Trading journal

[dushimes]

I’m feeling a bit more confident in my trading, but not enough. I really have trouble sometimes reading direction.

I’m not interested in any indicators, or courses. Everything I need to know, I can find it in the charts. If it looks easy when backtesting, it should be equally easy in live trading. That’s the goal.

I wanna understand better what clues happened in past charts, and apply that to my live trading. I’m in the right direction, but somethings are still unclear.

I take a trade, and I often doubt my position. Also, I’m often wrong, which I’d like to address, as well. It’s easy to say I was on the wrong side of the trade. Or just to say ¨well, it’s obviously going up, so I’ll just jump in long¨.

For me, it’s not so simple because there are frequent fluctuations. Timing the fluctuations correctly is where the money is made.

I’ve collected a few nice charts for examination. Seven, so far. I should have at least 10. Fifteen is good, but 20 would be better.

I try to find different types of trends. But they all seem so easy. Of course, they’re not, but they look easy. I wanna study difficult charts, but there are none. I’m the reason they’re difficult.

[dushimes]

I was reading one of Tommor’s posts and he said most people go short on a trend that clearly is going up. I admit that I have fallen into this category too many times. It makes me feel stupid. But, then what? Ok, I feel a certain way for making some mistakes that may seem super obvious to others. Now what?

I can’t just feel that way and keep doing the same thing because I feel bad. There’s no growth in that. Is that gonna be the end, or a stepping stone? Definitely a stepping stone.

That’s why I took time to collect charts over the past 3 days or so. My strategy makes sense when back testing, then why do I have so much trouble when trading live? What’s missing?

Time to turn to the charts for some answers. I collected 21 charts for analysis. Bear trends, bull trends, consolidations, mini consolidations, etc. I’m gonna try to compile a list of some important characteristics to look for, what happened, what the conditions were, etc…and try to make some sense out of it.

I don’t plan on changing my strategy too much, but I feel like some key features are missing.

[dushimes]

Analysis can be trick because you have to think about what you’re even looking for. There are so many aspects. Retracements, false signals, real signals + contradictory signals, retracements vs reversals…

I’m not sure where to begin. I’ll figure it out. I always do.

Time to turn off the music and put on my thinking cap.

[dushimes]

Writing my thoughts out on this thread help me sort things thru.

The first thing I’m noticing is that I have to accept that trading and price movement are two separate things. This is something I’m struggling with. If you want money, why wouldn’t you try to trade when price is moving? Well, because perhaps it just wasn’t tradeable. Meaning that there was no entry signal, and no safe entry…perhaps.

[dushimes]

There are so many things to look at. I’m not sure where to begin. How about just start with watching for entry signals?

From where my chart begins, I’m waiting 30 days for my signal. In that time, price has gone down and back up beautifully. Two nice little swings. But no entry signal.

So, I’d have to watch that happen and be ok with it. No frustration or anxiety, or FOMO.

[dushimes]

Perhaps instead of reinventing my strategy again, I could just run my strategy thru these charts and see if there are any faults.

I think that makes more sense.

I was feeling like I’m starting from scratch again, and I don’t think that’s necessary. I just need to poke holes in my strategy.

Another thing to keep in mind is that I don’t need to know exactly where price will end up. I just have to follow the entry and exit signals, and take what the market is giving me.

[dushimes]

This seems better, for now. I’m examining the chart and editing it, signal by signal, and I’m going to write on a spreadsheet/document what I SHOULD be doing and why. This is like recalibrating my thought process.

When I see these trades, my brain says to do something, but I have to find where I get confused and try to relearn what I should do.

Actually, I should do this with the trades I got wrong recently. Normally I look at my trades from a micro-view. But what I’m doing now is a macro-view. I’m zooming out and looking at the whole picture.

[dushimes]

It’s funny. I’m staring at the chart, and I’m not 100% sure what I’m looking for…I get something to eat, and as soon as I get to the kitchen, my brain started working again.

¨Well, how about this? What if that? What does that mean? We should compare this and that…¨

Also, I want to make adjustments to my strategy, but I have to be careful. Last time, I added so much to the strategy that it became impractical.

I have to remember that I should make adjustments to make the strategy work on a certain type of trade–not just the one I really regret getting wrong.

With a strategy, you can’t get greedy. It seems that trying to profit beyond the parameters of your strategy is bending the rules. And bending the rules will render it useless. It’ll cost you proper entries and exits.

[dushimes]

I should be trading right now, but for the moment I’m studying EUR/USD and why I was wrong.

I looked at this particular trend from two perspectives. Hold long-term (1 year) until it reaches support.
Pro: less work than frequent trading, less stress.
Con: if it reverses half-way to support, I could lose all my profit.

I thought about this and took a closer look at the trend. It actually brought me back to the application of my strategy. Upon a closer look at this trend, there are entry/exit signals along the way. A few losses along the way, but not many. The profits would have been outstanding.

But I would have had to have faith in my strategy. There’s the challenge.

[dushimes]

After looking at the EUR/USD trade, I think I can still do frequent trading, as opposed to holding for one year (yikes!), but I should keep speed trading.

I think I need to be more patient and not be scared to miss out. Just wait for the signals, mark my S/R and wait, wait, wait. Perhaps this way, when I finally catch the right trade, I won’t be ruining my profits with losses from other pairs.

My posts often circle around the same subjects over and over. I have to be mindful that I’m learning something each time I review losses. I can’t just keep doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. I’ll be going nowhere fast!

[ponponwei]

@dushimes

Ok, I feel a certain way for making some mistakes that may seem super obvious to others. Now what?

