Trading Journey

Trading Discussion Trade Journals
1

I’m going to be keeping a journal based on ICT’s teachings. The goal is really just to consistently keep up a journal. I have been trading a few years without much success. This will be the first time I keep a real journal. I will be trading a very small live account. The current account value is approximately $180 down from a starting balance of $200.

My trading plan is below. I don’t know if it is good or not, but it helps me organize my thoughts and tasks.
Trading Plan
1st day of each quarter:
[ol]
[li] Re-check monthly S/R, Fibs and patterns
[/li][li] Review trade journal and trading plan
[/li][li] Check for monthly divergence
[/li][/ol]

1st of every month:
[ol]
[li] Re-check weekly S/R, fibs and patterns
[/li][li] Assess market structure
[/li][li] Check bond COT
[/li][li] Check 10 yr SMT
[/li][li] Fractals
[/li][li] Review trade journal and calculate profit or loss for the month
[/li][li] Mark monthly pivots and pivot/trinity confluence
[/li][li] Determine market profile
[/li][li] Check for weekly divergence
[/li][/ol]

15th and 30th of the month:
[ol]
[li] Check currency COT data
[/li][li] Compare yields GUKG10:IND, GDBR10:IND, USGG10yr:IND
[/li][li] Check for weekly fractals
[/li][li] Review seasonal tendencies
[/li][li] Check CRB/oil/gold SMT
[/li][li] Write down dates/time of important news on calendar
[/li][/ol]

Every Weekend:
[ol]
[li] Check OI on bonds and currencies - Sunday
[/li][li] Check for daily and 4hr SMT - Sunday
[/li][li] Stock index SMT - Sunday
[/li][li] Check for daily fractals - Sunday
[/li][li] Review S/R and market structure/flow - Sunday
[/li][li] If no trade was taken, journalize analysis - Friday
[/li][li] Mark weekly pivots and pivot/trinity confluence - Sunday
[/li][li] Update position of 18/40/150 EMA - Sunday
[/li][li] Check for daily divergence - Sunday
[/li][li] Determine market profile - Sunday
[/li][li] Check to see if any additional news items need to be added to calendar - Sunday
[/li][/ol]

Every day close and London open:
[ol]
[li] Check hourly S/R and market structure/flow- Close and London
[/li][li] Check for daily fractals- Close
[/li][li] Check for 4hr/1hr SMT- Close and London
[/li][li] Mark 2 closest supports and resistances- Close
[/li][li] Mark daily pivots and pivot/trinity confluence- London
[/li][li] Check for hourly/4hr divergence- Close and London
[/li][li] Mark Asian range high/low and ADR- London
[/li][li] Confirm times of news events – Close
[/li][li] Update Watchlist - Close
[/li][/ol]

Each Trade Entry:
[ol]
[li] Mental Balance
[/li][li] Market structure in favor
[/li][li] Market flow in favor
[/li][li] ADR not fulfilled for range expansion
[/li][li] Kill zone
[/li][li] Preferably below Asian range high for long
[/li][li] Preferably has divergence
[/li][li] At least 3 types of S/R
[/li][li] SMT
[/li][li] Journal Entry – reasons, profit target, negatives, SL, entry specifics
[/li][/ol]

Each Trade Exit:
[ol]
[li] Finish journal entry- outcome, what went well, what did not go well, lessons, followed plan?
[/li][/ol]

Risk: Each trade will risk a maximum of 2%. If a loss occurs risk will be reduced to the next lower tier, 2% > 1% > 0.5% > 0.25%. Risk will not increase until half the loss from the next higher tier is recovered.

Positioning: Each trade will be split into 2 equal positions. The first position profit target is 2:1 and the second position target will be left for a price action determined profit target.

Management: SL will be moved to breakeven when first high after entry is taken out for a long. If price trades below the 90%, consider closing the trade.

Trading hours:

  1. 2am – 3:30am
  2. 6am – 11am

The only thing different will be my risk. I am starting with 0.5% instead of 2% risk since I am already negative.

