Trading journal

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
747

You’re wondering if more than one element in your entries is safer or not, and whether you should continue with the RSI. In my opinion, your answer is in the charts.

Everything you need to know is in the charts. Backtest, and do an honest assessmet. Do a tally and take every single signal that your strategy says to take. Not just the winning signals because you can already see the outcome in the backchart, but take every signal. Then do a tally to see if it worked or not. If you took 25 signals, how many did you win? How much money would you have lost or won?

I used to love the MA. MA crosses and bounces. But I did an honest assessment and I saw that it didn’t work for me. It lags waaay to much for me. I had to be honest with myself and admit that it wasn’t working for me. I got rid of the MA on all my charts, and I reduced my strategy down to price action. I realized that I was mixing my price action entries with my MA entries. The confusion was too much.

So, my suggestion is to look to the charts for all your answers.

What do you think?

748

Yesterday, there were two particular trades that I wanted to take, but didn’t because they weren’t proper setups. I wanted to trade them, but didn’t.

Just checked now, and I was right to stay out apparently. I thought they were reversal candles, but they were actually retracements.

Today, I didn’t do much. I jumped in long on EURUSD. It looks like it retraced and will continue bullish. We’ll see how that goes. I jumped in on another trade, but decided to close it right away. It wasn’t a real signal and felt a little forced. It was a signal, but not in the right place…

So, I jumped out. I felt frustrated because I was thinking how I’d feel to see that I was right after all…

1 Like
749

Yes, I agree with you but, sometimes, there’s a lot of information coming from the charts… All of this info can stress us even more… What I feel is that we should keep things clear and use all of our signs in a moderated way (if you know what I mean).

And of course, as you said, if the indicators are not helping with that (looking for the chart in an “easy” way) we must get rid of them.

1 Like
750

I’ve had that. If it stresses me even more, then I’m doing something wrong. It should make me more decisive, not less. And if I’m undecided, or confused about how to make the trade, I should stay out. That’s the goal.

If I’m confused, I can’t trade. I don’t need to clear about what’s going to happen during the next week, the next month…I just need to worry about the signal in front of me and the exit signal that will follow. I’m just a passenger, not the driver!

image
image2000×1417 317 KB

1 Like
751

That’s a good thought. When the chart is confusing you, clean it and start again. If you still not seeing clear/confused, don’t trade. This is it, I guess.

This is really good! In the moment of trading/analysing we should only focus on the market, on the right now. And most important, let the market guide us because in the end, the market is stronger and decisive. As you said, “we are only passengers, not drivers.”.

Thank you @dushimes !

1 Like
752

I don’t even feel like journaling this. But, what good is a journal if you omit significant parts?

Friday was not a good day, trading-wise. This isn’t about losses. It’s about not taking trades. I found two trades that I SHOULD have taken but didn’t.

And the reason for not taking them are awful. It was laziness mixed with fear.

I have my spreadsheet with all my pairs listed. I usually start my work a few hours before the candle closes. As I work my way down my list, I mark which ones I need to come back to once the candle has closed.

I marked two trades at the top of my list, and kept working my way towards the bottom. Once I got to the bottom, in my mind I couldn’t think of any particular trade that I needed to review again, so I just went to bed. I completely forgot about the two trades at the top of my list that I marked.

Later in the day, I checked my trades, and that’s when I remembered. My frustration grew, and I remembered two other major trades (from two weeks ago) that I SHOULD have traded, but didn’t.

I started getting anxious. Really really anxious. I played some motivational speeches while I started pacing back and forth in my room.

I started getting kinda upset. That feeling like you wanna punch the wall or just start running or something. I didn’t know what to do, so I just put myself in the cold shower and shouted under the water.

I’ve never felt so close to start understanding trading in a profitable manner. But, I feel like the closer I get, the shorter my steps become.

I’m not looking for any advice from anyone. I’m at the point where buying more books isn’t gonna make a big difference. Studying more charts isn’t gonna make a big difference. No motivational speech is gonna make a big difference. The next big hurdle for me is taking the trade when my strategy says so, and not talking myself out of it.

It’s just me.

I didn’t want to believe that my low self-esteem problem was affecting my trading, but I have to be open to the possibility that maybe it is. I get scared of losing money, and perhaps that’s the only reason I don’t take those trades.

