Lets take a look at Gold here (XAU/USD)
CSI = ADXR x ATR(14) x K
= 23.47 x 2241 x 0.0044815 (K factor for Gold)
= 253.6
The ATR for gold is actualy 22.41 dollars which is 2241 cents. Use this in the equation to help us get the CSI. So for Gold, the ATR has to be multiplied by 100. That’s the way I see it…
On to Silver…
Ok. Well. I promised you all that I’d not ONLY tell you about the good but also about the bad too (although I’m not quite sure WHAT this post ‘falls’ under)!!!
Anyway: I’ve just closed out ALL my positions for a 10.33% gain on capital since Sunday night.
Yes: I’m a bit ‘peeved’ with myself for doing this BUT I at least have my reasons:
1 - I only started using ADXR to ‘pick’ instruments from late Monday / Tuesday this week. Because of this I landed up with a short trade on EUR/JPY on Sunday / early Monday and had I been using ADXR to ‘pick’ instruments I would NEVER have had this position open and all it was doing was weighing on the other profitable positions. Lesson learned. ADXR works well to ‘filter’ the instruments (and I would imagine that once we’ve all put this CSI thing ‘to rest’ this will be an even better ‘filter’).
2 - I ‘bailed’ on my four hour Gold Volatility System trade earlier today and could have KICKED myself for doing this. I was looking at Oil and was almost certain that Oil would ‘tank’ today but I could not have been more wrong if I tried (the theory being that Gold would have ‘tanked’ with Oil). I justified my ‘bailout’ because I saw (at least I THOUGHT I SAW) a signal from the Swing Index System to go short Gold so I figured: ‘Why wait for the price to drop below the Volatility System’s SAR and just waste pips i.e. stop and reverse now as per the Swing Index System’!!! Wrong on BOTH counts!!! The Swing Index System’s signal to go short Gold was valid only for YESTERDAY not today AND the four hour Gold Volatility System trade would have kept me in the ‘right’ way right up until now as I’m typing this message. The point of this: if you open a position based on one of the systems LEAVE IT ALONE i.e. don’t try to ‘mix’ them. Lesson learned.
While I know (or don’t THINK) I should be ‘beating myself up’ over closing these positions early at a small profit i.e. 10% per week ain’t bad is it??? (that’s more than 40% per month when compounded weekly???) it means that I broke my rule of following the systems through ‘till the bitter or profitable end’ ‘no matter what’. Dissapointed in myself??? Yes I am!!! Did I make the right decision??? Yes I think so!!! Will I be MIGHTY ‘pis*ed’ if Gold closes at $800 an ounce tonight and oil ‘tanks’ to $75 a barrell??? HELL YES!!!
Glad to see there are actually other people working and trading. I am sure i will be able to pull it off.
My book should be here around the 18th of April and my account should be set up soon. I still need to send all the documentation off.
cant wait to get that book so i can speaking the language; all seems so foreign at the moment!!
Take Care
Eddie
I�ve been thinking about how much I�ll make before I close out my positions and I came up with this. This is assuming you are making your trades as a percentage of your capitol. It could be summed up better but you get the point.
% gain on Initial Capitol
1st week
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
% gain on the following week
2nd week
10%=11% due to the previous weeks gain
20%=24% � �
30%=39%� �
40%=56%� �
50%=75%� �
3rd week 4th week
10%=12% 10%=13%
Just imagen compounding that over 3 years on 10k. That would be the equivalent of a 401k plan over 30 years, roughly.
Hello Randont,
I love your optimisim, I really do, but I personally dont like to think in these ways. Remember, anything that can make money so quickly, such as high leverage etc, can also work the other way and take it away from you.
Concentrate on your skills. Reading J Carters book the other night he was saying that as soon as traders started thinking in terms " I need to make this amount of money so I can buy that…", well, they were pretty much fck…d from that point on.
Regards
Boca
Good (early) Morning Everyone (it’s 05h52 here)!!!
Hey Boca:
TOLD YOU!!! It’s a good book??? It’s THOSE types of things I was talking about as being the ‘value’ in the book!!!
