is a good chance that discussion around the next rate rise will be more dovish then what the market took the statement for, and seeing how long the market is on the U.S. Dollar, there is plenty of room for it to be sold off.
Audusd long and usdjpy short seem to be the best trades to take advantage of this. If rate expectations are tempered, the Aussies yield should make it attractive, especially with the ECB expected to ease further and China rumored to be adding to economic stimulus. The pair is sitting at the weekly low at .8040ish… If the support holds, a nice double bottom would form indicating another attempt at .8245 is in the cards.
FOMC minutes are released… The most striking discussion is that the Feds state they must be confident that inflation hits 2% before they raise rates… With oil falling, that will drive inflation lower, the market should put two and two together and take this as doveish and dollar should sell off. Whether it does or not remains to be seen… Audusd is looking constructive for a long… Waiting for a breakout of .8065 for entry.
So the NFP came in strong, last NFP was revised higher, and un employment fell more then expected… So why did the dollar drop??!
Although it may seem backwards, it really isn’t. As I highlighted in my previous posts regarding the FOMC meeting minutes, the Feds have not expressed any urgency in raising interest rate and has highlighted low inflation as a reason for patience. The one NFP number that was probably being watched more closely then the headline jobs number was the wage growth component. This actually saw a decline over last month. Without wage growth there can be no inflationary pressure to battle, especially with commodity prices falling as they have been.
Without the rate hike expectations being pushed forward by inflation fears, the good job numbers were then interpreted by the market as a risk positive event as it increases global growth and consumption expectations, boosting commodity currencies like the Aussie and kiwi. It also doesn’t hurt that the dollar was extremely extended heading into the event with plenty of room for dollar bulls to take profit.
Looks to me like gbpusd is going to break the resistance at 1.5190ish sometime in the next few sessions. The fib retracement target would be around 60 pips higher.
[QUOTE=“GlobalMacro;676768”] Looks to me like gbpusd is going to break the resistance at 1.5190ish sometime in the next few sessions. The fib retracement target would be around 60 pips higher.[/QUOTE]
ding ding ding… Nice
good call!!!
GlobalMacro, could you advise any book or maybe you (ore someone else) can point me in a direction where I could get some info about fundamental basics or a bit deeper insight on how various central bank decisions influence relative currency, and how commodities, yield’s and other fundamental factors influence some currencies???
I would really appreciate any pointers.
A very solid employment report from Aussie today. Full time new employment is strong, participation rate is higher, and unemployment rate is lower… Very good release. This comes at a sensitive time as it has implications for the RBA rate decision next month. Markets have been pricing in a rate cut, but this release should change some of that and we should see some follow through on the immediate spike, even more so if commodities can recover.
[QUOTE=“lauris;677015”]good call!!! GlobalMacro, could you advise any book or maybe you (ore someone else) can point me in a direction where I could get some info about fundamental basics or a bit deeper insight on how various central bank decisions influence relative currency, and how commodities, yield’s and other fundamental factors influence some currencies??? I would really appreciate any pointers.[/QUOTE]
I’ll put together a post for you… May take a little bit though 
No pressure to you at all, if you have free time, that would be great, I think many of us would love to see some easy to read/understand basic info on these matters.
Thank you.
Holy $&@& … I was not expecting to wake up to see the eurchf looking like this! 1900 pip lower… Wow. I have posted a couple times that longing eurchf at 1.20 was as close to a risk free trade as you get due to the SNB indicating they would be holding the floor for a long time, but clearly they had other plans.
This is going to create a lot of trading opportunity, and I wish I had been awake for the action. The fact SNB will not be defending the floor anymore will reduce buying demand for the euro (caused by the bank defending the floor) and it will add another reason to be bearish on the currency.
For right now I’m long at 1.0192 … I’m up 100 pips with stop set at break even and looking for 1.05 . Although the SNB gave up on the floor they still have a mandate to ensure price stability and will still be intervening when necessary (uhm like now?!)
I’m just going to throw it out there… I think the SNB governor will be forced to resign within a month or two. There is going to be a huge backlash among Swiss business regarding today’s forex moves and he’s going to be punished in the media and eventually be turned into a political scapegoat. The last SNB central banker resigned after it was discovered that large forex trades were made by his wife shortly before he announced the eurchf floor at 1.200.
Powerful insights my friend. Do enjoy your thread very much. Keep it up. Knew there was a reason why I don’t trade the CHF. But still my GBPUSD went nuts still riding short on that (got my SL set just right) but my USDJPY long is turning against me. Might be a good idea to shut shop till Tues but I’ll keep the faith in my plan. All the best
Bob
I am feeling pretty confident about having a long audchf position. Currently have one opened at .6994 with an SL and break even and a TP at 0.7400. We are around all time lows for this pair, which doesn’t make much fundamental sense at all. I think this will retrace over next week and target the 61.2% retrace of yesterday’s move down. This long is a nice positive swap trade so I’ll be making money on it just for having it open.
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Look at you…at least someone is not closing the shop and still on go after the “mayhem” while others still in shocked and or still licking their wounds. Good for you!
[QUOTE=“PipNRoll;677608”]Look at you…at least someone is not closing the shop and still on go after the “mayhem” while others still in shocked and or still licking their wounds. Good for you![/QUOTE] hopefully you dodged the mayhem as well… Last two days have been CRAZY… I’m glad it’s the weekend because I’m burnt out from trying to stay on top of it.
I did…I catched a few after the fact but I too missed the initial moved because I choose to sleep in that day lol. I guess it’s a good thing.
I hear yah. The least thing you wanted to do is get burnt out. It is great to stay on top on everything but there are times you just felt exhausted and a need to unplugged and 're charge… Have a glass of wine or two :).Have a great weekend!!
Surprise rate cut by Bank of Canada… Nice. I got a nice fill on a long usdcad. There isn’t much resistance until 1.25.
Any retrace back to 1.22 is going to be a gift to the Bulls… I’ll add more to my position there.