It could be both: low self-esteem and fear.

But it’s gotten to the point now that when I see the trades that I should have taken, but didn’t, it’s like I’m not standing up to my fear. I’m losing to my fear again and again. It feels like the equivalent of being a kid and another kid taking your lunch money, and you didn’t fight back.

Sovos said I seem to not trust my strategy. And I clearly don’t. If I did, I wouldn’t be writing this. I don’t trust my strategy because of fear of losing money (still in demo, but it feels real).

In the Disciplined Trader, it says our experiences keep on reinforcing our beliefs. Unless we are open to new information that could lead to new experiences, we will experience the closed-loop nature of our beliefs, assuming that what we experienced was the only possibility available. (pg 113)

So, that means even when I have a valid signal, I still think I’m gonna be wrong. Now, there are trades with mixed signals and I should stay out because I don’t see any clue suggesting which way price will go. If I see no clue, then both buy and sell feel wrong at the same time (which NEVER has happened in my backtest). But it feels wrong no matter what.

This feeling is becoming a default thought for many of my trades. I will not progress as a trader if I can’t get passed this fear, this hurdle. It’s just me. Books, studying, and backtests can help, but only so much.

It all comes down to me. Whether I take the trade or not.

Make no mistake, this is no reason to quit. This is nothing but a reason to keep going.

753

I’ve talked about this so much, that I’m tired of talking about it. I’m getting tired of hearing myself talk to others about it.

I’m gonna take a few days to just go dark. I really only talk with two people on a regular basis. I don’t even want to talk to them for a couple days. And it’s not about them. I don’t like how I feel about myself right now. I don’t feel good about my actions. I need to choose different actions.

This isn’t something I expect anyone to agree with. To each his own. I just want to share to help myself vent and track my thoughts, and in case there’s anyone else here going thru a similar process.

754

I was reading an old post on here ,I liked something he said ,it was amateurs worry about profits and gains and professional s worry about protecting their losses

But the point he made at the end

There more to life than just trading !!!

Have a couple of days break maybe and do something you use to like doing

1 Like
755

“The world we have created is a product of our thinking; it cannot be changed without changing our thinking. If we want to change the world we have to change our thinking…no problem can be solved from the same consciousness that created it. We must learn to see the world anew.”

  • Albert Einstein
4 Likes
756

I’m noticing that I still bend the rules of my strategy. I see price action that matches my signal, but it doesn’t match my setup.

That sounds confusing. What I mean is the surrounding price action doesn’t match.

For example, I had a trade that I jumped in this morning, but after thinking about it, I realized I couldn’t understand what price was actually doing. So, I closed it right away. How can I trade if I don’t know what’s going on?

My trade is based on my understanding of the current price action.

Price reversed, then hit S, and it may go bearish again…The whole thing seemed confusing to me. So, the solution is clear: wait until it is clear.

It’s that simple.

Also, I had an idea to re-do my strategy. Another way to organize the data. So, I’ll tinker with that and see how it works.

I shouldn’t assume that just because I had it somewhat organized that it has to stay that way. I should feel free to reorganize it as my mark II,

757

I’m just about done. I spent the whole time working on my diagram. Actually, it doesn’t need much editing.

I just need to keep it organized and just be patient. What happens is that I see something in the charts that looks good, but it doesn’t fit anything in any of my diagrams.

I noticed that my problem is that I will jump out of a trade prematurely, then I’ll get desperate trying to get back in. I start FORCING my entry into a trade. And forcing a trade doesn’t fit with my diagram.

Basically, my diagram is based on setups. I get too impatient to wait for those setups, then I find random setups and just improvise. That usually doesn’t end well. That’s the reason I’m taking so many losses. I just jump in and improvise.

I have to WAIT for the right setup, then I can go in and execute my plan. I realized recently that I’m not waiting at all. I see something, and I think about the best way to trade it. I don’t think about whether or not it’s an appropriate setup. Nope, I just jump right in, and then I wonder what went wrong.

My impatience is where I often go wrong.

So, my trading time is almost up. I only have about 20 minutes left. No time for actual trading or scanning charts. Perhaps I can just check up on my open trades.

But, I also have to take the garbage out…

1 Like
758

I’m studying charts. But I’m trying something different. When backtesting I normally just jump into the chart.