OK: for what it’s worth I have now done LOADS of work here tonight and I’ve come to the conlusion that if you DON’T want to use the CSI calculation but only want to use the ADXR value instead then DO USE ADXR(7) and NOT the default of 14. I noticed last night / this morning that after going through a VERY long list of instruments on which I have VALID SI System entry signals I started to notice that there were some instruments where I KNOW I should be looking at positions on and others where I KNOW I’d be wasting my time. The problem is that with ADXR(14) all the instruments where I felt I SHOULD be looking at positions on did not ‘feature’ so I compared ADXR(14) to ADXR(7) and spotted the differences immediately. It would appear that in todays (forex???) market ADX(14) and ADXR(14) react too slowly (I’ve heard and read this before somewhere else by the way). It would appear that using ADXR(7) is ‘the way to go’!!! Already tonight three orders have been ‘hit’ and they’re ALL green right now!!! (So I DON’T feel so bad about closing my positions yesterday anymore BUT still feel I let myself down BUT followed some of those trades through and it would appear that I didn’t ‘miss’ anything either)!!!
Hello again,
I wanted to include this in my above message but while I was ‘finishing it off’ this morning we had ANOTHER power failure here!!! (We’re becoming the ‘laughing stock’ here let me tell you)!!!
Anway: seeing that I’ve nothing better to do than add posts here using my notebook:
As far as ‘profit targets’ are concerned:
I DO agree to NOT watch your account balance (well at least not to see how much you’re making but DO monitor your margin percentage levels of course) BUT my problem is two fold:
1 - Since I’ve been using these systems I’ve grown ‘accustomed’ to +100% gains so when I ‘clear out’ with 10.33% I feel ‘let down’.
2 - I now have ‘clients’ to worry about and a ‘10% guarantee’ SO this puts the pressure on. Having said that: here’s the ‘gazillion dollar’ question: do you (I) continue to trade ‘clients’ money after I’ve made the ‘guaranteed 10%’ for the month (which CAN be accomplished in a day or two most times) OR do I CONTINUE to trade to maximise theirs (and my) profits (remember I’m taking 50% of the profits made over and above the ‘10% guarantee’)??? It’s a question that I never thought would worry me or would have to ask but ‘what would YOU do’ (anyone)??? I mean to say as things stood yesterday I could ‘shut up shop’ as far as the clients are concerned and only trade their accounts at the begiining of next month again. See my point???
And by the way: as I type it SURE looks like ADXR(7) is ‘the cut of my jib’ (Boca will understand that phrase)!!! Put it this way: I’m already ‘up’ past my ‘loathesome’ 10.33% from yesterday!!!
Anyway: all just 'food for thought (and HOPEFULLY we’ll have utility power restored in the next couple of minutes SO THAT I CAN HAVE SOME HOT COFFEE)!!! (I hope all you World Cup Soccer fans don’t mind watching the final by candlelight)!!!
By the way Nick:
I’ve been meaning to ask you:
Is your Gold VS trade still open (daily, short)??? By my calculations it should be. Just wondering.
Kin el! Dale, If you’re saying you can take 10% plus a month without too much trouble, that’s pretty impressive in my book!
What’s with all the power outages in South Africa anyway? What’s going on?
I’ll take a look at ADXR(7) and see what I think. I still couldn’t figure out how I was getting such a difference between ADX levels between different brokers though.
And one more thing, I was on Delta a few hours back but seems I got lost again. I really want to like it but it seems we are just not a good match… I’ll keep plugging away though.
more later.
Hello.
Well that’s my point. 10% per month (with the Swing Index System is 'a walk in the park no bullsh*t). But it MY case remember that the client gets the WHOLE 10% i.e. in order for me to make commission I have to make more than that for it to be worthwhile for me (otherwise I may as well just trade my own account). Anyway: it’s ‘symantics’ I suppose.
SA Power!!! Our ‘new’ goverment in its ‘infinite wisdom’ decided to ignore the ‘experts’ a couple of years ago when they were told that they had to spend some money on upgrading the infrastructure and they chose to ignore this advice and pay themselves some ‘fat’ bonuses instead!!! Now we’re sitting with the 'sht’ i.e. South Africa is just ‘growing’ in ‘leaps and bounds’ and NOBODY figured that they’d need the power supply to keep up with the growth!!! Well fucking done chaps!!! So now they have to ‘load shed’ i.e. sort of ‘share’ power countrywide at certain time every week so as to not overload the ‘grid’ (and THIS done by the way when they’re EXPORTING power to our neighbouring countries at a discounted rate)!!! I mean we have a ‘power report’ on one of our radio stations here every morning. A POWER REPORT!!! WHERE ON EARTH have you EVER heard of that (well OK maybe in Malawi or Kenya) but CERTAINLY does NOT belong on the radio here!!!
