Trading over the line /

Hello everyone.

I have been practicing trading for many years, trading with real money for a shorter time. Consistency has always been a problem and being able to make ‘a decent amount’ per day is what I wanted to achieve.

I understand that like surfers waiting to catch a wave, some days have more movement then others. But after much trial and error, staring at weekly, daily 4hr contemplating if it will go up or down and listening to the daily forecast … the truth is …

Nobody really knows …. The people giving the daily forecast will say something like … if price reaches this point it will go higher, and if it reaches this point we should go lower. I understand about pull backs in a larger trend…. But where does a larger trend end ? It ends when the market tells us it ends…

Ok leaving the weekly and daily alone this is what makes sense to me … I will use a 15min or 30min chart with a 20 MA and that’s all …. I use a line chart. I don’t want to be glued to the screen so will leave the faster time frames out if it.

Here is the earth shattering conclusion I have come to …

  1. If price goes above the 20 MA it will usually go higher.

  2. If price goes below the 20 MA it will usually go lower.

Scroll back and look at your chart…or look at the above chart. yes there are whipsaws especially on the faster time frames, but if we just entered when price crosses over the line, we would have been in profit each time…is it that simple ? The charts don’t lie… it’s there in black and white. How can it be that simple and yet most of us are losing money??

The truth is price does not cross over straight away it will hover around the MA line and wiggle about like a worm on a hook until it’s ready to move.

This makes me anxious. So I will only use the buy or sell orders. Regardless of how you ‘feel’ the market will do what it wants to do.

it seems too simple right ? How can that be ?

Most of my losses were caused by human error… counter trading …,buying when it’s below the line… selling when it’s above and then getting caught !
Fear and greed .

I have a regular job. I want a mechanical type system that I just repeat over and over fully understanding that I will have losses, but they are expected and I know I will have winners and be profitable most of the time…

Emotions. Emotions are bad ! Take emotions out of trading. Don’t try to pick tops and bottoms. As humans we are biased, I want it to go up because I’m in a buy trade. I want it to go down because I’m selling.
I want to detach myself completely from this.
I just want the market to move, liquidity is all we want… up, down it’s all the same… flat is just waiting … but we want movement, enough to profit everyday.

Entry: buy or sell stop order waiting above or below the line.

If price hits our buy order…we will also have a sell order below as insurance, in case it does a 180. And vice versa. When price moves away from the MA line we can adjust the opposite order my moving it higher or lower…

15mins I use a stop loss… on Friday I got whipsawed multiple times. I could have reduced these. For example when it goes into profit, put a stop loss just slightly above the trade entry price. So we come out with a tiny profit if it comes back or no profit or a winner if it moves substantially in the right direction.

The 30 mins is much better for avoiding whipsaws…
also I just want to place my set up and leave it. How many times gave you entered a trade feeling confident only to find out later it did a complete U-turn and went the opposite way. I anticipate and prepare for this, so that if it does happen we are in the trade and going with the market… will always have an order on the opposite side.

I would be grateful to chat with other people who trade like this… simple hand off no emotion …
Of course we can flesh out stop loss and a few other things… thank you

You may wanna go to demo to avoid further losses until you can reach consistent profitability.

Are you trading on your phone?

Its simple why most traders lose money. Its because most of them sell when price rises, and buy when price falls. Once they accept these rules as the basis for trading, its almost impossible to overlay any kind of strategy which compensates enough to make a profit.

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I am trading on my iPhone …I will demo trade until feb 15th / then start again. I don’t blow up accounts and tend to break even or achieve a very modest profit…

It seems very obvious now…but counter trading is a big part of why I was losing up until now… and that is also part of being impatient. I am not saying you can’t be successful counter trading, but I don’t want to have to monitor trades and be anxious when I get it wrong.

The main issue for me is 15m or 30 m or where to put the stop loss ( below the previous high/ low ?)

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stop that

If you can get a desktop computer or laptop, I suggest you get it. You can’t see things properly on your phone.

Unless, you think you can. In that case, carry on!


I do intend to get a laptop or something with a better screen / but I am not staring at charts and studying technical data. I want to reduce the time I look at the screen.

It passes over the MA and my trade is opened… that’s all I’m doing. Setting a price trap and leaving it … I think you could literally drive yourself crazy by staring at charts all day and with the rollercoaster of emotions that goes with it … shapes patterns …

when you think about it … price always comes back to the center MA line and moves outwards either up or down … so my entries are based around the center.

In the past I liked the look of BB bands and entering on the outer line because supposedly it’s over bought or over sold … but that’s if it’s ranging … if it’s trending and you don’t have a stop loss you will get swept away… the trouble is I have to be able to recognize trending or ranging periods and that night mean lots of screen time.

