Trading discussion


gold previous resistance, nfp just came out, weakness on high vol confirmed, if a no demand pops out i ll short it

bad news for the Pound, which usually translates into a buying oportunity :smile:
specially when u have strenght in the background with low volume at resistance, and u wanna buy low u get bad news with high volume into a fib(smart money plan). so if the reaction is going to be a bulish 1 to that climactic vol into a previous support that lines up with a fib area and or ema etc(confluence) i ll be looking to buy the pound.
Screenshot by Lightshot
1 of the possible setups on pound pairs. ofc i have to take into account that today is friday, therefore it might range for the rest of the day, but u never know
PS> many price action traders will see that 1hr candle and sell that thinking it s gonna drop into mariana trench(i used to think that a few years back, which smtimes might be the case if u don t have high vol and a bullish reaction after, signifing that there s more buying then selling in there). this is another reason that the long setup might be in play cs it s gonna trap traders, take out theyr stops which will become buy orders adding even more fuel to the fire… sadly it s friday so the probability is less. if the reaction is gonna be lower prices then i d consider that agressive selling.
note to self> i don t have to trade today!!!

right on the money, what a nice friday :smile:

and a possible fake break on gold of the recent range, if this 1hr candle closes back into range then i d be looking for a short back to support of a no demand, upthrust, SOW. what s even better is that 4m ago we had dollar news(bad nrs actually) that drove the dollar up and subsequently pushing gold down as we know it s correlated negatively. had this marked on my chart before for a fake break of lows or highs, but whatever works :slight_smile:
Screenshot by Lightshot

update on gold


banked half, stop at BE. usually a fake break marks the end of the range and i d expect it to move lower, but with all the uncertainty this week( iran usa and trade wars) the market slowed down quite a bit. left some to run but doubt that it will late on friday.
nice week all in all


Gold to me looks like reaccumulation on the 1hr chart, with volume increasing of the lows, and a bullish reaction almost everytime they try to push price down. expecting a move into 1573 till 1583( fib from high to low) where sellers might show up).


ok, so we got to the 50 fib area. now what… well, volume suggests that shorts are still in play considering that the vol on the sell side outweights the buy side. therefore from monday on i d be looking to short gold untill something changes.

this is what i m gonna look for. it s friday, so people took some profit, there s also that area of weakness, high volume no follow thro. i m gonna look for a fake break of these highs created this weak as i know price likes to fake people long, take stops out and sell off after. and could also form a possible divergence at the first gap that we had few weeks back that could also act as resistance. a bunch of confluence plus the daily volume is quite high on the selling side. hopefully the 1 hr will agree and shorts wil be in play, if not we could consolidate or accumulate a bit more to move higher. whatever volume says.

i ll post some charts with simple support and resistance, trendlines in the coming weeks since i ll do more swing trading rather then intraday.
first pair that jumped on the radar would be CHFJPY.


weekly in an 1000 pip range, broke that weekly and daily trendline, broke daily resistance and retraced to it and made the first green candle which might signal we could be pushing upwards to resistance, and since i see it as an uptrend overall, i rather be buying then selling in the case of a break to the upside.

daily chart clearly imo an uptrend, first target ofc previous daily resistance, and then the weekly.

4hr chart, i ll wait for a pullback to the trendline, maybe a fib, ema etc(confluence) and i ll then get in when shows signs that wants to resume the trend. same thing for the 1 hr chart

another interesting pair that i ll defenetly watch is EURAUD. weekly range, daily range, wedge, broke the daily wedge and heading to that area of weekly resistance. since it s slowly building momentum to the upside and weekly to me is an uptrend, i ll watch it to see if i can get atleast a 1to1 risk to reward or 1 to 2 cos there s room, and leave a position on for a longer term view being finally breaking to the upside( aussie is linked to chinese economy and with the latest corona virus and all that stuff, it s very possible. ofc with the accent on the possible cos nothing is guaranted in trading




on the 4hr chart already had a nice clean entry, now it s close to that area of resistance and the risk of ranging or turning it around its far greater, so i ll just watch it for now

EURNZD


weekly range but it is putting in higher lows

daily broke the trendlines, and a good target would be weekly resistance

4hr chart hopefully will retrace soon and give me an entry at that previous resist turned support or even at the wedge trendline that got broken

EURUSD


weekly downtrend, daily trendline broken, retracing, i ll wait for a nice red daily candle closing lower and then look for a setup(pullback)on 4hr or 1hr to target daily lows and maybe even weekly lows, cos it seems poised to go down atleast for now untill something changes

GBPCAD
weekly range, daily broke from that small consolidation and did a pullback already, looks like its heading to that weekly resistance, so a nice retracement on the 4hr chart to that trendline and the previous resist turned support would make for a nice entry, plenty of room to target atleast twice the risk or even 3 times imo.


looks possible to break also that nice weekly trendline, so if that happens we could have a nice up move. time will tell.

and that weekly down trendline matches up with 4hr resist that could be future support if price retraces and doesn t shoots upwards, so that adds even more confluence to the bias.

GBPAUD
nice weekly uptrend, broke previous resist and retraced to it, now pushing up



broke the previous daily high, a nice pullback on the 4hr would be a nice entry, or 1hr, and enough room to target for a nice risk!reward ratio

XAUUSD


my favorite commodity and pair u could say since it s pegged to the dollar. monthly, weekly, daily uptrend, 4hr and 1hr wedge, it s consolidating, waiting on a break. i d rather buy from a swing trade point of view since higher timeframes are all pointing upwards, but for a day trade even a nice 1hr setup to target previous lows can do… all depends where is gonna break on the 1hr.
there are some other pairs to watch that are ranging and are at support or resist etc, but since there are nice clear trending pairs i don t wanna bother with ranges. we ll see what next week will bring but should have some nice options.

@insane do u have a favorite pair or instrument that you wanna take a look at?

@1odi Ok, already some questions. Aren’t you afraid to put such a small stop loss? I mean, wouldn’t banks make a pullback especially for you then let the pair simply move in your forecasted direction? Is a fear of mine, that somehow even the use of a stop-loss less than 100 pips (even 300, lol), may get you stop hunted. It’s psychology stuff I guess.

so first thing s first, no more selling AUSSIE SWISS, this is a common mistake i used to do a in the beggining, reversing positions. i think it s gonna go up and reverse or atleast get a daily pullback, but to move a bit it will have to range(accumulate longs). so it s not a good idea to sell cos u just bought and u lost.
second, u never ever sell near a support or buy near a resistance, specially if they are daily or weekly.
third, whenever u get into a trend, the more waves it has the lower the odds ur trade is gonna work out, so catchinga trend early stages would be ideal, and by early stages i do not mean buy the red candles.
u said u use divergence, i don t really know what else u use to make your analisys, but pls choose a pair, draw horizontal support and resistance on all timeframes, and printscreen each tmf and post it here . i want to see how u do that just to make sure were on the same page

This are my trading ideas. Looks like the longterm trends can be extended.

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ok, so when i m swing trading(which to me using the 1hr chart and above means) i try to put my stop in a place where if it gets hit, my bias is no longer valid. not all trades work out, every1 losses, but how u manage ur losses and how u manage ur winners will be monumental for ur account. all i m sharing here! saying is common knowledge, i haven t invented any of this, is what i read from books, seminars and videos on utube to be honest. what i know works for me and is quite simple, plus there are ohers u can foloow along that i know are profitable just using simple support resist, trendlines test, restest etc.

I didn’t imply I will go trading with real money (this losses are enough, lol), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the AUD even weaker. Just my trading ideas.