With this strategy, basically, you focus on just the 3 days. Nevermind how far the swing could go. Just get whatever 3 days gets you, and limit your risk. Is this correct?
If so, I can understand that. It’s greed that makes you wanna ride a bullish swing to the moon! Then when it drops, your first thought is “why didn’t I get out sooner?!”
Right…this is an example of a simple time analysis…
The reason it’s difficult to be patience is because we do not know how long we should wait or want to wait. Time is relative we know that. Most of us focus on where is price going to go…more important I believe is to know, when price will move and how long it will get there IF our projected direction is correct (probability).
Once this issue is resolved then it’s a lot easier to be patience because we know how long to trade. FX is not making this easy due to the 24hrs market.
Try learn about Fibonacci time and wolfe wave. Gann is also trying to accomplish time analysis through his square of 9 and other esoteric means…Tom De Mark has his timing system as well…check them out…hope that helps.
Abdul
MFM Team.
yep…you got that right…it happened to all of us even seasoned traders…now you are not surprised why some banks like Lehman, Barings and many others go under because of greed and poor risk management.
Very often on forex D1 charts, 3 higher closes in uptrends are followed by a fourth day with either a lower close or at least a lower low. When you got out at the end of Day 3, you will usually get a chance to re-enter by a pre-set order at some time during Day 4 because there was a lower close or a lower low - either could be used to generate a re-entry below the most recent highest price achieved.
If the re-entry buy order is not triggered you can reduce it the next day if that also has a lower close and/or a lower high than Day 4. But if the re-entry buy order is not triggered quickly, that’s a possible suggestion added to your other TA that maybe the trend will fail to resume and you don’t now want to be in long anyway.
I don’t ever regret closing a winning trade that was unlikely to give more profit on Trade 1 but was likely to give me a Trade 2.
I just want to briefly return to an earlier discussion here regarding yesterday’s EU and USD-based trades in general
Here are the USDX and EU 1-hour charts side by side, and because the USDX is a basket it does show how the USD has been the dominant currency in this pair’s movements, at least recently. So it is maybe an idea to keep an eye on this instrument as part of your decision-making/timing.
Ok. Cool No regret. That’s great. My question is: if you have multiple techniques to close trades, how do you know if you’re not choosing the technique based on emotions?
I wanted to close my short-term DKK. But my strategy said to close when it crosses the MA. But if I had closed, I could have locked in some profit, shorted it during the pullback, locked in more proft. Then pause to see what it does next.
But I didn’t do any of that because I’m waiting for the MA signal. If I chose to change my original plan and close based on a trend line strategy, is that a lack of discipline?
What if my flexibility is based on price action?
This is where forex trading maybe scores over stock trading. And long-term certainly scores over short-term. Its a pretty predictable market, with relatively low volatility compared to stocks.
Bear in mind I’m only taking positions in established trends. For me I won’t be taking a long position on a forex D1 uptrend until a day or several days after the 50EMA starts to slope upwards. But my exits will be long before price ever gets near the 50EMA again. So I’m slow to get into a new uptrend but quick to take profits and quick to re-enter.
You can check it out but in the majority of cases, in a forex D1 uptrend, the best number of consecutive higher closes is 3.
I’m also pyramiding every trade but that’s a whole different story…
Bro, sometimes, I think trading stocks is wild. haha. Forex is a whole other animal. I think fundamentals play a much more significant role in stocks. But, I can only say that from the outside because I don’t get down with stocks.
As far as your strategy, is seems like you may be missing out on larger profits. BUT, you do so with the benefit of low risk/high probability.
Is this right?
I would turn the question back to you and ask, why do you have multiple techniques to close trades if they don’t each have a specific situation in which they are implemented? If the scenario for each of these closing options is clear and concrete then you know when, where and why you are using each of them?
Perhaps, again, there is a need here to have a clear set of separate rules and practices for your short term trades that do not mix up with your longer term parameters?