Well back to business (now that I’ve got my ‘bit*h session’ out of the way):
I’ve attached a .PDF file for you to look at. Basically it’s pairs where I got either entry signals or stop and reverse signals on from the Swing Index System. The pairs are sorted by ADRX(7). I placed orders for the top 6 majors (the ones in ‘grey’) and as of RIGHT NOW most of those orders have been executed and the % gain on the capital from yesterday is 26.35%!!! Compare the charts for the pairs with the highest ADXR(7) and then the pairs with the highest ADXR(14) and you’ll see what I mean (reading taken as of yesterday when the SI System signals were generated). From what I can see ADXR(14) is too slow to react to our markets today BUT ADXR(7) seems to be a totally ‘different story’.
As far as Delta is concerned: THAT IS WHY I HAVE YM ‘my mate’!!! All ya need to do is call!!!
Edit:
Tell you what: at the end of the month I will email a trading statement as printed directly from one of my clients accounts for those who may be interested (talk about ‘putting your ba*ls on the line’). I’m NOT going to post it here as I don’t think it’s for ‘public consumption’. Also: ONLY to babypips members and THEN only to those I sort of ‘know’. The reason I’m telling you this is because these gains DO appear ‘too good to be true’ (and that IS the feeling that I got in the beginning) but they’re in front of me ALL DAY EVERY DAY and it’s been happening just TOO consistently now for it to be ‘luck’ (I sincerely HOPE SO anyway)!!! (I have to check that this is alright with my business partner and my guarantors by the way).
7 day adxr.pdf (10.4 KB)
Hi Dale. To answer your question, yes my short VS trade with gold is still open. On AUD/JPY the price finally closed above the SAR point a few days ago and I actually reversed to long. I know I said I was going to quit with aud/jpy, but I think this time I am going to use the di+/di- cross to get out, just to see how it goes. I have to say also, just looking at my daily charts, AUD/JPY seems to trend very nicely, at least in the last year or so. Right now the trade is around break-even. I also still have my long usd/cad trade open, which after being down as much as 150 pips or so is now starting to come back, it’s only down about 35 pips now. USD/CAD has been ranging lately, it probably isn’t the best instrument to be in, but when I entered the trade the adx was quite good, so I’m going to hang on to it and see what happens. I think what I’m going to do is maybe follow one or two instruments for each system, that way I don’t have to worry about lot sizes and the “weighting issue” like before when I was using the TBP system with 10 pairs. Here’s my preliminary choices… let me know what you think…
TBP system: Gold and EUR/JPY
Volatility: AUD/JPY and USD/CAD
SI: GBP/JPY and Gold
Morning all,
Thanks for that PDF file Dale. Very interesting.
I was on Delta again last night and this morning and I did eventually find a way to get the instruments set up the way I wanted. More about that when I see you on YM. Thanks for all your help though.
Ok, lets talk about ADXR. As I understand it, but please correct me if I am wrong, the ADXR (as outlined by the man in the book) is:-
ADXR = (ADX(14) today + ADX(14) 14 days ago) / 2
Correct Edmundo?? That’s what I thought it was anyway.
so…
You are suggesting, if I understand you correctly, is to calculate ADXR like so:-
ADXR = (ADX(7) today + ADX(7) 14 days ago / 2
I got that right?? Just checking we are on the same page here. I have put and ADX(14) and an ADX(7) on my charts and I can see the difference.
Best Regards
Boca
All,
There is another thing I have noticed about this indicator.
On my OANDA platform, the ADX value always seems to be a good bit lower than what it is on my other platforms (DELTA, GCI and MT4). The difference is considerable in some cases so I would just be careful (Chirules) if you are using OANDA to get the ADX and ADXR. It is just an observation but I have not figured out why it is the case.
Regards
Boca
Hey folks (I’m feeling ALMOST ‘human’ again Boca)!!!
