I forget who, but another member suggested I try H4 if I want more immediate profits.
The last few days, I’ve started to think about it…
But H4 has so much more noise.
If I were to trade H4, I’d have to figure out which pairs best suit my strategy.
I kinda don’t even wanna think about it. It scares me because I’ve taken so many losses to learn.
I could try it in demo and find out if it’s for me or not.
So, the trade that I got stopped out, and I was reluctant to take it again…I was right.
The first stop out was a false signal, but the second one was real.
I’m dealing with the fear of taking losses. I’ve said that my strategy could be wrong as many as three times. But when I take the right signal, it’s worth it.
I have to try trusting my strategy more, and allow myself to be wrong.
I had a few trades that I had high expectations for.
But, I was wrong. I felt a bit frustrated.
Then, one thing after another bad surprises came at me today.
Nothing horrible, but nothing I needed. My current circumstances aren’t the best. When one small thing gets you down, it means your “cup is full”. It means that something bigger is going on around you.
I’ve been dealing with my situation for a while. And I don’t need any extra stress. I’m basically trying to get myself together.
So, today was kinda emotionally exhausting.
I wrote down some notes throughout the day.
Reflecting on my trading, and the trades I lost today, I thought about day trading, trading H4…
Then I realised that with my strategy, I just have to be patient. Keep waiting.
The worst thing for me to do when feeling desperate is to trade more. That’s how you ruin your account. The key is shooting like a sniper. Not just shooting 10 shots and hoping you hit something. Well, not for my strategy.
The key for me is to just be patient right now.
Back to basics: let the trades come to you.
Sounds so cliché, but that’s the best thing for me to do at the moment.
Feeling desperate, lost, and confused can be handful. That brings me back to one of my rules: don’t quit.
Just relax, take a deep breath and take it one day at a time. Some days just feel like they’ll never end.
Those are the days to remember your principles.
Hello again my friend,
It can be very lonely out there - I know. I note the date of your first post on this thread - 7th March 2021. So you are nearly one year in (47 weeks?). Time flies - whether you are enjoying yourself or not.
Last week marked a milestone for me. I have been living off non-primary income for the past 11 months. One thing or another - medical issues, desire to concentrate more on other streams of income, needing to retrain in some technical areas I feel strongly about in my career (IT project management).
Anyway I will start a new contracting role next week under my terms (that I have held out for despite attempts by the government to make it nigh on impossible to be an actual independent consultant), and am delighted I held out without having to go “inside IR35” which basically meant not via my small company set up for contracting purposes. The government sure knows how to stick the boot in when it comes to entrepreneurship.
So that is a milestone. I applied for over 100 roles, talked to about 20 agencies, was called to two interviews where the client was a no show, and the first time I got an interview, I got the job.
It proved two things to me. The first is, as you say, never give up. I enjoy my consulting work and felt it a bit premature to fully retire. I am really looking forward to it. The second is that I am surprised we managed to survive 11 months without primary income. We would only need to make two changes to our lifestyle to survive an awful lot longer. But I set myself a goal over 20 years ago that involved a stretch target, a realistic target and a minimum target. It’s just not me to accept the minimum, not even the realistic. It’s the stretch or bust. Onwards and upwards.
If I can be of any use whatsoever to review your situation, you only have to yell. PM me. All the best.
Kinda annoyed…
I changed my risk strategy and decided to limit my risk to just three trades with higher % risk instead of more trades with lower % risk. I didn’t want to increase my exposure any further. So after settling on that, I didn’t bother reviewing the remaining pairs on my list Sunday at market open.
Also, it was beyond my bedtime. I was trying to keep schedule.
Monday morning I woke up late because I went to bed late. I had an appointment that I had to stop trading for so, I just check my open trades real quick.
This morning, I review all the pairs on my list and I see that I missed multiple good entries.
No use crying over spilt milk. The lessons I learned:
-I get scared after getting stopped out, and I become reluctant to take the next signal with the same risk %, if at all
-I SHOULD take those signals, even if I feel doubtful
-S/R zones can be wider than expected
-the market repeats the same ideas, but in a different way each time
-I must prepare better over the weekend and be ready to trade; not just for Sunday, but Monday as well
-review my entire list of pairs every trading session
-keep my risk strategy as the same—this doesn’t necessarily mean more, but be more patient and take the trades that are giving real entry signals
I’m still feeling frustrated over those missed opportunities.
I have to take my routine more seriously.
There will be more trades, and I have to be ready.
I just gotta vent. I had some stuff going on last week and over the weekend.
My W1 review had to wait until Sunday. But it takes a long time, and one day is not enough.
To do it properly, I review my W1
charts, list the potential setups, then do a comparison of the R:R and see which ones I should and shouldn’t take.
