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551

I’m reviewing charts and I see moves that I wish I had caught. However, even though they were very nice swings, the entry signal doesn’t match my strategy.

This is where I start to confuse myself and start to compromise my strategy.

I feel guilty for missing swings. I think “where was I??”

But if the entry signal was not valid, then I shouldn’t feel any regret. Because if I start taking invalid signals, I’ll be taking bad trades. The key is sticking to my strategy.

Again and again.

Not sticking to my strategy is self-sabotage.

552

In general, I would agree with you, but you also say:

If these are moves that are of the kind that you are trying to catch with your current strategy then would it not be appropriate to take a pragmatic look at the elements in your strategy and see is something needs tweaking or removing? or maybe it is lacking something else?

You mentioned that you have already been removing some MA’s, which suggests you perhaps currently have less than 100% confidence in your present set-up?

Surely, the starting point for any strategy is that the market is always “right”. It cannot be “wrong”. So if the strategy is not catching the moves it has been built for then it needs an overhaul.

On the other hand there are always moves that one wishes one could have caught but they do not fit our trading plan, or choice of instruments, and therefore are not an issue as such. For example, an intraday scalper might see a lovely long trend lasting weeks but it is not within his trading plan to ride it - and we just have to accept those! :smiley:

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553

This is more the case with me. My desperation/impatience still lurks.

That’s why I wish I caught those swings, even though they didn’t match my strategy.

And when I’m back testing, I have to be honest that I WILL NOT catch every swing.

That’s the part that’s bothering me. But I just gotta let it go.

Catching one good swing is better than losing on three.

I’m confident in the strategy, but my problem is following it.
However, I get distraced by MAs. I can’t focus on two things at the same time. So, I’m gonna focus on price action instead of indicators.

It makes more sense to me. This will bring a bit more clarity to my focus and strategy execution.

In the past I had two strategies: MA bounces and price action. I think both are plausible strategies, but price action backtested much better.

I’m narrowing my focus and trying to maximize my strategy.

Centimeter by centimeter…

554

Excellent progress! :slight_smile:

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556

I’ve reached a point where I have to humble myself. If I don’t humble myself now, I’ll never pull the profits that I want.

I’ve been trading loads of pairs. And it seems that my brain is overloaded with information.

So, I’m planning to take a step back, reduce how many pairs I follow, and just take my time.

My first problem with that is that my trading time could be reduced to less than an hour. Which is very strange for me. But, I’m so desperate that I must be willing to not behave desperately.

And for me, that means trading less.

Right now I have over 10 trades in profit, but in the meantime I’m taking losses and my account is slowly going down. So, it’s time for me to take a step back and reassess.

If I’m being totally honest, instead of trading so many pairs like I am now…I could have followed just five pairs, taken five trades a month, and be in a way more profitable position. Actually, if I had even just three good trades a MONTH, following the same three pairs, I’d be better off.

So, why don’t I do that now? Why haven’t I done that in the past?

Greed.

I thought by trading more I’d be increasing my profits. Why have one horse in a race, if you can have 12?

The problem with that idea is that there’s a lot of information to keep track of. An excel spreadsheet can fix that. And it did. But when you lose 8 different trades on 8 different pairs, and then you’re reviewing other setups at the same time, it can get overwhelming to juggle.

And after that many losses, you get scared and reduce the risk or just stay out entirely. Then the next day you see that you should have taken that trade, and now it’s too late.

I’ve been chasing my tail, and now it’s time to go back to scratch.

I’m not sure how I’ll manage the selection just yet. I’ll figure something out.

And what’s a trader’s first step in going back to scratch?

Watching the Last Dragon, of course.
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557

I was just digging around on babypips and found this

558

Today I saw a couple of trades that I wish I had taken. But, I had to remember that the reason I didn’t was because I was reaching my risk limit and didn’t want to exceed it.

I just have to remember that even though I WANT to catch every trade, it doesn’t mean that I SHOULD.