Nick:
All sounds good to me. However: I’d like you to try using the ADXR(7) to ‘pick’ pairs to trade. It’s working well for me I can tell you (by the way Boca: as I suspected the losses this morning are back in profit would you believe). Just take a look. Remember that with all (these) systems you need movement and it would appear that this is what ADX/ADXR/CSI ‘guarantee’.
And seeing that you brought up ADX/+DI/-DI I want you all to take a look at something in the book (on page 47 at the bottom i.e. ‘the Extreme Point Rule’). Read it and then tell me how many people do you think are trading using ADX/+DI/ -DI incorrectly??? The point I’m trying to make here (for those of you who may be following this thread without the book) is that you CANNOT just ‘pick an indicator’ and start trading off of it unless you’ve ‘done your homework’!!! I’ve always thought that trading using ADX/+DI/-DI was a waste of time BUT add ‘the Extreme Point Rule’ into the ‘mix’ and suddenly you have another trading ‘system’ that actually works!!!
Boca:
I answered (at least) this question for you on YM i.e. ADXR(7) i.e. no ‘14’s’ but all ‘7’s’ (and it was a ‘stretch’ at the time let me tell ya)!!!
Seeing that you enjoyed my .PDF so much I thought I’d attach another one. I’ve ‘removed’ the ADXR(14) column because I’m happy to ‘standardise’ on ADXR(7) and I’ve replaced it with the entry signal being given to me by the SI System (either new entry points or stop and reverse signals). Again: check the charts and you’ll see just how ‘powerful’ the use of ADXR can be i.e. compare the highest ranking pair to the lowest ranking pair and you’ll see where very clearly where there is PLENTY of movement and where there is NO movement (range bound).
(And on the subject of the SI System: I don’t think you can beat this system!!! At one point yesterday there were HUGE profits showing and then HUGE losses and as I type the HUGE losses have turned to profit again and I reckon I’ll get back to the HUGE profits that were showing yesterday and maybe then some by the close today. There is not another system in the WORLD that I personally know of that would NOT have stopped you out yesterday for some ‘spectacular’ losses. What it HAS ONCE AGAIN demonstrated to me is the importance of NOT overtrading your account and sticking to (at very least) Wilder’s money management rules)!!!
SI System Entries 11042008 0000.pdf (10.2 KB)
Evening all!
Friday night here so almost time for a few Gin and Tonics!
.
Glad the SI system has swung back in your favour Dale. And thanks again for the latest PDF table.
On another note, I see Delta is up and running again and I think I’m slowly getting the hang of it now. At least all the instruments that are there and the charting. All good.
We spoke on messenger about the TBP system before. Doing it rightly or wrongly, I have had 4 trades and 3 of them hit the profit target. The other one reversed without hitting the target or stop for only a minor loss. I have 1 more position still open. Looking good so far.
I’m onto the Reaction chapter now in the book so I could be on the SI next week.
Best Regards
Boca
I’ve not looked at the book yet, but I’m fairly sure it says that when the +DI and -DI lines cross, the next time period must pass the extreme point of the day of the cross! Do I get a lolly??!
All the best
Boca
Well DONE (at least I THINK that I understand what you’re trying to say)!!!
My point is this: before I got to ‘grips’ with this book I (like GAZILLIONS of others who I can almost guarantee are doing right now) would have based my initial entry and then stop and reverse entries on the +DI/-DI cross alone. Take a good look at any chart you like using any period for ADX that you like and see what the ‘danger’ of this is??? Without the ‘Extreme Point Rule’ in place you could conceivably hold on to a single losing position with NO end in sight to the point of disaster!!! And if THAT’S not bad enough look at the profit saved or losses negated by using the ADX line itself (correctly) for an exit as opposed to waiting for the +DI/-DI cross (this being covered on the next page)!!!
Again: one word of warning about the TBP System!!! Only trade ‘like for like’ pairs e.g. ???/JPY or USD/??? at any given time i.e. pairs where the value per pip movement is approximately the same. The problem is the HUGE stops. If you’re trading (for example) EUR/USD and GBP/JPY and EUR/USD hits the TP target and GBP/JPY gets stopped out then you’re in a ‘world of sh*t’ let me tell you.
Edit:
By the way Boca: I read your answer again and I’m NOT convinced of its ‘merit’!!! GO READ THE BOOK!!!
(And PLEASE do me a favour: take it easy tonight with the G&T my man. YOU DO NOT want to feel tomorrow like I do today I can ASSURE you)!!!