It does take time. Getting it all done before market open Sunday evening is not gonna happen.
So, if my work isn’t done, I’m scrambling at market open to place my trades before my bedtime. I will get to bed late, then wake up late.
This time, I placed a few trades and ignored everything else on my spreadsheet. I didn’t follow up with anything.
I missed about 4 or 5 perfect entries.
Now, I have to be honest with myself. If I had seen them, would I have taken those trades confidently? Would I have been scared and only risked .5% as usual, or trade the full 1% like I’m supposed to be doing?
It’s easy to be correct AFTER the fact. But how about before?
I’ve done it a few times where I post about regretting not taking a trade.
My strategy is profitable. But I’m so scared of repeating my past losing streaks, it affects my trading.
By trying to avoid losing, it causes me to lose. How ironic.
Every time I slip up and don’t follow my routine, I miss some nice moves.
It’s time for a change!!
You know, the problem with fear affecting my trades is that when I’m wrong once, I get scared about taking the same trade again.
Backtesting taught me that I could be wrong up to 3 times. Normally just once or twice.
But being wrong twice will discourage you from risking anything else. It doesn’t matter what % risk. Each time you’re wrong, you’re gonna wanna risk less the next time.
But when you’re finally right, your profits will mostly cover your losses because by risking less each time, you’re altering your R:R. If you risk 1% and get stopped out twice, but catch the swing on the third one and you still risked 1%, that’s fine.
But what if you risked .5% on the third trade? You cut your profits in half and a big chunk of it is covering your two losses.
I added a note about risk to my spreadsheet so I know how much I should be risking per account.
My next problem will be not revenge trading until the next batch of set ups arrive.
I’ve taken several losses the past two weeks.
I’m grateful to be past the phase of “I’m desperate so, I’m gonna place a bit bet and risk 10%”.
So, instead of doing that, I think I’m gonna take some time this weekend to assess my losses (which I should be doing anyway). This sounds nerdy, but I’m looking forward to the analysis and finding a pattern.
Then, I’d like to study some charts again.
I lost my chart samples in my other laptop, but it’ll be good to take a fresh look at more charts.
Also, I gotta separate the charts that are good for my swing strategy.
Some pairs are waaaaay too choppy. I’ll make a list of which are best.
This is why I’m grateful for the market closing on the weekend.
I’m feeling some frustration. I don’t like how many times I’ve been losing. Especially when I see how many entries I didn’t take.
It makes me ask myself “where were you when that happened?
I’m rethinking my morning routine. But I also need to think about which signals I act on and which ones I walk away from.
I can say that I learned this time that S/R lines are not absolute. Sometimes they’re just zones.
And several pairs will do the same thing.
I don’t just wanna keep missing trades and learning lessons. I have to reach a point where I can act on what I see and be right.
I’ve recently had some nice wins. And the swings come in cycles. This cycle I totally goofed. I don’t mind being wrong, as long as I eventually catch that swing.
But I saw so many trades that I didn’t take. I have to pay closer attention. Even more than than, I have to know what to pay attention to.
I’m gonna review my handwritten notes about my last backtesting, review my recent losses, and study some more charts.
I’m seriously having flashbacks to the chart activity I saw that happened a week ago, and I’m wondering why I didn’t take those trades.
Sometimes, you have an idea of what’s gonna happen, then it happens sooner than you expected or just a little bit different that what you expected, then you doubt yourself.
Then, after the chance has passed, you realize you were right the whole time.
This has happened a few times. I have to trust my analysis, without trading desperately.
I think a big problem is when a signal comes, and your strategy says “yes” while your inner voice (doubt) says “no”.
I just finished my analysis and trading picks of the day.
I added a new checklist for entry and exits. And in the end, it’s way too much work in just one day.
I just started skimming and looking for currencies with at least two pairs about to do a similar move.
It’s funny because I added info to my spreadsheet to make it easier, and in the end, I just took notes on a piece of paper.
I did some analysis of my trades for January.
Basically, the most common solution to the errors of January is: take the trade.
If I had taken the trade after the loss, I would have profited more. It’s weird that my error was NOT taking the trade.
The problem is not my strategy—it’s me. I’m either in disbelief/doubt or I’m scared due to a recent loss.
So, what happens is that my strategy says to open a position. I’ll get stopped out and assume I was wrong.
Then when I get another signal for the same pair two days later, the first loss casts doubt on what I’m seeing. “Maybe I’m seeing it wrong…”
So I’ll either reduce my risk (and potential profit) or just not take it at all.
Then I’ll take a look at the trade I didn’t take and see that I should’ve taken it. It is frustrating, but it’s also encouraging that I should learn to take more risk (safely).
Just finished trading. I was tempted to take some trades, but decided to hold out for better signals.