The journal will mainly be updated to reflect trading or at least once a week if there are no trades. This also means I probably will not respond promptly if you have a question.

I probably won’t be trading on Mondays for the next few weeks due to scheduling conflicts. I will update on Sunday or Monday of this week to reflect my current analysis.

Edit- Made list more readable.

2

I wish you all the best in your journey. I hope you don’t mind a little constructive criticism. Your overall plan and analysis is quite complex. If I had to accomplish all thise tasks I wouldn’t bother with trading. Trading is not so complex nor tedious. KISS really works. I trade a simple price action strategy based on daily charts. The only fundamentals I pay attention to are news announcements. I am aware of other fundamentals but they dont impact my technical analysis too much. A trading plan should have absolutely rock solid criteria for entries and exits (targets and stop losses). No ambiguity whatsoever! All the besr to you.

3

I am watching… good luck and good learning! :57:

4

I have a job interview today so this has to be a quick post.
Based on USD and bonds I feel a risk off market will be prominent over the next week or two. The USD is selling off after the SMT with EUR, perhaps down to 79.80.

I will be watching 1.61-1.612 on GBP and 1.298-1.299 on EUR for shorts. I would prefer to take a short on GBP over EUR. If EUR and GBP reach these levels the same time USD is reaching 79.80 I will look for SMT.

5

SMT has appeared with EUR making higher highs while GBP failing to make higher highs. USD also failed to make lower lows, it did make matching lows.

GBP has fulfilled the ADR while EUR has not yet. GBP made it up to R2 and just below previous week’s high/Friday’s high. It is trading above the Asian range high as well.

As we entered NY open kill zone I shorted GBP at approximately 1.6115
With a 30 pip SL at 1.61452, risk is approximately $0.90 split between two positions. One with 2 nano lots and one with 1.

The first likely resistance I will be watching is 1.6080. I will close one of the positions there.

The downsides to the trade I see are that momentum on the lower time frames has been bullish. PMI is due out soon. USD actually surpassed the low it made last Thursday.

Edit- I did not take a picture of the SMT, but it is visible even on an hourly chart.

6

Result: Stopped out for -30.

Did I follow the plan?: yes

What went well?: Initial move down, though EUR ended up being much weaker.

What went poorly?: Only moved 18 pips in my favor before reversing to consolidate and then move higher.

Risk on next trade: $0.45, 0.25%

7

I am starting a new job this week and the elections will make trading more difficult so I am taking the week off.

8

This is my only trade this week. I did not journalize it well. The new job is keeping me very busy. It was entered with 1 nano lot with a 35 pip stop, slightly less than 0.25% risk. I meant to enter at 1.2680, but I did not put in an entry order and ended up with 1.26868, approximately the 61.8.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

9

Closed at 1.27997 for $1.13 gain bringing balance to 180.67. I will leave risk on next trade at 0.25% which will be approximately $0.45.

10

On Friday GBP and EUR both made higher lows(forming intermediate lows) while USD made a higher high. EUR had an OTE on Friday which corresponded to the previous week’s low. During Thursday’s trading it also surpassed the previous Friday’s high. The USD also has some bearish counter-trend divergence on multiple time frames. GBP has also formed a bullish daily fractal. I am expecting this next week to be risk on at least for the first half.

Levels:
EUR- 1.266, 1.288, 1.2825, 1.28, 1.263
GBP- 1.591, 1.583, 1.5975, 1.604, 1.6175
USD- 80.87, 81.62, 81.79, 82

Interesting chart attached.

11

EUR has moved up almost 85 pips so far this week to between 1.28 and 1.283. This coincides with an OTE following the higher time frame direction down.

Entry:
1.28167 with 1 nano lot.
Risk:$0.30 less than 0.25%

Reasons:
At 4hr OTE, Weekly R1, EUR made higher high while GBP made lower and USD made a matching low.
SL:
1.28467
Profit target:
1.2730 opposing OTE
Negatives:
Flow has not changed to bearish yet. USD only made matching low instead of higher low. Bernanke will speak later today.