Okay Ladies and Gentlemen and Boys and Girls!!!
I’m out for the week (unless any new orders that were placed last night get hit of course)!!!
Results:
Percentage gain on capital at the beginning of the month: 32.04%
and
Percentage gain on capital at the beginning of the week: 30.08%
Call me a ‘chicken’ for closing trades early BUT it’s Friday AND if I can average around 30% per week from now on then you can’t say fairer than that now can you!!! You’ll note that (obviously) the gain from last week was not as much as this weeks gain BUT I only started using the ADXR on Tuesday this week and I can tell you that it appears to make ALL the difference!!!
Happy clients!!! Happy me!!! And a BIG ‘thank you’ to Mr J. Welles Wilder Jnr. and ‘you lot’!!!
Good (Saturday) Morning All!!!
Hope you’re all having a good weekend (how’re you feeling today Boca???)!!!
I’m attaching another updated .PDF again for your ‘perusal’ (I’m not going to keep doing this everyday i.e. by now anyone using any of Wilder’s trading systems will see what I’m trying to demonstrate as far as using ADXR to ‘filter’ entries is concerned).
What I’m STARTING to notice (just by the way) is something that I think starts to ‘come over time’ i.e. in addition to using ADXR to ‘filter’ your entries you also have to use a BIT of ‘intellect’ as opposed to ‘blindy’ acting on the signals. For example: you’ll notice that my third highest rated pair is EUR/GBP and the signal is long. Well: you could not get me to go long EUR/GBP EVEN WITH YOUR MONEY let alone mine!!! In other words it is my ‘belief’ that this pair HAS to correct soon so what’s the point of opening a position JUST because you got a signal to do so and then will probably end up having to stop and reverse not too long afterward for a loss. Of course: let’s face it I could be wrong and EUR/GBP might reach parity but I’ve learned to rather ‘err’ on the side of caution as opposed to just taking a trade ‘because I can’ (it’s AMAZING how ‘cautious’ one becomes when your also trading ‘other peoples money’)!!! And besides: as you’ve probably noticed the SI System generates LOADS of trades on a daily basis so I can assure you that you’ll never be ‘out of the market’ at any given time. Anyway: more good examples are GBP/BGN and GBP/NOK (I ignore all the ???/ZAR entries i.e. just ‘for show’) i.e. both short entries BUT I can’t see the GBP depreciating forever and if you look at the charts both of these pairs seem to have encountered major resistance on the down side so going short here (again in my opinion) would NOT be ‘prudent’ just yet I don’t think. Also: these examples are a very good reason to NOT trade on Sundays from the open either i.e. the GBP moves down with stocks and the Dow dropped -253 points on Friday and the Dow ALSO just does not KEEP on dropping so all you need is a rally in the Dow on Monday and any short GBP/??? and EUR/??? positions will turn to losses (which by the way is the ‘scientific’ method I used to close out yesterday at my +30% gain or whatever i.e. I tracked the Dow using Pivot Levels and the moment the Dow got to S2 I closed out and took profit. Yes: in retrospect the Dow proceeded to drop another -100 points to S3 after I closed out so I WOULD have made more BUT I’m LEARNING to accept what I’ve made graciously i.e. there will ALWAYS be profitable trades with Wilder’s systems and, like I said yesterday, +30% on the week / month is nothing to be ‘sniffed at’)!!!
(By the way: for those of you who MAY be monitoring this thread and do not have ‘the book’ or understand the SI System DO NOT try and trade these signals that I’ve posted over the last three days i.e. if you don’t know how the SI System works and you try to just ‘jump in’ based on the information I’ve posted here I can assure you you’ll end up in ‘hot water’)!!!
SI System Entries 12042008 0000.pdf (10.3 KB)
Hi Dale, when you say I should follow the adx(7) to enter trades, do you mean I should keep track of all of the pairs and then only enter trades on the 2 or 3 that have the highest adx values that day? I can see how this would work well on the systems where new trades are opened more frequently (like the SI). So you could have signals to enter trades with the SI on say, 8 pairs, but you only actually take the trades on the ones with the 2 highest adx values that day. Does this make sense and is this what you are basically doing? I looked at that pdf file you posted and that’s what it looks like to me, except you have the top 6 instead of the top 2 or 3…