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727

I’m taking time to study more consolidations. I found a nice consolidation zone on AUD/CHF on May 2021. It seemed pretty difficult and I didn’t understand how to analyze it. I just took it one step at a time and followed my strategy.

The problem is that there are some trades that end in losses, and there’s nothing you can do about it. Sure you can move your SL to BE, but then you could miss out on a nice trade when price retests your entry then moves in your favor.

That’s one problem: you can’t always move your SL, but if you do then don’t be upset if you miss the swing.

The other problem is that in a consolidation zone some trades end without an exit signal, then your fat profit returns to zero. I’m looking at a couple of those trades, and those losses are necessary because you just have to let the trade work itself out.

That’s the part that’s awful. Imagine your profit is 5x your risk, and then your profit not only goes to zero, you lose money because price hits your original SL.

Or just move SL to BE and deal with the consequences.

I’m just thinking how I’d feel trading that consolidation zone. You can’t just close a trade because you think, ¨hey that’s some nice profit¨. You could be closing your trade waaaay to early.

Depending on the nature of the price action, I just have to take that loss.

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728

@dushimes

I have not been paying attention to this thread much - please remind me what you see as an exit signal?

Please tell me timeframe you’re timeframe too.

Sorry for my ignorance on this thread of yours.

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729

No worries, it’s really really long…so, don’t worry about it. haha

Of course it depends on the situation. But my exit signs are usually marked by hitting a support or resistance TL on D1. I do however check W1 or M1 for reference.

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730

@dushimes

How do you define support or resistance with this type of trading? I will try to look back over the thread - IMO there is always an exit signal - something you said does not always occur in these setups.

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731

Exit signals it’s all is and buts even with lots of experience.Im doing ok as a trader these days but the dilemma I still have is do I become purely a day trader and scrap holding on to trades over night . regardless ,if a substantial profit is made.

732

@greenscorpio

I’ve never had an issue with exits, but I use trailing stops - not sure if that’s what you guys are doing or not.

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733

No have to confess I don’t use them.I see every trade different and don’t have fixed rules different circumstances ,generally I don’t have real tight stops but even this is not set in stone,for instance i.might add to losing trades but not in a hazardous way ,or as a reaction to loss with the stop already in position, I also add to winners . Ideally the stop moved to limit loss, better still at least break even .

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734

Not at all. I never gave it a serious try. And my trades need a lot of breathing room. I’d rather just ratchet my SL manually.

How do you use your trailing stop? Based on the last retracement, or just a few candles behind current price?

735

My backtests pretty much point out the most obvious trades. Perhaps, I’m trading way too much. I have to accept that perhaps that’s the case. One recent analysis showed me that while trading a consolidation zone, I wasted four trades. They were all unncessary.

This morning, I tried to keep that in mind. I think I should focus on the obvious trades. Trades that pretty much throw themselves at your feet. So, this morning, there were a couple trades that I was tempted to take, but wasn’t sure the best way to trade it—I didn’t see anything suggesting which way price will go. I decided to stay out. It feels weird, but if there’s no suggestion to which way price will go, then the odds of trading it properly are against me. It’s a random trade, pretty much. I’d gonna try waiting more for trades where the odds seem in my favor.

Just because price is turning around, retracing, or I see a long wick, it doesn’t mean I should jump in. It’s not just the signal, but where the signal is happening. That may be a factor that I’m overlooking.

The past few days I’ve been trading a bit less and focusing on studying charts. It does feel a bit counterproductive, but I need some answers regarding my strategy, and I’ll only find them in the charts. I need more answers before continuing.

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736

So, I saw a GBP/SEK sell setup on D1, and I was scared to take it. I just checked it, and now there’s a big bear candle. I could have taken it, and I should have.

I took a look at my diagram, and it says I should have taken it. The funny part is that I even have a specific area on my diagram for that EXACT set up. But, I didn’t even look at my diagram. The fear is real.

Today was also my first day of not taking desperate trades. There were several trades I wanted to take, but I didn’t. I think I have a hard time telling the difference between ¨can¨ and ¨should¨.

I need to spend some time focusing on what my entry signals are and aren’t.

Here’s the rub: I want to get to a level where I don’t need to check my diagram; I just look at a setup and I know what to do. Sovos was right. He said I seem to lack confidence in my strategy.

I wasn’t sure if that was right, or maybe my problem was something else. But he’s right. The GBP/SEK sell trade was an example of that.

Here’s what happened when I saw that setup this morning. I saw the doji, and the next candle was slightly bearish. Normally, new candles pullback a bit before going in their true direction. I assumed that price was gonna go bullish for a couple candles, and then I’ll short it.

However, my strategy said to jump in because the trend will continue. Well, I didn’t even look. It didn’t even cross my mind.

I guess I was trying to be so cautious, that I didn’t think about taking appropriate risk.

Mark Douglas talks about being paralyzed with fear. That’s what I was.

It’s funny. I just had a thought that I should make my diagram easier to read. Perhaps. But, that wasn’t the case. I didn’t even look!

I have a friend who I talk to every week. He always casually asks how trading is going. Of course it’s the same. But, I’m getting tired of hearing myself talk about how it’s the same.