Sounds easy, but trading contra-trend pullbacks can be risky when there is a real chance of them suddenly springing back aggressively into the original trend direction. But it is possible and sometimes quite rewarding. Maybe you could consider a different strategy on a lower time frame for these type trades that will have a correspondingly closer stoploss zone and even a pre-defined target in either pips or a certain level/line from your higher level chart.
Personally, I prefer to keep long-term positions and short-term trades in separate compartments. Trading pullbacks on longer term positions can often result in missing a chunk out of the overall main move.
Yes, basically. Long-term trend-following trades in forex are characterised by high probability of continuation, high frequency of occurrence, high frequency of recurrence, high win rate, low return per trade, low risk per trade. Trading off a reversal signal would be the opposite in each case.
I don’t even calculate r:r, I’m just looking at % account growth per month and per year.
It’s always a good idea to ask out your doubts here because you get answers from experienced traders who have been in the market for years.
Absolutely. When you’re learning something new, which is complicated, the only stupid question might be the one you don’t ask.
“Yes, there is a such thing as a stupid question. So, don’t ask any of your meat head questions. I’ll come down there and choke you.”
-Dan Pena
Maybe it’s best Dan Pena is not on this forum haha
This is why I’m considering opening and closing trades with specific pre-determined exit signals.
I’m adding that to my tool box at the moment. Thanks!
Exactly! I’ll venture into the H4 to trade a pullback!
I have seperate accounts for this. It helps keep things a bit more organized.
Very good! 
A small development: I resisted FOMO with an NZD/USD trade.
I was in the process of filling out my journal entry and placing a market sell order. It would have been a small position for starters–just 0.038% risk.
But I decided to wait.
Here’s the M1. It looks like it’s breaking out of a downward channel. Much like EUR/USD and USD/CHF. However, it also looks like it’s in a range. I really like trading ranges. The entries, SLs, and TP are very clear. However, there are several things for me to figure out before I jump into this trade.
If it’s breaking out, it could keep going up. If it’s ranging it’ll keep going down.
I’m inclined to think it’s respecting the range limits because on Feb 23, 24 it bounced the zone immediately. Coincidence?
Here’s the D1 current consolidation zone.
I’m planning a straddle OCO. However, the NZD/USD in 2016 and '18 has bounced the resistance, then returned to hit it shortly after.
I’m suspect of this.
So, even though I like the swing/consolidation/swing rhythm this pair has, I have to think how I’m gonna trade this. Trading the MA on W1 would be unprofitable. But the D1 is great. Lots of volatility.
I could trade the MA and TL. I may even scale in.
But earlier today, I was so ready to just jump in. It’s half way thru its range, and I wanted to trade the remainder of the range, then ride the break out. This was my FOMO.
However, I’ve had a history of trading these little moves and getting chewed up. It’s the equivalent of trying to grab money at the bottom of a blender. Not a good idea.
I’ll set an OCO with a wide SL, and then watch it closely in case it decides to bounce resistance again.
This took me a long time to adjust to properly when I first started, as it does most new traders.
Trades will turn from positive to negative multiple times before they finally take off in their determined direction. I used to move my SL to BE way too soon, constantly getting stopped out prematurely, just to watch price move in my direction while I’m not looking.
I have more patience now and am usually able to hold off until the position has made 50-100 pips (depending on pair) before I even think about moving my SL to BE.
A fine example @MattyMoney that in spite of how many books one might read,ultimately learning trading is perhaps 90% hands on! 
Here’s an example of my current CADCHF trades:
This is also a good example of pyramiding, like @tommor mentioned earlier.
So it looks like you moved your SL up to the most recent bounce. @tommor called it “ratcheting” moving the SL to the bottom of the most recent candle. So, basically he’s still trading until the current candle gets engulfed. This is a good idea for short-term trades 3-4 days on the D1. Gotta protect your profits!