I always have to keep in mind “what if I’m wrong?”

559

I opened just a few positions today.

I feel pretty good that I got to move some SLs to BE.
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I’m taking my time a little bit more. Trying to pay a bit more attention to what’s happening in the trade. What the chart is trying to tell me.

It’s going better. It’s all about baby steps. Thanks, Dr Marvin.

Another thing I’m noticing is that some pairs just don’t match certain strategies.

I thought I had eliminated all the pairs that don’t match my strategy. But there are actually a couple stragglers. I took a trade, and it was in the red by just a little.

I zoomed out and realized I probably shouldn’t be trading it at the moment. So, I closed the trade at a loss.

It was a small loss. Better than getting stopped out. I have to remember patience.

Yesterday, I started getting curious about CFDs. Apparently, they’re illegal in the USA. So, that leaves me with futures trading.

I’m interested in getting familiar with it. I opened a demo account, just to mess around and see how the charts look with these instruments.

560

I closed some trades today. AUD turned against me. It wasn’t so bad because I moved my SLs to BE.

However, I had several trades doing well two days ago. It was a very nice profit. However, some prices have reversed or started doing questionable things. Which, I couldn’t have known until after the fact.

I could have closed a few days ago with a very nice profit, but it would have been an emotional decision, not a strategic one.

However, it would have been a profitable decision. So, which is right?

Do I close because there’s a nice profit I don’t want to lose, even though there’s no exit signal and the exit seems totally premature?

I suppose this is live and learn. But, if I had closed based on my emotion, I’d have more money right now.

According to my backtest, I did the right thing. But it sure doesn’t feel like it.

You can only take what the market gives. What if the market gives you a nice profit, then does something unexpected, and you lose it?

Do you wanna be right or profitable?

My strategy tells me to hold on, and don’t close yet; just let the trade work itself out for better or worse.

It just sucks when you see your profits drop and it’s not a simple retracement to withstand.

So, right now the market’s moving, and I’m expecting an entry signal in some pairs perhaps tomorrow.

The worse thing for me to do right now is to start chasing trades. So, I checked on my open trades and the additional three or so pairs I’m watching. I didn’t check the remaining pairs on my watchlist because if my trades went against me, then everything else is moving in a similar fashion and any entry signals I would see now would actually be false signals.

I’m not gonna bother. Time to just sit on my hands. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

561

The weird thing is that, this isn’t the first time my gut was telling me to close.

My spidey-sense starts tingling, and it tells me to close. However, there’s no method to it.

I look at my profits and I think “wow that’s nice.” And my guy tells me to just close everything and keep my profits.

But then the logical side tells me that getting another entry could be difficult and it’s not worth it to close yet because price could continue in this direction. Besides that, it’s not even a strategic exit.

So, I gotta think about letting a trade play out vs just closing because my gut says so.

562

One good thing to come of this is that I can see some light in the darkness. My entries and not nonsense. The strategy works.

Another good thing is that I exercised SL management and that helped me protect my capital. So, although I didn’t move forward, I didn’t fall backwards badly. I only had a few losses. But nothing major. I’m definitely still in the game.

I’m gonna be optimistic and look at the bright side that my strategy works in real time! I’m gonna keep moving forward!!!

563

Good post. I found myself in this position last year or late 2020. In my experience this is the difference between a “backtested result” and an actual result. I did backtesting a few months ago on a series of data that showed a 65% win/loss ratio and was so convinced that this would work forwards I bought six crypto currencies that exhibited the same setups against BTC. No stop losses, expected profit > 10% in < 1 month. I had a rule that said “is the entry still valid if I had entered today?” When the answer was “NO” three days on a row, I bailed out of all of them for a 3.5% loss. When I went back and reanalyzed the short period of “forward testing” within the longer period backtest results, I realized that I was being subjective about the entry criteria from the OHLC data timeframe I was analyzing, and that didn’t actually match the live entries I had made. Long story short, and it cost me hours and hours of analysis - perhaps 24 hours in total - I had to throw away all the analysis and start over again. That is when I decide to use a simpler plan on setup, entry, management and exit criteria. And sadly, after that and a few automated backtests earlier, I lost my patience, and looked at a far wider timescale - one to three months. Things got better, and then NFTs came along to catch my attention. Maybe one day we will all find times to analyze everything on earth.