I’m tired of coming on here and talking about how it’s not going great.

There are ebbs and flows in motivation. Sometimes, I feel frustrated. But there’s nothing to be frustrated at. I have a profitable system, but not a profitable frame of mind.

The traders makes the strategy, not the other way around. But I’m not giving up. Quitting is not an option. I just have to keep peeling these layers. A snake can only shed its skin against sharp rocks.

OK, ok. I got it. I’ve taken so many bad trades that when I saw the correct signal today, I assumed it could ONLY end in a loss like the other bad trades. That means, I see bad signals and good signals the same way. I see them the same way because I’ve been mixing them.

I need to make a COMPLETE list of signals.

Edit: On second thought, I remember checking my diagram for that trade, but I didn’t scroll and follow the instructions which say I could be wrong 3 times, or scroll down and see the instructions I have for that exact setup…

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737

I put on some motivational speeches, and I’m getting my head right. I’m trying to think about the best way to organize my thoughts, my signals, and how to organize the steps…

I clicked on two different charts, and on the third one I found a list of signals like I was already thinking about…that I already started and forgot about. The work is about 40% done!

Let’s go! Let’s go! Let’s go!

738

I’m working on my signal diagram. It makes sense and to be honest, it feels like I’m consolidating all my other diagrams into one. I’m not sure if that’ll be too much info on one diagram, so I’m not deleting anything yet.

But if there’s a simpler way to organize my steps, I’m gonna go with it.

The way I had my other diagrams, it was about some setups, but not all the signals. This allowed me to be so flexible in the signals I traded. In my mind it was kind of clear, but quite fluid. Putting it onto a diagram makes it concrete. In my mind it’s an idea, but when it’s visual it’s not flexible.

I feel good about this step.

739

Another thing I gotta work on is taking all appropriate signals. If I see the right signal, and I have the margin for it, there’s no reason for me to NOT take that signal.

Sometimes, I see a signal and I don’t take it because I assume it’s gonna be wrong. Actually, I wrote about this yesterday. Anyway…hopefully, if I learn to only take signals that are in my strategy, I can stop talking myself out of perfectly reasonable trades.

740

Actually, I have the opposite thought… When I see a signal or a formation in the price that goes with my strategy, INSTANTLY, I want to go in (I can wait for a confirmation candle but I think of it has a “I need to go in on this one” or “I can’t miss this”. I need to work on that, the so called FOMO…

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741

But if it fits your strategy, then it’s all good, right? Isn’t that a good thing?

742

I spent most of my trading time working on my new consolidated diagram. I’m about to check on my open trades, but I really wanted to focus on this new diagram.

And it’s a lot clearer than my previous diagram. I’m putting it all in one place, and I actually caught myself going in a circle. Meaning, one step was saying the same thing as another step, so I eliminated one.

I’m gonna keep working on it. Yeah, it’s a lot of info, and I’ll delete what is unnecessary, but it’s in one place and simplified.

743

Sometimes it ruins my strategy…
Like yesterday, one of my indicators was showing me a very good time to go in a trade but the price was not touching a support area that (as I know) would have to touch before going up again… The FOMO effect was acting and putting pressure on me and of course, I ruined a trade (I’m in a demo acc tho). I can say that I learned with it and I think that this is the most important. Learning from your mistakes.

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744

So, does that mean you need more than one element in your entry signals?

I’ve been dealing with that lately. It’s not just the entry signal, but where the signal is happening. So, the signal may not be worth paying attention to if it’s not in the right place.

What do you think?

745

I’m really racking my brain trying to organize my steps. It’s getting kinda frustrating.

And I realized that this is just a tool for organizing my thoughts. The bottom line comes down to whether or not I enter the trade when I see the right signal.

I saw two perfect signals over the past two weeks, and I did nothing in both cases. I think I’m at the point where I can’t blame my strategy, or my diagram steps. Even when I know what I’m supposed to do, diagram or not, I talk myself out of the trade.

I can include as many steps and precautions and sample charts as I want, no two setups are exactly alike, and I’ll always be able to talk myself out of anything.

I just need a diagram to help me see when perhaps is best to stay out, and what my entry signals are. I pretty much have that already. I just gotta stop being a scaredy cat.

746

I’m not sure if I need more than one element in my entries but I think that it’s safer. I can tell you that I use a lot the RSI indicator (still figuring out if it’s worth it or not) and I try to have more elements that can confirm me an entry or not.

About the place of the signal, totally agree. Sometimes that is more important than the signal itself. What I think is that (for example with my trade of yesterday) if my indicator is giving me a good sign to go in but the price is not where it should be (or where I think it should be, like a support area or resistance), something is not good… This means that the place where you find your signal can be more important than the signal. It can decide if your trade is successful or not.

Here’s the chart:

Screenshot 2022-07-20 at 14.53.35
Screenshot 2022-07-20 at 14.53.352802×1602 241 KB

I went to soon for the trade (the black circle) after having the confirmation of an indicator and a candle, ignoring completely the fact that the price would (probably) test the support zone…

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