This time I’m closing my eyes and randomly pick a day. So, the point is to simulate when I open a new chart and I have to figure out what’s going on and what I should do next.

Sometimes, I have to wait before I can open a position. If a pair is in mid-swing, my strategy might not allow me to jump in because it usually doesn’t end well. There MUST be an entry signal. That means I’ll just have to watch price keep trending while I’m on the sidelines. That hurts.

If I do jump in, it’s not strategic–it’s random. It might work, but it usually doesn’t work out too well that way in the end. And if I allow myself to do that, what’s stopping me from doing that all the time? That would turn into a lot of losses.

In the backcharts I can see that it would be worth it to jump in. But in live charts, I don’t know what could happen next, so I have to treat the backcharts the same way.

It’s quite unpleasant to study a backchart and see that I might have to sit out of a trend for a whole week because there was no entry sign. But this is what I must do to protect my capital. I read somewhere that learning how not to lose money is more important than knowing how to make money.

Maybe I made that up myself…I don’t know. But it’s true.

So, this method is helping. Onward and upward!

1 Like
759

That is something that @steve369 is constantly emphasising to newcomers and it is true. It is one of the foundational principles underlying consistent, long-term, profitability.

I posted a similar thought from Jack Schwager:
“Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.”

But on its own, this is not enough. One has to first make the money that one is trying to protect.

But, in the longer term, like with any business on the planet:

Positive Net Profits (A) = Gross Profits (B) - Gross Costs (C), where B>C

Putting all one’s efforts into (B) whilst ignoring (C) is simply not going to work…:smiley:

3 Likes
760

You know what? You’re right!! He is always saying that! Haha
And it’s so true. It’s a problem that I still deal with. I often see some price action that is kind of a signal, but the setup is wrong. I’ll lie to myself that it’s a signal, and jump in. Of course it usually leads to a loss.

I jumped in because I would lie to myself that it’s gonna go up or down. So, I have a 50/50 chance of profiting. But that’s not how it works. Sure, I either win or lose, but I was always jumping in when the PROBABILITY of losing was greater than the probability of winning.

I didn’t think about losing. All I thought about was how much I could win. That’s it. And when you place six trades like that and the next day they all got stopped out…it sucks.

@SovoS you ever have any moments like that?

1 Like
761

I was just reviewing a backtest trade that the entry was right, and the swing started trending. My long trade was up, profits were looking nice, then it retraced. OK, no big deal, just hold.

Price was caught in a bullish swing and the profits are looking great, then bam! It just bottomed out, and my profits disappeared.

Price passed my entry. And I got stopped out at BE.

The problem is that there was no real exit signal. It turned out that price went bearish a bit more, then took a major bull swing and only offered a decent entry.

I imagined how I would feel watching my trade do so well, then just return to $0 and I can’t do anything about it because there was no signal whatsoever. I could always ratchet my SL and just deal with the consequences.

But rarely has there been a need to in my backtests.

It just sucks that no strategy is perfect. The same strategy that protects your money, is the same strategy that might make you watch your profits drop to $0…(on the rare occasion of course)

762

Well, I don’t think so…but I am not sure I really undestand what you are describing here!!! :smiley:

I don’t really understand what is the difference between a signal and a setup - unless you mean the market environment/fundamentals, etc within which a signal pops up.

I always look at the general issues relating to the markets in the morning and already then decide if I am looking for a trade or not (remember that I am a day-trader). After that it is just question of watching the hourly closes and enter when a setup occurs.

But I think we trade very differently in terms of both timeframes and strategies so there is not much to compare.

My strategy is mainly just based on a band of MAs and on which side of it the price is currently moving. I usually place my target at the nearest sensible S/R type level and a stop on the other side of the MA band - and that is it…The rest of the input is just my own discretionary appraisal of the quality of the setup.

My personal thorn in the side, if I let it happen, is to pre-empt the close of an hourly candle that looks like it is going to form a setup - only to see it reverse before it closes on the hour and ends up as a ordinary candle going nowhere significant. But that is rare nowadays as I only look at the market on or after the hourly candle close.

I am fairly convinced that one of the major reasons why traders struggle to achieve consistency is because the market is too visible all the time. It is too accessible and encourages spontaneity and intuitive actions which are not always the right actions.