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It’s all a process, bro. Good luck.

Yes ! Exactly !! I have learned this the hard way.
So I focus on the center area. My buy or sell gets triggered and off it goes… I want to focus on risk / stop loss / 15 or 30 min or both etc

Yes ! Totally agree.

Unfortunately, it’s just not that easy because the MA is not a fixed line, it moves with price. If it was fixed then we’d all be rich.

You mentioned that trading against the trend has been a big reason for losses, then maybe waiting for a pullback below then back up across the MA in an uptrend can give you better results.

You could also try shortening you trades and accepting smaller profits, because this strategy will likely present many trade opportunities. This is just a thought and would work well with a higher win rate.

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Thank you for your reply… sorry for any confusion, of course I know the MA is not fixed. What I meant to say is that price crosses over the MA multiple times per day, and when it does cross over, it generally continues.

The MA moves with price, of course you can trade pull backs and go in the direction of price … but I want to set stop orders and walk away… of course you can set a stop order and anticipate a pull back … which might result in more trade entries… but looking at the chart over previous days… look how much price moves after it crosses the MA… sure there are shorter movements and it can reverse… but there is a lot of movement there everyday.

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30 min Waiting for a cross over

This is for one day Friday Feb 3rd Demo account

First off I would not be able to place 0.4 or 0.5 with an account with 100,000 yen balance. It would need to be 3 or 4 x times that amount. I had sone early loses in the 15 mins whipsawed as prices moved back and forth across the MA /

Many people say don’t trade on Friday, but that day was a rollercoaster with lots of nice movement.
If I had a live account with 400,000 and made the 84,000 yen profit, I would have been very happy indeed.

I am hoping to make about 40,000 yen per day ( I won’t complain if it’s less on slower days )
I think 100,000 yen or $1,000 a day is real baller money! USD1,000 is really a milestone…
In December 2022 I I managed about 2 weeks in a row of daily profit averaging about 30,000 yen a day.
But I was trading pull backs / fast time frame and glued to the screen. It proved that I could make money consistently. This was s big deal for me. But I prefer a set it and leave it method like the above.

I look forward to seeing your results over the next few months.

I guess to important thing with this strategy is to time your entries right and keep a tight SL so you don’t miss the next one.

Best of luck to you.

It’s all a process, bro. Good luck.

It seems to me you tend to be trend following and swing trading. With the 15M & 30M charts, have you determined what should be your stop loss and take profit level. If you do not want to spend a lot of time looking the screen – and that means you are not actively managing the trade. And nothing wrong with it, however, you need to figure out what is the average move for the asset within in your trade period.

I suggest you also add 8 EMA (T-line) use S/R or trendline and ‘M’ or ‘W’ / Head & Shoulders patterns or dojis / engulfing candles for your entries and exits (to determine either continuation of trend or reversals so that you can exploit it or avoid).

You can also use HA candles.

And the last point I’ll make is, forget about picking tops and bottoms! Instead, have a fixed SL and PT, even if it means a guess. I think you can earn sufficient money by just aiming for 20 pips a day and compounding.

Good luck my friend.


Hello Toykotrader,

by reading between the lines I can see you are wondering where and how to set a stop loss…

Well, i would suggest to place a stop loss just belowe the last last/recent swing low (assuming you are to enter a long trade) but since you use short frames like M30 or even M15 this all gets kinda difficult. I think you will be stopped out quiet often.

So in this case placing a stop loss by multiply the ATR by 1.5 could make more sense.

I also read that you ain’t got that much time for checking your screens and you just want to make easy and fast money just by placing orders and leave. Ok, why not? But I don’t think it will work on your so-loved short timeframes. A 20 Period MA also generates too many false and old/slow signals to enter a trade on those timeframes… You could still trade the M30 but how about switching to H4 or D1 first to determine the overall trend and then switching back to M30 and only enter trades in the direction of the higher trend, confirmed by your MA20 crossover?


I agree with the H4 timeframe. It is best for traders who don’t want to spend too much time at the screen. I’ve seen where the price does respect the MA20 line however there are other forces at play and things to consider. Presently working on an MA20 cross system myself.

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I did the MA8/MA20 combo. Its interesting but there are times when the cross is late and you end up entering trades later than you should. So now I’m using the 20MA only. Also added S/R. The patterns you mentioned do make sense. Vasily Trader on Youtube swears by them and often gives tutorials on trading them. All in all your advice is generally solid. Oliver Velez has some good tips on Youtube as well. I wouldnt recommend any timeframe below H1 unless a trader is scalping.

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Becoming profitable requires lots of backtesting and studying charts (and news, etc). Screen time is essential is the beginning stages. Are you comfortable doing that on your phone?

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