Trading journal

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
546

The last two weeks haven’t been so great, trading wise.

My profits were holding steady, but my account balance has been dropping. My risk management has been good.

However, I’ve been taking bad trades apparently. I told myself to take more trades. And I have.

But for my strategy. The market has been less tradeable.

At the same time, I saw a trade that I didn’t pay attention to the details and I should have closed, but now it’s retracing, and now I’m in “hope” mode that it’s only retracing and not reversing. Which is no good.

I took a MA bounce trade Monday morning. Price broke thru. I thought it would go bullish, but it turned bearish and was moving fast. So, I put about 0.5% risk. And then shortly after, I added another 0.5% risk. Then price pulled back quickly within the same hour, and I got stopped out.

First of all, that’s not even my strategy. I just jumped in because price was moving and I wanted in.

That was my last straw. I got desperate and traded something I wasn’t supposed to.

Into the cold shower I went.

I’m starting to feel burned out, to be honest.

I checked on my trades this morning, and decided to just go back to sleep for a while.

I’m looking at some charts now. I’m realising that right now, it’s mostly not tradeable. The best thing to do is to wait. Just take a look and see what’s going on. But DO NOT trade. My strategy doesn’t fit right now for most of these pairs.

That’s probably why I’m taking so many losses. I’m losing patience and taking trades that I should be taking.

There’s just two trades I’m watching carefully. Other than that, there’s nothing going on for me. So, I just gotta stop being desperate, and just wait.

I’m here, feeling frustrated that my trades are going against me, and I don’t understand what’s going on with the market.

I lost EUR/USD, then missed a trade due to disbelief.

I learned from analysing my losses last month that I have to take more trades. But I have to keep in mind that it means takes appropriate signals.

I need to pay more attention to details in price action, rather than just glancing over it. Also, be more patient—not desperate.

If the market’s not tradeable, the thing to do it wait—not lie to myself and justify bad trades that are losing trades before I even take them.

It doesn’t mean I’m wrong if I’m not trading. The more PROFITABLE thing to do is just wait. Not losing money on bad trades is the next best thing to earning money.

547

I’m realizing that the reason I didn’t do so well recently, is that my style doesn’t fit the current market.

Perhaps I’m just repeating… I probably am.

But if a trade doesn’t go well, and I enteted at the right time, it just means that my strategy doesn’t apply to what that pair is doing at that moment.

What I did wrong was change my strategy to fit what the market was doing. And I was wrong because I employed an unprofitable strategy out of desperation.

But I shouldn’t blame myself for the market doing something that doesn’t fit my strategy. It’s inappropriate to blame myself for what the market does. That’s unhealthy because all those negative thoughts will discourage me when I see an actual trade signal.

548

I look at these charts and I think “I should have done this…I should have done that.”

That doesn’t help. What does help is that I learn from it. A big signal for me is when a candle retests the previous candle’s low/high. But sometimes, I don’t notice it. I have to develop a habit of paying attention to things like that.

549

I’m studying some charts. I see a trade from mid-October that I should have taken. If I did nothing all year, and just waited for that one trade, I’d be waaay ahead.

So, I supose my solution is to keep following my strategy, and be patient.

I have to be willing to not trade for a month. If there’s no signal, then there’s no trade. Lately, I’ve been forcing trades. I think it’s due to desperation and also the need to FEEL busy. And I think it’s faulty thinking. Being busy trading doesn’t equal profits. There’s no trade, trade, trade. That philosophy will deplete my account. The grind, for me, comes from waking up at the same time, everyday, checking the charts and trading ONLY when I see a signal.

The grind isn’t in the trade—it’s in the routine of watching the charts. That’s something I have to keep in mind.

The profits aren’t in loads of trades, for me. The profits are in waiting. If I take a signal, and price does something unexpected, that’s ok. Not trading more, but more accurately; with more patience.

This will be key for me.

550

Since I started, I’ve really enjoyed my MAs.

But there have been moments I’ve felt betrayed. Or, distracted, more like it.

I’m actually starting to delete MAs from my charts. I don’t know if it’s good or bad, but there is a part of me that feels kinda relieved.

However, I have seen lots of trades that work with MAs. I’m quite on yje fence about it.

I’m sure I’ll figure something out.

551

I’m reviewing charts and I see moves that I wish I had caught. However, even though they were very nice swings, the entry signal doesn’t match my strategy.

This is where I start to confuse myself and start to compromise my strategy.

I feel guilty for missing swings. I think “where was I??”

But if the entry signal was not valid, then I shouldn’t feel any regret. Because if I start taking invalid signals, I’ll be taking bad trades. The key is sticking to my strategy.

Again and again.

Not sticking to my strategy is self-sabotage.

552

In general, I would agree with you, but you also say:

If these are moves that are of the kind that you are trying to catch with your current strategy then would it not be appropriate to take a pragmatic look at the elements in your strategy and see is something needs tweaking or removing? or maybe it is lacking something else?

