http://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/SpeechesTestimony/bowenstatement012115
Well it was only a matter of time before the good ole’ CFTC would respond to the SNB move with threats of tighter regulations. Too early to tell what exactly they have in mind… But I doubt retailers are going to like it.
Alright here are my thoughts on eurusd pre-meeting. 
First… We have a very nicely well defined trend in the daily.
Second… It hasn’t had a 76.4% retrace in a long time… I’m expecting this to be a big resistance line when it eventually does occur. At 1.2050ish
Third… The 76.4% retrace currently is confluent with a big resistance line drawn from the low in July 2012. At 1.2050ish
Fourth… Another big resistance line from June 2006 at 1.1880ish
Fifth… Linear regression typically works well to define trends on the daily… Currently price is in the lower half, signaling it is probably overextended short
Sixth… The RSI is also signaling an overextension
Seventh… The COT report is showing an extremely stretched short euro position
Putting it all together I’m going to be looking for “buy the rumor sell the fact” tomorrow… I’m thinking the market will get what they priced, therefore nowhere to go but up. The key to a relief rally will be if the balance sheet only grows by around 500 billion euros or less or if Germany can avoid sovereign debt purchases.
The nice thing about today’s price action is it sets a nice daily high (around 1.1680) which I’ll be looking to as a buy entry if it is broken. Resistance line I mentioned in my fourth point (around 1.1880) will make a nice long target. My short entry would be the 76.4% retrace that is confluent with the 2012 low at 1.2050.
If draghi comes across as more aggressive then euro may fall further until the end of the week, perhaps into next week as well… But judging from how the market behaved after the FEDs announced QE programs, the euro should see a rally… Even if draghi is more aggressive then I’m expecting him to be, it will only be delayed by a few days.
[QUOTE=“GlobalMacro;678669”]Alright here are my thoughts on eurusd pre-meeting. First… We have a very nicely well defined trend in the daily. Second… It hasn’t had a 76.4% retrace in a long time… I’m expecting this to be a big resistance line when it eventually does occur. At 1.2050ish Third… The 76.4% retrace currently is confluent with a big resistance line drawn from the low in July 2012. At 1.2050ish Fourth… Another big resistance line from June 2006 at 1.1880ish Fifth… Linear regression typically works well to define trends on the daily… Currently price is in the lower half, signaling it is probably overextended short Sixth… The RSI is also signaling an overextension Seventh… The COT report is showing an extremely stretched short euro position Putting it all together I’m going to be looking for “buy the rumor sell the fact” tomorrow… I’m thinking the market will get what they priced, therefore nowhere to go but up. The key to a relief rally will be if the balance sheet only grows by around 500 billion euros or less or if Germany can avoid sovereign debt purchases. The nice thing about today’s price action is it sets a nice daily high (around 1.1680) which I’ll be looking to as a buy entry if it is broken. Resistance line I mentioned in my fourth point (around 1.1880) will make a nice long target. My short entry would be the 76.4% retrace that is confluent with the 2012 low at 1.2050. If draghi comes across as more aggressive then euro may fall further until the end of the week, perhaps into next week as well… But judging from how the market behaved after the FEDs announced QE programs, the euro should see a rally… Even if draghi is more aggressive then I’m expecting him to be, it will only be delayed by a few days.[/QUOTE]
Draghi came through with slightly more then what the general expectations were… I’d say the relief rally I was expecting may occur early next week after the Greek election results are in.
Great post, thank you.
[QUOTE=“lauris;678916”]Great post, thank you.[/QUOTE] your welcome 
Well as speculated last week, the regulations are being tightened in the retail forex environment. Today the NFA (separate from the CFTC) has mandated that leverage available to US forex traders be reduced for three currencies; the Swiss France, the Swedish Krona and the Norwegian Kroner.
Leverage for the CHF is now 1:20.
Leverage for the SEK is now 1:30.
Leverage for the CHF is now 1:30.
Now we wait to see what the CFTC will do.
Hit over a 100% growth in about a month and a half. Some key points over that period are the following:
I open a ton of trades… 400+ over this time period would probably be considered excessive by many.
High impact news days and days with central bank activity account for around half of the overall account growth. Some “gurus” sit out on these days and advise others to do the same… You miss out on a lot of profit doing this.
I have lost a lot of trades, only have a slight edge at a 57% win rate. However, only holding my average trade for 3 hrs, I have been able to move on from a losing position rather quickly.
