Hey, there is someone who trade events, news? i would like to know how can i spot the most relevant news ? what is your best news events?
I would strongly recommend using Forex Factory and filtering for High Impact News events (Red Folder) and focus on USD as the currency. This will affect the Indices along with FX pairs.
Please be cautious when trading news events and recommend waiting 30 mins after the news is released to analyse the price action appropriately.
Unless your trading model is present and you use risk management, then good luck and good trading friend.
thank you
let go to work
To spot it in advance, it is here (column near the left side shows currencies for which news can be relevant)
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thank you a lot
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Hey Daniel, so the rule of thumb is this…
If it matters for the central bank, it matters for markets.
Meaning that the ONLY data that REALLY matters is the one that “moves the needle” for the central bank in question.
So if we are looking at the Dollar for instance we need to know what the Federal Reserve is looking at to decide whether to hike, cut, or stay on hold with their interest rate.
That’s the variable that matters.
And that’s what decides whether an economic number is able to start a trend or not.
But let me give you an example…
As you probably know, inflation has been on the FED’s radar for quite a few years now.
So every deviation there matters!
In fact, that’s the type of number that ends up starting trends (when it surprises expectations).
For instance:
It’s a bit of an old example because it’s from April 2024, but it’s perfect to show you how this works.
As traders what we care about is the “tradable” opportunity of an economic number, right?!
Yes.
And the difference between the data that starts trends, and the data that just creates random up and down spikes is simple:
If something matters for the central bank, it’s going to shape the sentiments and trends up to the central bank rate decision thereafter.
While instead the rest of the data (the one that doesn’t move the needle for the central bank at that moment in time) can still move markets in the very short term, but then is likely to run out of steam as the market pivots back to the main story.
Makes sense?
Let me show you another (more recent) example.
About a week ago we got the CPI from Switzerland:
And guess what?!
It started a trend, why?
Basically, to give you some context…
About a month ago, the SNB made waves by surprising expectations (25bps cut expected) and instead cutting rates by 50bps:
Ok, that in and of itself tells us how serious the Swiss National Bank is about dealing with inflation in Switzerland.
And now, this latest CPI print comes in even weaker, 0.7% YoY, below the forecast of 0.8% and much lower than the previous reading of 0.9%.
For us traders, this sets the context for further CHF weakness, why?
Because rate cuts weaken a currency, and if inflation in Switzerland is coming out AGAIN lower than expected, the SNB needs to cut rates further, that’s a flashing signal for further CHF weakness.
And that’s what makes the difference!
Trends and trading opportunities are created when something happens that’s going to shape how the central bank is going to move.
I’ve traded exactly that in this thread:
So here’s the matter…
When a closely (by the central bank) looked economic number prints outside of expectations, that’s when you have to pay attention.
Because that’s when there’s usually a trend to ride out of it.
Because if a random economic number that the central bank doesn’t care about prints even double what’s expected, it doesn’t matter!
Literally, if the central bank doesn’t care about it, then the market doesn’t care about it, or in other word… when it matters for the central bank, it matters for markets.
In fact, keep a VERY close eye on the upcoming CPI from the US tomorrow, that number is being looked at by everyone at the Federal Reserve to decide what to do next, so that’s the type of number that if it surprises expectations it can start a meaningful trend in the Dollar 
If you have any questions, feel free to ask.
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