You mentioned that you have already been removing some MA’s, which suggests you perhaps currently have less than 100% confidence in your present set-up?

Surely, the starting point for any strategy is that the market is always “right”. It cannot be “wrong”. So if the strategy is not catching the moves it has been built for then it needs an overhaul.

On the other hand there are always moves that one wishes one could have caught but they do not fit our trading plan, or choice of instruments, and therefore are not an issue as such. For example, an intraday scalper might see a lovely long trend lasting weeks but it is not within his trading plan to ride it - and we just have to accept those! :smiley:

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553

This is more the case with me. My desperation/impatience still lurks.

That’s why I wish I caught those swings, even though they didn’t match my strategy.

And when I’m back testing, I have to be honest that I WILL NOT catch every swing.

That’s the part that’s bothering me. But I just gotta let it go.

Catching one good swing is better than losing on three.

I’m confident in the strategy, but my problem is following it.
However, I get distraced by MAs. I can’t focus on two things at the same time. So, I’m gonna focus on price action instead of indicators.

It makes more sense to me. This will bring a bit more clarity to my focus and strategy execution.

In the past I had two strategies: MA bounces and price action. I think both are plausible strategies, but price action backtested much better.

I’m narrowing my focus and trying to maximize my strategy.

Centimeter by centimeter…

554

Excellent progress! :slight_smile:

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556

I’ve reached a point where I have to humble myself. If I don’t humble myself now, I’ll never pull the profits that I want.

I’ve been trading loads of pairs. And it seems that my brain is overloaded with information.

So, I’m planning to take a step back, reduce how many pairs I follow, and just take my time.

My first problem with that is that my trading time could be reduced to less than an hour. Which is very strange for me. But, I’m so desperate that I must be willing to not behave desperately.

And for me, that means trading less.

Right now I have over 10 trades in profit, but in the meantime I’m taking losses and my account is slowly going down. So, it’s time for me to take a step back and reassess.

If I’m being totally honest, instead of trading so many pairs like I am now…I could have followed just five pairs, taken five trades a month, and be in a way more profitable position. Actually, if I had even just three good trades a MONTH, following the same three pairs, I’d be better off.

So, why don’t I do that now? Why haven’t I done that in the past?

Greed.

I thought by trading more I’d be increasing my profits. Why have one horse in a race, if you can have 12?

The problem with that idea is that there’s a lot of information to keep track of. An excel spreadsheet can fix that. And it did. But when you lose 8 different trades on 8 different pairs, and then you’re reviewing other setups at the same time, it can get overwhelming to juggle.

And after that many losses, you get scared and reduce the risk or just stay out entirely. Then the next day you see that you should have taken that trade, and now it’s too late.

I’ve been chasing my tail, and now it’s time to go back to scratch.

I’m not sure how I’ll manage the selection just yet. I’ll figure something out.

And what’s a trader’s first step in going back to scratch?

Watching the Last Dragon, of course.
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557

I was just digging around on babypips and found this

558

Today I saw a couple of trades that I wish I had taken. But, I had to remember that the reason I didn’t was because I was reaching my risk limit and didn’t want to exceed it.

I just have to remember that even though I WANT to catch every trade, it doesn’t mean that I SHOULD.

I always have to keep in mind “what if I’m wrong?”

559

I opened just a few positions today.

I feel pretty good that I got to move some SLs to BE.
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I’m taking my time a little bit more. Trying to pay a bit more attention to what’s happening in the trade. What the chart is trying to tell me.

It’s going better. It’s all about baby steps. Thanks, Dr Marvin.

Another thing I’m noticing is that some pairs just don’t match certain strategies.

I thought I had eliminated all the pairs that don’t match my strategy. But there are actually a couple stragglers. I took a trade, and it was in the red by just a little.

I zoomed out and realized I probably shouldn’t be trading it at the moment. So, I closed the trade at a loss.

It was a small loss. Better than getting stopped out. I have to remember patience.

Yesterday, I started getting curious about CFDs. Apparently, they’re illegal in the USA. So, that leaves me with futures trading.

I’m interested in getting familiar with it. I opened a demo account, just to mess around and see how the charts look with these instruments.

560

I closed some trades today. AUD turned against me. It wasn’t so bad because I moved my SLs to BE.

However, I had several trades doing well two days ago. It was a very nice profit. However, some prices have reversed or started doing questionable things. Which, I couldn’t have known until after the fact.

I could have closed a few days ago with a very nice profit, but it would have been an emotional decision, not a strategic one.

However, it would have been a profitable decision. So, which is right?

Do I close because there’s a nice profit I don’t want to lose, even though there’s no exit signal and the exit seems totally premature?

I suppose this is live and learn. But, if I had closed based on my emotion, I’d have more money right now.