When I first started trading there was only a dial-in price service on a screen, no charting services. I drew all my charts by hand on graph paper based on daily OHLCs. If I wanted to check the price and place an order I had to telephone my broker on an international call. Naturally, this scenario meant that one was REALLY careful about deciding when to take a position and the number of trades was really quite minimal. But were the results any worse for it? Well, considering over 80% of retail traders still actually lose their money, I can’t say that today’s trading environment is any better at all!!

If you don’t mind me taking up a bit of space on your thread, I would add that I have been thinking about this statistic quite a lot recently.

It was quite a few years back now that ESMA and other regulatory authorities required brokers to state on their web pages the percentage of retail traders that lose money. At that time, all the regulated brokers published their own figures and they were remarkably similar across all brokers, i.e. in the range 70+% - 80+%.

But since that start there has been a continuous and increasing supply of books, Youtubes and other resources relating to trading techniques, risk management, money management, pyschological issues, etc. And the awareness of these has been hugely broadened via forums like Babypips and multiple forms of social media.

So one would anticipate that the losing percentages quoted by these regulated brokers would by now be declining considerably and significantly as a result. And yet that is not the case! Brokers STILL quote losing percentages in the range 70+% - 80+%!!!

So why is this? Does this not indicate that the root cause of failure lies in something entirely outside the normal issues of strategies, risk and money management?
Personally, I suspect it is largely due to the “hare and the tortoise” syndrome. An over-confident and over-exuberant rush to gain overly-ambitious results is usually going to end in failure at some point. The moral of the hare and the tortoise being:

"you can be more successful by doing things slowly and steadily than by acting quickly and carelessly"

2 Likes
763

Yeah, that’s what I meant to say! haha. You could have a signal, but everything around it seems wrong.

So you jump the gun sometimes? You’re fortunate that only happens rarely. I’m working my way to that level.

It’s interesting to look back at dial-in trading.

It’s funny how the failure rate is the same even though there are countless books, blogs, channels, etc explaining how to trade and how the market works. I never thought of it like that, but it’s true.

764

I moved this quote to this thread as it is more appropriate here :slight_smile:

This is, of course, essential.

I noticed that you started this journal in March 2021. How do you see your progress so far and what major changes have you made along the way? In other words, how different is your current situation from your starting position in terms of success and strategy?

What do you see as the successful improvements you have made?

It would be interesting to read a description of your current strategy and a chart or two of successes/failures. This might help you to focus on the “good” and the “bad” and thereby help avoid the “ugly”! :slight_smile:

765

I’m not doing much trading today. Possibly none. So far, I’ve been studying charts. I’ve been challenging my own strategy.

I’ve made some silly mistakes that I’m trying to understand.

What I did was choose one pair. I went into my trade history and reviewed the trades.

I drew all my S/R lines, then marked what I should have done. Then, I marked where my losses were.

It’s interesting to compare what I did with what I should have done.

So now, I’m taking some time to review charts and add a little bit to my diagram.

Sure, I’d like to be trading right now. But this is me sharpening my axe. Just like Abraham Lincoln.

766

This is an extremely good exercise and a very powerful self-developing tool. More so for the individual than for the strategy itself.

I also started a similar process some years back. I read it from someone’s post, I don’t remember where or whose now. My trading approach includes a high degree of discretionary input and that included adjusting stoploss and target levels.

Sometimes these adjustments were effective but often they were not. So I started keeping a record of whether these decisions had been correct or not, i.e. would my trade have been stopped out for worse if left and would I have hit my original target and gained more if left.

The results surprised me. Adjusting my stop level when it looked likely to be hit did actually save money and was mostly correct. Only a few times did price go on to reverse direction prior to my original stop level.

But adjusting my target level was a totally different story. In most cases, prices did continue to my original target and I would have gained significantly more over time if I had not prematurely exited so many trades.

This analysis was concrete and undeniable and was thereafter easy to adopt into the discretionary element of my trading.

This was all some years back now, but the benefit is lasting. Although I do still have a tendency to cut winners early especially in slow-moving, unconvincing markets.

I know this is not exactly your issue. My point is only that carrying out a concrete quantitive analysis of the difference between what one did and what one should have done is very revealing and, at the same time, very convincing regarding making changes to one’s overall strategy.

2 Likes