12

Result:
Stopped out at BE.

Did I follow the plan?:
yes
What went well?:
Moved down strongly in the Asian session.
What went poorly?:
Price reacted at the 61.8 and retraced back to entry.
Risk on next trade:
$0.45, approximately 0.25%

13

All three currencies are sitting at important fib levels right now. It is not clear to me which direction is more likely. GBP does have bearish divergence, but I don’t think that carries much weight. Market flow on 4hr is bullish on both GBP and EUR, bearish on USD. Will have to wait and see if the resistance holds.

Levels:
EUR- 1.288, 1.28, 1.299, 1.302, 1.307, 1.3138
GBP- 1.583, 1.588, 1.5965, 1.6175, 1.605
USD- 79.7, 79, 80.1, 81.2, 81.4

14

EUR was moving lower and USD was moving higher as GBP moved higher. I was hoping for GBP to move slightly higher to around 1.607. I expect GBP to follow downward so I will be looking for a short around the intraday OTE 1.604.

15

I had three trades last month(counting last couple days of October), 1 win, 1 loss and 1 BE. Total profit for the month is ten cents. Not much, but it is better than losing money.

All three currencies are still sitting around daily fib levels. There is risk off divergence on all three as well, possibly even the ICT stinger.

That being said they are coming off of weekly fractal pointing in the opposite direction. OI and COT are very mixed or neutral. The market structure on 4hr seems bullish as well as market flow. Seasonal charts support a risk on environment.

I think I will be looking for a bullish movement on EUR and GBP for the first part of the week. If we get SMT right on one of the fibs around mid-week I will probably go short.

Levels:
EUR- 1.3036, 1.299, 1.298, 1.2938, 1.288
GBP- 1.61, 1.607, 1.605, 1.5987, 1.5965
USD- 80.6, 80.4, 80.32, 80, 79.84

16

I entered a short at 1.31032 on the EUR earlier today with one nano lot. My SL is at 1.31432 for a risk of $0.40 or just under 0.25%. The trade has been going sideways since.

The GBP failed to make new highs while the USD was at OTE and still is. EUR is also at R2 for the week with bearish divergence on my indicator.

The main downside to the trade is that the EUR has already surpassed the 90% level and that higher time frame market flow is still bullish.

17

I have moved my stop to breakeven. I am watching the 1.3035 and 1.3020 levels as potential trouble areas. I intend to take profit just above 1.298 assuming it moves that far. 1.2970 is a confluence of the weekly pivot point and the 61 fib from last week’s low to this week’s high.

18

I closed this trade at 1.2983 for a gain of $1.20 or 3:1. I did not follow my plan well because I originally had a higher target that would have been hit sooner, but I changed mid trade.

What went well? Market flow changed and the news pushed the EUR down. GBP did not move down until must later.

What went poorly? Could have had a better entry and made about 20 pips more.

I will be increasing the risk on my next trade to 0.5% or about $0.90. I will be able to have more than one nano lot as well so I will be able to again take part of my trade off at various profit targets.

19

I expect a bullish move up to 1.61 for the GBP and 1.305 for EUR. Will be watching 80 on USD. These are just OTE levels. If price makes it to these levels I will be looking for a setup. I would not be opposed to a long trade up to those levels if we get a bullish setup early on.

20

I took a loss today of 0.5%. I left an order open without checking the news. I will detail the trade more tomorrow.

Edit: I noticed that GBP was not that close to making a new high and EUR was near new highs. I had other things to attend to and “didn’t want to miss the trade” so I put in an order at 1.306 with a SL at 1.309 and left the computer. Unfortunately, I did not check the news beforehand. When the trade triggered there was not SMT because the GBP moved up aggressively as well. I lost $0.91 or approximately 0.5%, new balance $180.96. I won’t be setting orders before SMT occurs again.