According to my backtest, I did the right thing. But it sure doesn’t feel like it.

You can only take what the market gives. What if the market gives you a nice profit, then does something unexpected, and you lose it?

Do you wanna be right or profitable?

My strategy tells me to hold on, and don’t close yet; just let the trade work itself out for better or worse.

It just sucks when you see your profits drop and it’s not a simple retracement to withstand.

So, right now the market’s moving, and I’m expecting an entry signal in some pairs perhaps tomorrow.

The worse thing for me to do right now is to start chasing trades. So, I checked on my open trades and the additional three or so pairs I’m watching. I didn’t check the remaining pairs on my watchlist because if my trades went against me, then everything else is moving in a similar fashion and any entry signals I would see now would actually be false signals.

I’m not gonna bother. Time to just sit on my hands. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

561

The weird thing is that, this isn’t the first time my gut was telling me to close.

My spidey-sense starts tingling, and it tells me to close. However, there’s no method to it.

I look at my profits and I think “wow that’s nice.” And my guy tells me to just close everything and keep my profits.

But then the logical side tells me that getting another entry could be difficult and it’s not worth it to close yet because price could continue in this direction. Besides that, it’s not even a strategic exit.

So, I gotta think about letting a trade play out vs just closing because my gut says so.

562

One good thing to come of this is that I can see some light in the darkness. My entries and not nonsense. The strategy works.

Another good thing is that I exercised SL management and that helped me protect my capital. So, although I didn’t move forward, I didn’t fall backwards badly. I only had a few losses. But nothing major. I’m definitely still in the game.

I’m gonna be optimistic and look at the bright side that my strategy works in real time! I’m gonna keep moving forward!!!

563

Good post. I found myself in this position last year or late 2020. In my experience this is the difference between a “backtested result” and an actual result. I did backtesting a few months ago on a series of data that showed a 65% win/loss ratio and was so convinced that this would work forwards I bought six crypto currencies that exhibited the same setups against BTC. No stop losses, expected profit > 10% in < 1 month. I had a rule that said “is the entry still valid if I had entered today?” When the answer was “NO” three days on a row, I bailed out of all of them for a 3.5% loss. When I went back and reanalyzed the short period of “forward testing” within the longer period backtest results, I realized that I was being subjective about the entry criteria from the OHLC data timeframe I was analyzing, and that didn’t actually match the live entries I had made. Long story short, and it cost me hours and hours of analysis - perhaps 24 hours in total - I had to throw away all the analysis and start over again. That is when I decide to use a simpler plan on setup, entry, management and exit criteria. And sadly, after that and a few automated backtests earlier, I lost my patience, and looked at a far wider timescale - one to three months. Things got better, and then NFTs came along to catch my attention. Maybe one day we will all find times to analyze everything on earth.

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564

I actually did the same exact thing!! Haha
But this time I collected the screen shots for review anytime I want.

I got the same results as my previous analysis that this strategy was good. Buy I got a deeper look with a few minor tweeks that make a big difference.

And after analyzing these trades, I found another small tweek. Not something that changes the strategy, either! But something that enhances it. That’s the exciting part.

I used to find details that altered the strategy. Then, I found details that would change it back. That’s when it’s time to go back to scratch.

By the way, one of the fixes to my losses was to zoom out to W1 and adjust my inaccurate trend line.

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565

For the past couple months I’ve been wanting to put more time into studying but didn’t know exactly what to do.

Sure I could backtest more, but I had already done that, and I didn’t want to just do more of the same thing because it doesn’t teach my anything different.

But now, I found something I could study more of: breakouts and consolidation patterns.

I studied swings already. And my recent losses showed me the next thing to examine.

In the past when I examined my trades, I would make a change. Then after the following week’s analysis, I’d go back to that change. Just going in circles.

But now, instead of adding clay to my sculpture, I’m scraping it away. I’m happy about this direction, and it feels like real progress.

Now, I have to ask myself a question about my last couple trades: would I prefer the profits, or the new knowledge from the loss.

I hate to say it, but I honestly gotta say I prefer the loss with the knowledge, because the knowledge will turn into consistent profits—as opposed to a one-time payment.

566

When I backtest, I see the same signals over and over. The problem is that they happen when you don’t expect it.

You’re trying to understand what you’re seeing, and your brain is trying to figure out a way to be ready.

“Ok, I think price is gonna do this. So, that’s what I’m gonna prepare for.”

And then when it doesn’t happen when you think it should happen, it confuses you. Now you don’t know what to do. Then a slightly different thing happens, you’re not expecting that, and you miss it or you’re in disbelief.

I think this is what happens to me. So, I’m working on ways to help specifically with that.

Also, I started deleting some slow-moving pairs. If they’re not volatile, they’re not worth trading. And I can’t afford to give my attention to something that will offer little/no opportunities.

These are moves in the same direction, for me.