Bah always sucks comparing yourself to others. I hate it when I fall into this trap of putting myself down. I hope you find this happening to you less and less in the coming months. I find that it’s impossible to not ever feel this way but acceptance is so important!

[ponponwei]

@dushimes

as opposed to holding for one year

Imagine if you did this for USD/JPY last year!

[dushimes]

A big problem I have is understand which direction price is going. So, I’m gonna practice that for a little while. I’m gonna find some charts, work thru my strategy and identify some S/R zones.

I wish I had some pork rinds right about now…

[ponponwei]

Absolutely love pork rinds. I try not to buy them though as I will tear through a bag in one sitting.

[dushimes]

@ponponwei

I will tear through a bag in one sitting.

hahaha. I know that feeling. That’s why I only buy the plain kind. The seasoned kind has a lot of salt. That’s my fail-safe. At least if I eat half the bag, I’ll know that I didn’t eat too much sodium.

[dushimes]

I made an adjustment to my speed trading method. I’m trying to close the gap between backtesting and live trading.

When I backtest, the strategy works and everything makes sense. But I have to be willing to try new things in order to get different results.

The problem with my speed trading method is that the screenshots of the trades are zoomed in, and I can’t see the bigger trend. That’s one. Another problem is that I can’t draw on my pictures. I guess I’d have to download a program that allows me to draw on pictures. Actually, I didn’t think of that until right now as I’m writing this. Haha.

And if I draw my S/R on my chart before I do the trade, it gives away what candles could be coming.

But now, I’m doing something a bit different. I’m drawing my S/R on my chart as I move the chart forward. I can already see the coming candles, but this helps me to follow my strategy based on the previous candles, then see how the trade plays out.

It sounds weird, but the main idea is that I’m trying different things to poke holes in my strategy; and also to make it better.

I take way too many bad signals. I need to know why and what it should look like when trading live. So, this backtesting method may help. I take the screenshot and paste it onto a word document, with a short note.

I’m trying to train my brain when I should wait and WHY. I have to exhaust my desperation and FOMO until it gives up and decides to follow my strategy better.

[dushimes]

I’m walking myself thru some practice trades. Everything for the most part seems so easy. But I have to draw my S/R and try to look for the candles that would normally confuse me, then compare that to what I should be doing.

I noticed a bad habit that I have. I get so worried about being faked out, that sometimes, I BUY at the TOP. I see a doji, for example, and I think price is just retracing and is going to continue bullish, and of course it doesn’t.

I just noticed yesterday that I do that. Oh boy…

[dushimes]

I just noticed that I started this thread in March 2021. I’ve progressed but I’m not consistently profitable yet. It’s disappointing, but it’s not unmotivating.

I’m definitely gonna keep going.

I practiced a chart and I got several trades wrong. I analyzed that chart afterward, and I saw why. Analysis is so important. If I’m gonna advance as a trader, I have to find out why I was wrong, and what I can do to improve. Reviewing trading history is essential.

There is no spoon!!

[dushimes]

For some reason, I get a bit frustrated with some charts. I look at them, and I can’t tell which direction to trade them.

I think that’s because I’m just dying to jump in and open a position, and my brain is trying to figure out the best way to do it. Instead of being patient, my brain is trying to figure out a successful way to force the trade. It happens so frequently.

One side of my brain is forcing the trade, and the other side is trying to figure out how to do it, and that’s where the confusion comes in. If I’m forcing a trade, that means I’m not sure, in the first place. If I’m not sure, it makes me doubt my ability as a trader, and then it’s starts a downward spiral for an hour or so.

Forcing a trade feels like this

It’s stressful because both feel wrong; there’s no evidence that supports one over the other. Meaning, it’s a bad time to trade, but I wanna trade anyway. How can I make a decision based on nothing?

Some charts are pretty obvious. Others are really confusing. I had one trade, AUD/JPY with a very nice profit. I wasn’t sure which direction price was going. I held, and price pulled back, I lost some profit, but still ok. I held and lost 2/3 of the profit. I just closed and gave up. It’s not a good way to trade at all. I could have closed once I saw price was going against me, but I thought price would continue in my direction. Nope.

It casts a lot of doubt on me, and it doesn’t feel very good. I’m going back to bed. Forget this…I’m gonna rest, then keep at it later. I’m working on some practice charts. But I need to find some with contradictory signals.

Also…there were a couple trades that I wish I had takes a couple days ago. But someone said on the forum that it’s better to be out and wish you were in, than to be in and wish you were out. I’m appreciating that at the moment.

I took another look at my AUD/JPY trade, and I see where I went wrong.

Basically, I should have taken the first signal and just ignored EVERYTHING else. That’s in my strategy, but I got confused as price retested my entry twice. It’s happened so many times. I get totally lost by the random walk in the park. There were some big swings, and I guess the big banks do that to shake off the little banks. Well, I got shaken off too. I should have just taken my first signal, and waited, waited, waited.

Ok, ok. I got it. The first signal makes sense, but then the following price action will make me doubt the first signal. That’s what happens. Then, after that price will continue in the original direction, without me.

That’s what happens to me often. All I have to do is just be patient. Take my first signal, then just wait, no matter what. I need to keep practicing.

[ponponwei]

@dushimes

Another problem is that I can’t draw on my pictures. I guess I’d have to download a program that allows me to draw on pictures.

You could do this on TradingView!

@dushimes

It’s disappointing, but it’s not unmotivating.

I’m definitely gonna keep going.

Bleh can relate to this as I prepare to start my Chart Art thread with not one but TWO losses!