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564

I actually did the same exact thing!! Haha
But this time I collected the screen shots for review anytime I want.

I got the same results as my previous analysis that this strategy was good. Buy I got a deeper look with a few minor tweeks that make a big difference.

And after analyzing these trades, I found another small tweek. Not something that changes the strategy, either! But something that enhances it. That’s the exciting part.

I used to find details that altered the strategy. Then, I found details that would change it back. That’s when it’s time to go back to scratch.

By the way, one of the fixes to my losses was to zoom out to W1 and adjust my inaccurate trend line.

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565

For the past couple months I’ve been wanting to put more time into studying but didn’t know exactly what to do.

Sure I could backtest more, but I had already done that, and I didn’t want to just do more of the same thing because it doesn’t teach my anything different.

But now, I found something I could study more of: breakouts and consolidation patterns.

I studied swings already. And my recent losses showed me the next thing to examine.

In the past when I examined my trades, I would make a change. Then after the following week’s analysis, I’d go back to that change. Just going in circles.

But now, instead of adding clay to my sculpture, I’m scraping it away. I’m happy about this direction, and it feels like real progress.

Now, I have to ask myself a question about my last couple trades: would I prefer the profits, or the new knowledge from the loss.

I hate to say it, but I honestly gotta say I prefer the loss with the knowledge, because the knowledge will turn into consistent profits—as opposed to a one-time payment.

566

When I backtest, I see the same signals over and over. The problem is that they happen when you don’t expect it.

You’re trying to understand what you’re seeing, and your brain is trying to figure out a way to be ready.

“Ok, I think price is gonna do this. So, that’s what I’m gonna prepare for.”

And then when it doesn’t happen when you think it should happen, it confuses you. Now you don’t know what to do. Then a slightly different thing happens, you’re not expecting that, and you miss it or you’re in disbelief.

I think this is what happens to me. So, I’m working on ways to help specifically with that.

Also, I started deleting some slow-moving pairs. If they’re not volatile, they’re not worth trading. And I can’t afford to give my attention to something that will offer little/no opportunities.

These are moves in the same direction, for me.

567

Today and yesterday, I didn’t take many trades. Just two or so, just in case.

The yen is retracing for now, I think. I’m not sure what it’s doing. I think it’s still trending.

The best thing for me to do right now is just to wait. Stay on the sidelines and be patient.

I missed a giant upswing in several JPY crosses. Actually, I was short CAD/JPY, and had trouble seeing the possibility of going long.

I took some time to analyze my errors. And I definitely need to study consolidation.

I’m taking time now to study charts and decide what I need to do going forward.

It’s not a good feeling to miss out on such a huge swing. But you gotta let it go and move forward.

There will always be more trades.

For now, I took a couple GBP trades. Other than that, I’m just gonna keep studying and figuring out how I can catch unexpected moves better, and not get stuck in my expected outcome.

568

For the last two days, I was watching JPY crosses. Waiting for a reversal. Also, I’ve been upset with myself for missing such a huge upswing. All the JPY crosses.

So, with that on my mind, I’ve been waiting for the reversal. But when I didn’t see it, I went back to bed. “There’s no point. Everything is still trending. May as well just go back to bed.”

For two days, I was in a bad state of mind for trading because of my regret/disappointment.

I’ve been ignoring everything else in the market. I was pretty upset, and decided it was better to stay out of the market if I’m emotional.

I go back to my complete routine this morning and check up on my other pairs. Of course, I missed entry signals on some EUR pairs.

