This is disappointing. I was practicing my retracement strategy, and that’s what I’m supposed to be focusing on right now.
It seems I’ve already missed one such trade. I’m more fearful than I anticipated.
I was thinking that a good routine for me would be to practice some of my charts prior to trading the real market. It’ll be a way to calibrate my mind before trading.
I finished collecting bear trend retracements, and now I’m collecting bull trend retracement samples.
Collecting samples of each will take much longer than I expected. The more I learn, the more I realise I DON’T know.
However, the more I study and learn, the more prepared I am for different trade setups. Onions don’t have infinite layers.
Patience, young padawan.
You know, to be honest, I’m studying a certain type of signal and it seems to be really just for shot-term trends, not long-term trends. Meaning, I’m thinking that studying this type of signal might not be worth the effort. These signs might be worth ignoring.
Perhaps, I should move on to a more significant signal.
Samurai trader it:triumph:
Best of luck young padawan.
I’m getting ready for the weekend. I got a big back of chips, and some dried mango.
Time to bust out some charts!
There’s a type of retracement trade that I really like, but it’s risky. However, the reward is very high, if I can get it.
I just had a thought. I’m working on trading efficiently, but perhaps I should include this risky strategy in my trading.
Trading is about making money–not just being structured. This is contradictory to what I thought just a couple months ago–that I should drop this strategy.
Maybe not!
Congrats on this new discovery! That’s an example of what I love about trading. It’s full of surprises.
One thing that surprised me recently is that I’m not going to take the NNFX course like I told you I would a while back. I ended up contradicting myself. 
Yup. It happens. It takes time to figure out what works. Just gotta keep an open mind.
I just recorded my monthly account balance. I’m above my November 2023 level. But barely.
This is the most stable my account has ever been. My live account was nose diving since day 1. And since I switched to demo, it continued to nose dive. But these last few months, it’s been stable.
I’m starting to understand why Steve369 said the first step is to stop losing money.
Patience, young padawan.
My first full day of practicing the hardest part of my strategy.
It’s left me really confused. But there MUST be a reason why a strategy works some times and not others.
That’s what I’ll have to figure out. It can’t be just getting angry (which I did). My task will be to uncover WHY. Take a break, chill. Then get back to it.
Patience, young padawan.
could you remind me, which type of strategy do you want to master?
It’s a simple price action strategy based on S/R levels.
However, different price action has different signs. Swings vs retracements. It’s a real doozy. But I’m getting there.
on daily time frame?
Yeah, D1.
I’m doing ok but there are times when I’m not sure what direction price is going in.
For example, price just bounced support and now it’s bullish. Easy, right? But what if it hits resistance from four months ago? Now, it’s bearish for about two weeks. But now, it starts dancing around and seems bullish again.
Then sudden it hits another resistance level. Now, you aren’t sure if it’s trying to go bullish or bearish. What if one of those bounces was a fakeout?
How do you know which one was a fakeout?
There are some signs that aren’t signs at all. But the strategy determines that.
Of course, for everyone, it’s different.
For some of my practice charts, I actually draw fake S/R lines just to confuse myself and test myself. I SHOULD know which S/R levels are worth paying attention to, and which ones I should ignore.
I’ve started collecting the charts that have confused me, and one day soon I’m gonna do some more analysis.
Actually, I think I’ve already collected such charts. I have to take look.
Forgive me for butting in here, but surely, isn’t this precisely where risk/money management comes into it?
We all know that trading is an exercise in probability and that no strategy works all the time. So the issue becomes ensuring that we gain more when are right than we lose when we are wrong?
We need to know approximately what our win/loss ratio is and what is the net outcome with any given R:R applied to that ratio.
The problems start occuring when our win/loss ratio becomes erratic and unstable. At that point we need to review the effectiveness of the strategy as a whole?
Just some thoughts. (I do still read your journal 
)
First: thanks for reading!!!
Second: you’re right about win/loss rates.
But what I’m talking about is why a trend breaks S/R vs bouncing it. There are tons of factors to consider. And that’s what I’m working on.
I think my problem is that for this strategy that I’m practicing there are multiple factors to consider at the same time. I can’t just look at the entry signal–I have to look at the conditions, as well. The conditions add context to the entry and exit.
Perhaps labeling everything can help. In the beginning, it can be difficult to carry so many thoughts in on mind at the same time.
¨Ok, this is a support level here, that’s a possible support level there, that’s a resistance level, this is a fakeout. This is a bullish sign, that’s a bearish sign…¨
Also, another factor I noticed is my disbelief. There can be unexpected price action that I should act on. It catches me by surprise, I doubt it, then I regret it.
I gotta keep in mind that I don’t have to know where price will be going long-term. I just have to follow one signal at a time.
If I see a trend, and I expect price to stay bearish for a while, then it gives a bullish signal, I can’t say ¨no¨. I just have to take the signal.
Yes there are many factors. But I think it is worth remembering that S/R levels do not control price (except to a limited extent through self-fulfillment when many traders are looking at the same thing), they are only a mirror reflecting where activity has previously stalled/reversed.
Price is ultimately moved by shifts in all those other fundamental factors like government/central bank policies, geopolitical factors, economic activity, etc. Trouble is, we cannot even define all those factors let alone predict their impact on price…and on top of that we have sentiment where traders are trying to do exactly that!
Imagine we have a huge flat grass field and our town decides to put a tennis court in the middle. They draw a set of white lines that determine the boundaries within which the game is played. But these lines do not physically control the ball in play, they only define the area within which the game is being played. Where the ball actually goes depends entirely on the players and how they hit it.
Imagine now that our town decides to replace the tennis court with a football pitch. Suddenly those original tennis court lines mean nothing and we have a whole new set of boundaries as a result of this decision. But, again, these new lines are only relevant as long as the pitch is for football.
Imagine then that a change of town council brings in a new boss - and he is a cricket fan… 
So we need to reflect on the overall background fundamentals and possible shifts in the goalposts. For example, the situation in the Red Sea and its possible impact on oil supplies. We need to be wary of shifts in the underlying pressures. Price action is not itself the pressure, it is the only the resultant outcome of those pressures. it will flow to wherever it is pushed regardless of what lines we draw.
So, ultimately, we are left with the situation that “the current levels are valid - for as long as they are valid” 
in the same as “the trend is your friend until the end”. Which is where the money management comes in limiting the loss on the breaks relative to the gains in between.
Of course, there is also the issue of what is the correct way of determining S/R. I am convinced that if 100 traders independently draw levels for the same product we would end up with 100 different charts. It all depends on timeframes used, high/lows, Fib levels, previous opens/closes, candle patterns, etc, etc, etc,
PA is not as easy as it sounds, but money/risk management is 
I had a small a-ha moment. It’s a step backwards, but a helpful one. It seems I have to separate the charts based on the surrounding conditions. After that I can analyze them better.
Right now, I have the same entry and exit concept, but in different conditions, and it’s confusing me like crazy.
I thought I could practice these charts and the answer would come to me. Not the case here. So, I’m take a small step back, collect some chart samples, separate them, then study them.
Patience, young padawan
exactly, That’s why I’d better keep studying so I can tell the difference!