I was thinking of EUR/USD’s recent mocements, and I suddenly thought of a lesson in Pipsology: “sometimes the market isn’t tradeable”.
Yes. Up to 80% of the time it is said to be “not tradeable”, if you stick to one trading plan (for example, trend following, trend reversal). But if you have three plans for trend following, trend reversal and “consolidation” then in theory, the market is always tradeable. The million dollar question is "what type of market are we in during the timeframe under consideration (scalp, day trader, intraday trader / swing trader or long term (fundamentals) trader? And how do we know if and when the market type is going to change on us during the trade lifecycle from set up > entry > trade management > trade exit. All trading plans should address each of these lifecycle stages, for each trade, and should have a written process based on plan principles and back tested actual results analysis. A lot easier said, than done.
I’ve taken some losses this week. Nothing alarming, but more than I’m ok with.
So, I’m looking forward to some analysis this weekend and see where my head was with some of these trades.
I trader recently wrote “trade what you see”. I’ve heard it before, but this time it’s really got me thinking. During my chart review I saw soooo many trades that I could have taken that would have been a nice profit.
Of course hindsight is 20/20, but I’m seeing actual trading signals but they weren’t in the exact place I expected them to be.
I searched for that trader’s post and found this instead:
This idea really has me thinking. I keep seeing so many signals I should have taken but didn’t.
Why? Why? Why? I was there that day! I saw that chart on that day. I wasn’t sleeping in. I didn’t skip that day. So, what’s my problem?!
My friend warned me that “it’s not a game.”
Trading can change your life, for better or worse, in a matter of months.
I’d rather be on the profitable side.
But that doesn’t mean desperate trading. It means pay closer attention to everything you’re doing.
And when you see an entry signal, you take it in accord with your strategy. And same for the exit. Don’t try riding it to the moon. Riding it to the moon will leave you at break even instead of a 10-15% profit. Sure, it could’ve been 50% profit that time. Oh well. Keep it moving!! No time to waste!!
I’ve gotten so caught up with trades that I expect to last for weeks, that I’ve ignored trades that may only last a few days.
I keep trading what I want to trade. But that’s not how trading goes. You have to trade what the market gives you.
Some could be days, some couls be weeks, or months. I have to be able and flexible enough to tell the difference.
The market tells me what to do, not me just doing what I want or what I think price is gonna do.
“Well, price is going down so I’m shorting it all the way down. It’s giving at exit signal already at the MA50 with 35% profit? I don’t care. I think it should be continue going down, so I’m gonna hold”
Bam! Turns bullish, and now I’m stopped out at BE.
I also mentioned this recently in the above post. It does not universally mean abandoning indicators or any other form of price modification. It does not mean just staring at the price alone. If one does that all you will see is a lot of up and down chaos. Even so-called naked charting involves comparative evaluation with earlier price developments such as highs and lows, the only difference is that one doesn’t necessarily physically draw these connections, which might cloud the issue.
It also does not mean that the market is some kind of independent beast with its own mind, character and secret ambitions.
"Trading what you see" simply means identifying what is actually happening on your charts regardless of what your own opinion might be of what it should be doing.
And the reasoning for this is so very simple. The current market price is just a barometer which, like a temperature thermometer, only reacts to the actual variations in the current buying/selling pressures. It does not react to opinions, or writings, or hopes, or dreams. It is highly sensitive and it only reacts to actual transactions.
Therefore, the price right in front of you is simply, but highly effectively, telling you what the majority of all the market participants is doing right now.
Nobody can know all the publicly available information relevant to a market, nor can anybody know all the private information relevant to a market…and even if they did, nobody can know how the majority of the entire market is going to react to said information, or by how much, or for how long…
But you can monitor the total impact of all this information and how the majority of all the actual participants have decided to react to it all - and you can monitor it live, as it happens.
Price.
So where would you rather place your trust when risking your own money? On what you as one, small, partially aware, individual thinks? Or on what the rest of the participating community is actually doing?
This does not mean one’s own opinions are meaningless at all. If one feels strongly enough about what should happen next then all this means is read the price and wait until it tells that the majority of the rest of the trading community is also thinking the same and is reflected in the price - i.e. trade what you see, when you see it.
And this is where technical analysis enters the picture. As we all know, it is very easy to say “just watch the price” but price is often very erratic and a single candle will often entirely reverse its preceding candle, etc. But there is a “red line” that is usually running through the overall on-going sequence of candles, and our TA (whether indicators or PA or both) should be designed to identify that line and tell us something about its characteristics (e.g. an underlying trend that is starting, exhausting, etc). If our TA does not provide us with accurate “intelligence” how can we expect to know when to enter and when to exit?
This is all wrapped up in the simple phrase:
"Trade what you see"