Now, I’m feeling twice the guilt. I stayed out of the market because I was overwhelmed by my emotions (frustration, confusion, overwhelmed).

And now I’m feeling worse because I missed entry signals that would have made me feel better.

I need to just keep patient and wait for entry signals.

No desperate trading.

I placed some trades with JPY, but limited trades because the huge wicks are suspect. I think there could still be some bullish momentum with JPY crosses. So, I took a couple JPY trades just in case they turn bearish.

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569

I’m not going to execute my strategy perfectly. I think I have to keep that in mind.

It’s a process. As long as I’m learning from my mistakes, I shouldn’t go crazy.

I guess I do put pressure on myself, and it contributes to frustration.

But I’m getting better. I recently had some nice profits. I lost most of it because I didn’t close. But that means I’m on the right track.

And thats’s a good sign. It’s enough to keep me going. And when I finally get it right…LOOK OUT!!

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570

I’m realizing how much I procrastinate.

It’s not something I like. I’d like to be a person who can just work work work.

But I think that’s not me.

I do forex for 30 minutes at a time. Sometimes, I’ll go for 45 minutes. Usually, though, the routine is forex for 30 minutes, 10 minute break. Repeat.

Lately, that 10 minute break has been stretching for 20 or even 30 minutes.

Now, I’m not happy about it. I’ve been trying to understand why I procrastinate.

This time, I decided to be fair to myself rather than just look for a remedy right away.

I live alone. My life is quite isolated. I’m away from my friends and family. I don’t really go anywhere or do anything.

This is by choice. I made this choice to isolate myself in order to focus on my personal development. And it has immensely helped. Yet there are pros and cons to everything.

And I think trying to work too hard over long periods can burn you out. However, you CAN keep up a strong pace over long distances.

So, to be fair, I’ve been maintaining this isolated lifestyle for the past several years. Sometimes, it’s boring, and I’d rather be doing something fun rather than working.

I hear stories of people working hard and grinding for hours and hours.

But, I doubt even Warren Buffet sits in a room alone and reads for 12 hours straight.

When I hear about highly effective people who work hard, I have no idea what that really means. Does Jeff Bezos work alone on his computer doing research for 14 hours straight? Just bathroom breaks and that’s it?

Does he take a break for lunch? How about stretching his legs out and walking around his office for 3 or 4 minutes? Does he ever need some fresh air and just goes outside for 20 minutes?

I have no clue.

Perhaps, he does. I don’t know. For now, if I’m procrastinating, it’s ok. I’ve been showing up and trading everyday for the past couple years. And I’ve been consistent with my isolated lifestyle for several years.

I should give myself some credit for showing up consistently. For me, that is my grind: showing uo and doing my trading every day. Sure, with less breaks I could be done 30-45 minutes sooner, but those breaks allow my brain to relax and get ready for another bout.

I’m working on taking more controlled breaks. But, I’m not gonna beat myself up over this one. It’s tough isolating yourself and keep going.

I have no interest in changing my path until I reach my goal. There will be set backs and advances. As long as I keep showing up, that’s a plus.

571

I just finished my work for the day. My goal was to update/review all my W1 charts. I finished it exactly on schedule. Now, I can relax, eat dinner and go to bed.

My charts had so many drawings on them, plus MAs. I got rid of all those on my D1 charts, but not the W1. It felt like spring cleaning.

It’s been long enough since I checked my W1 charts. I thought maybe I could save time by just updating my TLs on D1. Nope. Zooming out really helps seeing the bigger picture.

I have one trade with CNH as the base currency: USD/CNH. I really like how it moves, however, it requires such a large margin. I’m realizing that the money I used for CNH trades could be put to more profitable use in other currencies. So, no more CNH base currency trades. I’m gonna ride this one out for the first upswing on W1 (hopefully), and after that I’ll be saying goodbye to CNH.

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