My average win is only a few pips more the my average loss, this means you don’t need a high reward to risk ratio to do well. A 1:1 ratio does just fine.
My max drawdown so far has been 25%. I consider this a failure and am hoping the next period of doubling the account will see something under 15%.
I remember about 2 years or so ago the account was doubled in 4-5 months (I think, on the other thread). Now, doubled in 1 1/2 months? This is a really great progress… Good for you. It is clearly shown that it is possible. It will be interesting to see how much this account will grow for the rest of the year…
Keep it up!
[QUOTE=“PipNRoll;679297”] I remember about 2 years or so ago the account was doubled in 4-5 months (I think, on the other thread). Now, doubled in 1 1/2 months? This is a really great progress… Good for you. It is clearly shown that it is possible. It will be interesting to see how much this account will grow for the rest of the year… Keep it up![/QUOTE] Yeh… Different money management scheme but mostly the difference is probably due to the big moves the central banks are causing this month. Not as much volatility 2 years ago…
Yea, you are probably right. Quite a bit of volatility this month that I haven’t seen for a long time. So what type of money management style that you’ve change today or have done differently than 2 years ago? Do you feel that you have more confidence/trust in your trading style today than before or is it about the same but more experience/knowledge than before?
[QUOTE=“PipNRoll;679299”] Yea, you are probably right. Quite a bit of volatility this month that I haven’t seen for a long time. So what type of money management style that you’ve change today or have done differently than 2 years ago? Do you feel that you have more confidence/trust in your trading style today than before or is it about the same but more experience/knowledge than before?[/QUOTE]
The money management I was using on the account I was showing two years ago was small TPs with really large SLs. In doing so I had an extremely high win percentage but the few big losses would wipe out a lot of profit.
On this account I’m seeing what small TPs with an equal sized SL can do. My win ratio isn’t nearly as high… But I’m taking a whole lot more trades as in not getting stuck in positions for days on end as I was occasionally before.
Yep, I remember those 10 pips Tps 
for Dominos pizzas plus tips and delivery lol
Good. I know what you mean. I like holding trades for just a few hours. Even then I still have a lot of work to do.
Great thread, many useful information, I started to like fundamental analysis :32:
P.S
keep the information coming :57:
Alright guys… The NFA has reduced the allowable leverage for all US broker to 1:30 from 1:50 on all Aussie and yen pairs and it seems likely it will be doing the same for all of the majors shortly.
I’m in the process of trying to find where to direct complaints to regarding this issue, will update with the information when I find it.
[QUOTE=“GlobalMacro;678895”] Draghi came through with slightly more then what the general expectations were… I’d say the relief rally I was expecting may occur early next week after the Greek election results are in.[/QUOTE]
Alright. Greek elections came in about as expected… Political figures seem to have softened there tone and hopefully will be making some compromises going forward… As I alluded to last week with this post, I was thinking euro stages a rally this week and I’m still thinking that. At this point, the main bearish events are past us and with the currency being so over sold, it seems likely it will want to stage a rally… Maybe 200 pips or so. Unless something changes, I’ll be buying eurusd this week where I can.
I Think the EUR is still in a down trend , may be, a small correction but still down it will go ,the Greek election outcome support that, the Q.E. also support that , and I think no way the feds will cut rates on Wednesday,so EURUSD will stay in a down trend .
[QUOTE=“MAFAHMY;679819”]I Think the EUR is still in a down trend , may be, a small correction but still down it will go ,the Greek election outcome support that, the Q.E. also support that , and I think no way the feds will cut rates on Wednesday,so EURUSD will stay in a down trend .[/QUOTE] Definitely still in a HUGE downtrend. FOMC won’t be raising rates, like you said, and this probably should weaken the usd. We haven’t had a decent retrace in a LONG time… It could probably go up 400 pips while still technically being in a downtrend in the daily TF. It does look like parity is a possibility this year.
Parity , that will be something to watch ,you agree with me that the FOMC should raise rate but they will not !
[QUOTE=“MAFAHMY;679829”]Parity , that will be something to watch ,you agree with me that the FOMC should raise rate but they will not ![/QUOTE] yeh…not until we see more wage growth over the next few months. Wage growth signifies slack being removed from the labor market and currently there is plenty, even though our employment numbers have been good. I’m thinking they raise in September.