Hello everyone.
I have been practicing trading for many years, trading with real money for a shorter time. Consistency has always been a problem and being able to make ‘a decent amount’ per day is what I wanted to achieve.
I understand that like surfers waiting to catch a wave, some days have more movement then others. But after much trial and error, staring at weekly, daily 4hr contemplating if it will go up or down and listening to the daily forecast … the truth is …
Nobody really knows …. The people giving the daily forecast will say something like … if price reaches this point it will go higher, and if it reaches this point we should go lower. I understand about pull backs in a larger trend…. But where does a larger trend end ? It ends when the market tells us it ends…
Ok leaving the weekly and daily alone this is what makes sense to me … I will use a 15min or 30min chart with a 20 MA and that’s all …. I use a line chart. I don’t want to be glued to the screen so will leave the faster time frames out if it.
Here is the earth shattering conclusion I have come to …
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If price goes above the 20 MA it will usually go higher.
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If price goes below the 20 MA it will usually go lower.
Scroll back and look at your chart…or look at the above chart. yes there are whipsaws especially on the faster time frames, but if we just entered when price crosses over the line, we would have been in profit each time…is it that simple ? The charts don’t lie… it’s there in black and white. How can it be that simple and yet most of us are losing money??
The truth is price does not cross over straight away it will hover around the MA line and wiggle about like a worm on a hook until it’s ready to move.
This makes me anxious. So I will only use the buy or sell orders. Regardless of how you ‘feel’ the market will do what it wants to do.
it seems too simple right ? How can that be ?
Most of my losses were caused by human error… counter trading …,buying when it’s below the line… selling when it’s above and then getting caught !
Fear and greed .
I have a regular job. I want a mechanical type system that I just repeat over and over fully understanding that I will have losses, but they are expected and I know I will have winners and be profitable most of the time…
Emotions. Emotions are bad ! Take emotions out of trading. Don’t try to pick tops and bottoms. As humans we are biased, I want it to go up because I’m in a buy trade. I want it to go down because I’m selling.
I want to detach myself completely from this.
I just want the market to move, liquidity is all we want… up, down it’s all the same… flat is just waiting … but we want movement, enough to profit everyday.
Entry: buy or sell stop order waiting above or below the line.
If price hits our buy order…we will also have a sell order below as insurance, in case it does a 180. And vice versa. When price moves away from the MA line we can adjust the opposite order my moving it higher or lower…
15mins I use a stop loss… on Friday I got whipsawed multiple times. I could have reduced these. For example when it goes into profit, put a stop loss just slightly above the trade entry price. So we come out with a tiny profit if it comes back or no profit or a winner if it moves substantially in the right direction.
The 30 mins is much better for avoiding whipsaws…
also I just want to place my set up and leave it. How many times gave you entered a trade feeling confident only to find out later it did a complete U-turn and went the opposite way. I anticipate and prepare for this, so that if it does happen we are in the trade and going with the market… will always have an order on the opposite side.
I would be grateful to chat with other people who trade like this… simple hand off no emotion …
Of course we can flesh out stop loss and a few other things… thank you
