I totally agree! It is not the entry that makes the money at all, it is where you get out that counts. I remember quoting you last year when you said: “The entry makes the trade but the exit makes the money” That is about as close to a “universal truth” as one will get in trading!
It is certainly not an easy job! One approach could be with an EMA band like in these sample pics. This is a bit tongue-in-cheek as most traders nowadays would probably trash the idea without even looking at it!
Here are the SP500 and EU daily charts. The red rings highlight a pullback because the twin ribbons have not changed sides. But the green rings show a reversal. The horizontal green lines on the SP500 show how and where a stoploss could be progressively moved as the trend evolves.
I have actually found this particular chart quite useful but, as I mentioned earlier, the distances to stops and the time to reach a target do not suit my style to actually use them as “standalone” trade charts:
My theory here is that an MA can show the evolving direction and strength of a trend. So if price starts to cross below (above) the MA then it suggests that the trend is exhausting. But the question is how far does price have to move in order to be significant regarding a pullback or reversal. And that is where the EMA band has some value as shown here.
One method that I use is to set the same chart setup on both higher and lower timeframe and watch the lower TF to dictate when and if price returns to the previous trend - or starts a reversal.
Naturally, this is not sufficient as it stands as it only defines a possible pullback v. reversal. It also requires a means for identifying profit targets. It is not intended as a crossover system at all. Horses for courses, as it were!
I should add that I have not found this same setup to be reliable on intraday charts at all, but my trading chart setup is not so very different in concept. Yep, I’m just a very old-fashioned retro-trader…